Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Renal cell cancer:Nurses' role in prevention and management

In both the UK and throughout Europe, more patients are presenting with renal cell cancer (RCC), also known as renal cell carcinoma or kidney cancer. The overall survival rate varies depending on tumour grade, nodal involvement and metastasis. For those with metastasis survival drops to 10%. This article explores the risk factors associated with RCC diagnosis and staging, treatments including drugs and procedures and the role of the nurse in diagnosis and accurate assessment. Nurses are ideally suited to consider the physical, functional, social, and emotional status of their patients In addition, it is essential that the nurse has an understanding of new pharmaceutical therapies, which have been licensed to treat RCC, and a sound knowledge of the possible side effects and nursing management associated with these drugs.

External validation of the OHTS-EGPS model for predicting the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma in ocular hypertensives

To independently evaluate and compare the performance of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) prediction equation for estimating the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in four cohorts of adults with ocular hypertension.

Prior Autoimmune Disease and Risk of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance and Multiple Myeloma:A Systematic Review

Background: Several observational studies have investigated autoimmune disease and subsequent risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and multiple myeloma. Findings have been largely inconsistent and hindered by the rarity and heterogeneity of the autoimmune disorders investigated. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to evaluate the strength of the evidence linking prior autoimmune disease and risk of MGUS/multiple myeloma.

Methods: A broad search strategy using key terms for MGUS, multiple myeloma, and 50 autoimmune diseases was used to search four electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science) from inception through November 2011.

Results: A total of 52 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 32 were suitably comparable to perform a meta-analysis. “Any autoimmune disorder” was associated with an increased risk of both MGUS [n = 760 patients; pooled relative risk (RR) 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14–1.75] and multiple myeloma (n>2,530 patients; RR 1.13, 95% CI, 1.04–1.22). This risk was disease dependent with only pernicious anemia showing an increased risk of both MGUS (RR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.21–2.31) and multiple myeloma (RR 1.50; 95% CI, 1.25–1.80).

Conclusions: Our findings, based on the largest number of autoimmune disorders and patients with MGUS/multiple myeloma reported to date, suggest that autoimmune diseases and/or their treatment may be important in the etiology of MGUS/multiple myeloma. The strong associations observed for pernicious anemia suggest that anemia seen in plasma cell dyscrasias may be of autoimmune origin.

Impact: Underlying mechanisms of autoimmune diseases, general immune dysfunction, and/or treatment of autoimmune diseases may be important in the pathogenesis of MGUS/multiple myeloma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(2); 332–42. ©2014 AACR.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Body Size and Risk of Head and Neck Cancers in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Background: The association between body size and head and neck cancers (HNCA) is unclear, partly because of the biases in case–control studies. Methods: In the prospective NIH–AARP cohort study, 218,854 participants (132,288 men and 86,566 women), aged 50 to 71 years, were cancer free at baseline (1995 and 1996), and had valid anthropometric data. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations between body size and HNCA, adjusted for current and past smoking habits, alcohol intake, education, race, and fruit and vegetable consumption, and reported as HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Until December 31, 2006, 779 incident HNCAs occurred: 342 in the oral cavity, 120 in the oro- and hypopharynx, 265 in the larynx, 12 in the nasopharynx, and 40 at overlapping sites. There was an inverse association between HNCA and body mass index, which was almost exclusively among current smokers (HR = 0.76 per each 5 U increase; 95% CI, 0.63–0.93), and diminished as initial years of follow-up were excluded. We observed a direct association with waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.16 per 0.1 U increase; 95% CI, 1.03–1.31), particularly for cancers of the oral cavity (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.17–1.67). Height was also directly associated with total HNCAs (P = 0.02), and oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers (P < 0.01). Conclusions: The risk of HNCAs was associated inversely with leanness among current smokers, and directly with abdominal obesity and height. Impact: Our study provides evidence that the association between leanness and risk of HNCAs may be due to effect modification by smoking. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(11); 2422–9. ©2014 AACR.

