Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

The Casual Buttress:Certainty and Contingency in the Study of the Vernacular

Impromptu accretions such as the buttresses in Robin Walkers photograph are moments that are familiar in the architecture of the everyday. Indeed the buttress is a very common occurrence with these cottages in particular, their mud walls being poor at resisting concentrated lateral loading. While not always required the buttress emerges when requirements to create spaces to support inhabitation are at odds with the external form and construction of the buildings. These points of disjunction are resolved in an additive fashion externally. The location varies from structure to structure, occasionally the buttress is be used as a point of connection for further structures, becoming subsumed in outbuildings or walls. This preponderance to variety means that it is omitted from the reductive drawings of type that classify these buildings and yet it occurs in enough for it to have a fundamental and transformative relationship to the generality of cottages.
What is of interest is not so much what these structures hold in common, but rather what differentiates them. It is their capacity for variety within a defined range which allows them at once to speak at once of broader social structures and of a specific place and person.
Using the above observation this paper treats of the failure of architectural typological studies of the vernacular to derive anything other than formal exemplars, and posits an alternative approach based on a focus on the technical construction of such buildings.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

The electroreduction of benzoic acid: voltammetric observation of adsorbed hydrogen at a platinum microelectrode in room temperature ionic liquids

The electrochemical reduction of benzoic acid in the presence and absence of hydrogen (H-2) has been investigated using a 10 mu m diameter platinum microelectrode in four different room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs), namely [C(4)mim][NTf2], [C(4)mpyrr][NTf2], [C(4)mim][OTf] and [C(4)mim][BF4], versus Ag/Ag+. In all cases, reductive voltammetry is observed, and is suggested to occur via a CE mechanism in which dissociation of benzoic acid is followed by electron transfer to H+ ultimately forming adsorbed hydrogen. Furthermore, the adsorbed H atoms, formed from the reduction of benzoic acid, could be used to achieve the rapid hydrogenolysis of the organic compound (bis(benzyloxycarbonyl)-L-lysine) on the timescale of the voltammetric technique under moderate conditions (25 degrees C).

'Latinising' Milton: Paradise Lost, Latinitas and the Long Eighteenth Century

This chapter traces the trajectory of Latin translations of Milton’s vernacular verse most capably encapsulated by Latin verse paraphrases of Paradise Lost by a certain J.C. (1686), William Hog (1690), Thomas Power (1691) and by such eighteenth-century renderings as that of William Dobson (1753). Situating its analysis in relation to early modern pedagogical practices, including the double translation system, and informed by current translational theory, the analysis considers the multifunctional aims and consequences of Latinising Milton: the elaboration and elucidation of a vernacular original via Latin exegesis and paraphrase; recourse to Latin as a means of facilitating a wider European readership. Integral to the discussion is an alertness to the contemporary and later reception of Milton’s work, and an assessment of ways in which Latinitas enabled the invocation of classical intertexts which in themselves offer a nuanced reading of Miltonic verse.

Dust-ion-acoustic supersolitons in dusty plasmas with nonthermal electrons

Supersolitons are a recent addition to the literature on large-amplitude solitary waves in multispecies plasmas. They are distinguished from the usual solitons by their associated electric field profiles which are inherently distinct from traditional bipolar structures. In this paper, dust-ion-acoustic modes in a dusty plasma with stationary negative dust, cold fluid protons, and nonthermal electrons are investigated through a Sagdeev pseudopotential approach to see where supersolitons fit between ranges of ordinary solitons and double layers, as supersolitons always have finite amplitudes. They therefore cannot be described by reductive perturbation treatments, which rely on a weak amplitude assumption. A systematic methodology and discussion is given to distinguish the existence domains in solitary wave speed and amplitude for the different solitons, supersolitons and double layers, in terms of compositional parameters for the plasma model under consideration. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Electron-induced hydrogen loss in uracil in a water cluster environment

Low-energy electron-impact hydrogen loss due to dissociative electron attachment (DEA) to the uracil and thymine molecules in a water cluster environment is investigated theoretically. Only the A'-resonance contribution, describing the near-threshold behavior of DEA, is incorporated. Calculations are based on the nonlocal complex potential theory and the multiple scattering theory, and are performed for a model target with basic properties of uracil and thymine, surrounded by five water molecules. The DEA cross section is strongly enhanced when the attaching molecule is embedded in a water cluster. This growth is due to two effects: the increase of the resonance lifetime and the negative shift in the resonance position due to interaction of the intermediate negative ion with the surrounding water molecules. A similar effect was earlier found in DEA to chlorofluorocarbons. 

Quantum yield measurements for the photocatalytic oxidation of Acid Orange 7 (AO7) and reduction of 2,6-dichloroindophenol (DCIP) on transparent TiO2 films of various thickness

This work comprises the photoactivity assessment of transparent sol–gel TiO2 coatings of various thickness using two test systems. The initial rates of both photocatalytic reactions, namely the oxidative bleaching of Acid Orange 7 (AO7) and the reductive bleaching of 2,6-dichlorindophenol (DCIP) increase linearly with increasing titania film thickness as well as with increasing absorbed light flux. The latter work revealed quantum yields (QY) of 0.19% and 92% for the AO7 and DCIP test system, respectively. The low QY for the AO7 oxidation is due to the combination of a slow irreversible reduction of oxygen and also for the oxidation of AO7, thus favouring the high efficiency for electron–hole recombination that is typical for aqueous organic pollutants. In contrast, the very high QY for the photocatalysed reduction of DCIP is due to the presence of a vast excess of glycerol which traps the photogenerated holes efficiently and so allow time for the slower reduction of dye to take place. Furthermore, the oxidation of glycerol results in the generation of highly reducing R-hydroxyalkyl radicals that are able to also reduce DCIP. As a consequence of this ‘current doubling’ effect, the observed QY (92%) is much higher than the apparent theoretical value of 50%.