European Recommendations for Primary Prevention of Congenital Anomalies: A Joined Effort of EUROCAT and EUROPLAN Projects to Facilitate Inclusion of This Topic in the National Rare Disease Plans

Congenital anomalies (CA) are the paradigm example of rare diseases liable to primary prevention actions due to the multifactorial etiology of many of them, involving a number of environmental factors together with genetic predispositions. Yet despite the preventive potential, lack of attention to an integrated preventive strategy has led to the prevalence of CA remaining relatively stable in recent decades. The 2 European projects, EUROCAT and EUROPLAN, have joined efforts to provide the first science-based and comprehensive set of recommendations for the primary prevention of CA in the European Union. The resulting EUROCAT-EUROPLAN 'Recommendations on Policies to Be Considered for the Primary Prevention of Congenital Anomalies in National Plans and Strategies on Rare Diseases' were issued in 2012 and endorsed by EUCERD (European Union Committee of Experts on Rare Diseases) in 2013. The recommendations exploit interdisciplinary expertise encompassing drugs, diet, lifestyles, maternal health status, and the environment. The recommendations include evidence-based actions aimed at reducing risk factors and at increasing protective factors and behaviors at both individual and population level. Moreover, consideration is given to topics specifically related to CA (e.g. folate status, teratogens) as well as of broad public health impact (e.g. obesity, smoking) which call for specific attention to their relevance in the pre- and periconceptional period. The recommendations, reported entirely in this paper, are a comprehensive tool to implement primary prevention into national policies on rare diseases in Europe.

Risk, Regulation and the Reintegration of Sexual Offenders

Media reporting of and public concern about sexual offending, particularly relating to children, affects and reflects political, policy and organisational responses to those convicted of such crimes. The development of regulatory policies on sexual offending has taken place within a highly emotive and overtly politicized public and policy discourse. This chapter charts the various ways in which the risks imagined or posed by sexual offenders have been conceptualised within public discourses and regulated and managed under the legislative and organisational ‘risk paradigm.’ Ultimately, it argues that risk-based responses to sexual offending are at best uncertain in their effects and at worst counterproductive, in that they often reduce the potential for successful reintegration. In seeking to look ‘beyond risk’, the chapter also explores the usefulness of restorative and related practices in supporting sex offender reintegration aimed at the primary and secondary levels of harm prevention.

Psychosocial aspects in cardiac rehabilitation: From theory to practice. A position paper from the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation of the European Society of Cardiology

A large body of empirical research shows that psychosocial risk factors (PSRFs) such as low socio-economic status, social isolation, stress, type-D personality, depression and anxiety increase the risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and also contribute to poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and prognosis in patients with established CHD. PSRFs may also act as barriers to lifestyle changes and treatment adherence and may moderate the effects of cardiac rehabilitation (CR). Furthermore, there appears to be a bidirectional interaction between PSRFs and the cardiovascular system. Stress, anxiety and depression affect the cardiovascular system through immune, neuroendocrine and behavioural pathways. In turn, CHD and its associated treatments may lead to distress in patients, including anxiety and depression. In clinical practice, PSRFs can be assessed with single-item screening questions, standardised questionnaires, or structured clinical interviews. Psychotherapy and medication can be considered to alleviate any PSRF-related symptoms and to enhance HRQoL, but the evidence for a definite beneficial effect on cardiac endpoints is inconclusive. A multimodal behavioural intervention, integrating counselling for PSRFs and coping with illness should be included within comprehensive CR. Patients with clinically significant symptoms of distress should be referred for psychological counselling or psychologically focused interventions and/or psychopharmacological treatment. To conclude, the success of CR may critically depend on the interdependence of the body and mind and this interaction needs to be reflected through the assessment and management of PSRFs in line with robust scientific evidence, by trained staff, integrated within the core CR team.

Aspirin and folic acid for the prevention of recurrent colorectal adenomas

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although observational studies have found regular aspirin use to be associated with a reduced risk of colorectal neoplasia, results from randomized trials using aspirin have been inconsistent. Dietary folate intake also has been found to be associated with a reduced risk of colorectal neoplasms in observational studies.

METHODS: A multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of aspirin (300 mg/day) and folate supplements (0.5 mg/day) to prevent colorectal adenoma recurrence was performed using a 2 x 2 factorial design. All patients had an adenoma (>/=0.5 cm) removed in the 6 months before recruitment and were followed-up at 4-month intervals with a second colonoscopy after approximately 3 years. The primary outcome measure was a colorectal adenoma diagnosed after baseline.

RESULTS: A total of 945 patients were recruited into the study, of whom 853 (90.3%) underwent a second colonoscopy. In total, 99 (22.8%) of 434 patients receiving aspirin had a recurrent adenoma compared with 121 (28.9%) of 419 patients receiving placebo (relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.99). A total of 104 patients developed an advanced colorectal adenoma; 41 (9.4%) of these were in the aspirin group and 63 (15.0%) were in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.91). Folate supplementation was found to have no effect on adenoma recurrence (relative risk, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85-1.34).

CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin (300 mg/day) but not folate (0.5 mg/day) use was found to reduce the risk of colorectal adenoma recurrence, with evidence that aspirin could have a significant role in preventing the development of advanced lesions.

Evaluating early administration of the hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitor simvastatin in the prevention and treatment of delirium in critically ill ventilated patients (MoDUS trial): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: The incidence of delirium in ventilated patients is estimated at up to 82%, and it is associated with longer intensive care and hospital stays, and long-term cognitive impairment and mortality. The pathophysiology of delirium has been linked with inflammation and neuronal apoptosis. Simvastatin has pleiotropic properties; it penetrates the brain and, as well as reducing cholesterol, reduces inflammation when used at clinically relevant doses over the short term. This is a single centre randomised, controlled trial which aims to test the hypothesis that treatment with simvastatin will modify delirium incidence and outcomes. 

Methods/Design: The ongoing study will include 142 adults admitted to the Watford General Hospital Intensive Care Unit who require mechanical ventilation in the first 72 hours of admission. The primary outcome is the number of delirium- and coma-free days in the first 14 days. Secondary outcomes include incidence of delirium, delirium- and coma-free days in the first 28 days, days in delirium and in coma at 14 and 28 days, number of ventilator-free days at 28 days, length of critical care and hospital stay, mortality, cognitive decline and healthcare resource use. Informed consent will be taken from patient's consultee before randomisation to receive either simvastatin (80 mg) or placebo once daily. Daily data will be recorded until day 28 after randomisation or until discharge from the ICU if sooner. Surviving patients will be followed up on at six months from discharge. Plasma and urine samples will be taken to investigate the biological effect of simvastatin on systemic markers of inflammation, as related to the number of delirium- and coma-free days, and the potential of cholinesterase activity and beta-amyloid as predictors of the risk of delirium and long-term cognitive impairment. 

Discussion: This trial will test the efficacy of simvastatin on reducing delirium in the critically ill. If patients receiving the statin show a reduced number of days in delirium compared with the placebo group, the inflammatory theory implicated in the pathogenesis of delirium will be strengthened. 

Colorectal cancer risk following adenoma removal: a large prospective population-based cohort study

Background: Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated significant reductions in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality associated with polypectomy. However, little is known about whether polypectomy is effective at reducing CRC risk in routine clinical practice. The aim of this investigation was to quantify CRC risk following polypectomy in a large prospective population-based cohort study.

Methods: Patients with incident colorectal polyps between 2000 and 2005 in Northern Ireland (NI) were identified via electronic pathology reports received to the NI Cancer Registry (NICR). Patients were matched to the NICR to detect CRC and deaths up to 31st December 2010. CRC standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated and Cox proportional hazards modelling applied to determine CRC risk.

Results: During 44,724 person-years of follow-up, 193 CRC cases were diagnosed amongst 6,972 adenoma patients, representing an annual progression rate of 0.43%. CRC risk was significantly elevated in patients who had an adenoma removed (SIR 2.85; 95% CI: 2.61 to 3.25) compared with the general population. Male sex, older age, rectal site and villous architecture were associated with an increased CRC risk in adenoma patients. Further analysis suggested that not having a full colonoscopy performed at, or following, incident polypectomy contributed to the excess CRC risk.

Conclusions: CRC risk was elevated in individuals following polypectomy for adenoma, outside of screening programmes.

Impact: This finding emphasises the need for full colonoscopy and adenoma clearance, and appropriate surveillance, after endoscopic diagnosis of adenoma.

Increasing Fruit and Vegetable Intake Has No Dose-Response Effect on Conventional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight Adults at High Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Improving diet and lifestyle is important for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Observational evidence suggests that increasing fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption may lower CVD risk, largely through modulation of established risk factors, but intervention data are required to fully elucidate the mechanisms by which FVs exert benefits on vascular health.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the dose-response effect of FV intake on cardiovascular risk factors in adults at high CVD risk.

METHODS: This was a randomized controlled parallel group study involving overweight adults (BMI: >27 and ≤35 kg/m(2)) with a habitually low FV intake (≤160 g/d) and a high total risk of developing CVD (estimated ≥20% over 10 y). After a 4-wk run-in period where FV intake was limited to <2 portions/d (<160 g/d), 92 eligible participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: to consume either 2, 4, or 7 portions (equivalent to 160 g, 320 g, or 560 g, respectively) of FVs daily for 12 consecutive weeks. Fasting venous blood samples were collected at baseline (week 4) and post-intervention (week 16) for analysis of lipid fractions and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentrations. Compliance with the FV intervention was determined with use of self-reported FV intake and biomarkers of micronutrient status. Ambulatory blood pressure and body composition were also measured pre- and post-intervention.

RESULTS: A total of 89 participants completed the study and body composition remained stable throughout the intervention period. Despite good compliance with the intervention, no significant difference was found between the FV groups for change in measures of ambulatory blood pressure, plasma lipids, or hsCRP concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a dose-response effect of FV intake on conventional CVD risk factors measured in overweight adults at high CVD risk. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00874341.

Primary care organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide.

Aim: To determine the long-term impact of organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD.

Design and setting: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from CENTRAL, MEDLINE®, Embase, and CINAHL published January 2007 to January 2013.

Method: Searches were conducted for randomised controlled trials of patients with established IHD, with long-term follow-up, of cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change in primary care or community settings. A random-effects model was used and risk ratios were calculated.

Results: Five studies were included with 4005 participants. Meta-analysis of four studies with mortality data at 4.7–6 years showed that organisational interventions were associated with approximately 20% reduced mortality, with a risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66 to 0.93), and a RR for cardiac-related mortality of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.94). Two studies reported mortality data at 10 years. Analysis of these data showed no significant differences between groups. There were insufficient data to conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of interventions on hospital admissions. Additional analyses showed no significant association between organisational interventions and risk factor management or appropriate prescribing at 4.7–6 years.

Conclusion: Cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change are associated with a reduced risk of death for at least 4–6 years. There is insufficient evidence to conclude whether this beneficial effect is maintained indefinitely.

Pleiotropic analysis of cancer risk loci on esophageal adenocarcinoma risk

Background: Several cancer-associated loci identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been associated with risks of multiple cancer sites, suggesting pleiotropic effects. We investigated whether GWAS-identified risk variants for other common cancers are associated with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) or its precursor, Barrett's esophagus. 

Methods: We examined the associations between risks of EA and Barrett's esophagus and 387 SNPs that have been associated with risks of other cancers, by using genotype imputation data on 2,163 control participants and 3,885 (1,501 EA and 2,384 Barrett's esophagus) case patients from the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Genetic Susceptibility Study, and investigated effect modification by smoking history, body mass index (BMI), and reflux/heartburn. 

Results: After correcting for multiple testing, none of the tested 387 SNPs were statistically significantly associated with risk of EA or Barrett's esophagus. No evidence of effect modification by smoking, BMI, or reflux/heartburn was observed. 

Conclusions: Genetic risk variants for common cancers identified from GWAS appear not to be associated with risks of EA or Barrett's esophagus. 

Impact: To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of pleiotropic genetic associations with risks of EA and Barrett's esophagus.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.