Microelectrode Voltammetry of Dioxygen Reduction in a Phosphonium Cation-Based Room-Temperature Ionic Liquid: Quantitative Studies

Microelectrode voltammetry is used to study the electrochemical reduction of dioxygen, O-2, in the room-temperature ionic liquid trihexyl(tetradecyl)phosphonium trifluorotris(pentafluoroethyl)phosphate [P6,6,6,14][FAP]. The nature of the unusual voltammetric waves is quantitatively modeled via digital simulation with the aim of clarifying apparent inconsistencies in the literature. The reduction is shown to proceed via a two-electron reaction and involve the likely capture of a proton from the solvent system. The oxidative voltammetric signals seen at fast scan rates are interpreted as resulting from the reoxidation of HO2 center dot. In the presence of large amounts of dissolved carbon dioxide the reductive currents decrease by a factor of ca. two, consistent with the trapping of the superoxide radical, O-2(center dot), intermediate in the two-electron reduction process.

Dust-acoustic shocks in strongly coupled dusty plasmas

Electrostatic dust-acoustic shock waves are investigated in a viscous, complex plasma consisting of dust particles, electrons, and ions. The system is modelled using the generalized hydrodynamic equations, with strong coupling between the dust particles being accounted for by employing the effective electrostatic temperature approach. Using a reductive perturbation method, it is demonstrated that this model predicts the existence of weakly nonlinear dust-acoustic shock waves, arising as solutions to Burgers's equation, in which the nonlinear forces are balanced by dissipative forces, in this case, associated with viscosity. The evolution and stability of dust-acoustic shocks is investigated via a series of numerical simulations, which confirms our analytical predictions on the shock characteristics.

Pressure anisotropy effects on nonlinear electrostatic excitations in magnetized electron-positron-ion plasmas

The propagation of linear and nonlinear electrostatic waves is investigated in a magnetized anisotropic electron-positron-ion (e-p-i) plasma with superthermal electrons and positrons. A two-dimensional plasma geometry is assumed. The ions are assumed to be warm and anisotropic due to an external magnetic field. The anisotropic ion pressure is defined using the double adiabatic Chew-Golberger-Low (CGL) theory. In the linear regime, two normal modes are predicted, whose characteristics are investigated parametrically, focusing on the effect of superthermality of electrons and positrons, ion pressure anisotropy, positron concentration and magnetic field strength. A Zakharov-Kuznetsov (ZK) type equation is derived for the electrostatic potential (disturbance) via a reductive perturbation method. The parametric role of superthermality, positron content, ion pressure anisotropy and magnetic field strength on the characteristics of solitary wave structures is investigated. Following Allen and Rowlands [J. Plasma Phys. 53, 63 (1995)], we have shown that the pulse soliton solution of the ZK equation is unstable to oblique perturbations, and have analytically traced the dependence of the instability growth rate on superthermality and ion pressure anisotropy.

Electrostatic Solitary Waves in Relativistic Degenerate Electron-Positron-Ion Plasma

The linear and nonlinear properties of ion acoustic excitations propagating in warm dense electron-positron-ion plasma are investigated. Electrons and positrons are assumed relativistic and degenerate, following the Fermi-Dirac statistics, whereas the warm ions are described by a set of classical fluid equations. A linear dispersion relation is derived in the linear approximation. Adopting a reductive perturbation method, the Korteweg-de Vries equation is derived, which admits a localized wave solution in the form of a small-amplitude weakly super-acoustic pulse-shaped soliton. The analysis is extended to account for arbitrary amplitude solitary waves, by deriving a pseudoenergy-balance like equation, involving a Sagdeev-type pseudopotential. It is shown that the two approaches agree exactly in the small-amplitude weakly super-acoustic limit. The range of allowed values of the pulse soliton speed (Mach number), wherein solitary waves may exist, is determined. The effects of the key plasma configuration parameters, namely, the electron relativistic degeneracy parameter, the ion (thermal)-to-the electron (Fermi) temperature ratio, and the positron-to-electron density ratio, on the soliton characteristics and existence domain, are studied in detail. Our results aim at elucidating the characteristics of ion acoustic excitations in relativistic degenerate plasmas, e.g., in dense astrophysical objects, where degenerate electrons and positrons may occur.

Approaches to diene based homopumiliotoxin alkaloids.

Palladium catalysed reductive cyclisation of a 1,1-dibromoalkene to an acetylene gives the core unit of the quinolizidine based diene homopuniliotoxin alkaloids with complete control of stereochemistry of the exocyclic double bond. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

PALLADIUM CATALYZED TANDEM CYCLIZATION-ANION CAPTURE PROCESSES .1. BACKGROUND AND HYDRIDE ION CAPTURE BY ALKYL-PALLADIUM AND PI-ALLYL-PALLADIUM SPECIES

A new, wide ranging, synthetically powerful, catalytic tandem cyclisation-anion capture process is proposed which depends on the rate of cyclisation of an organopalladium specifies (RPdX) onto a proximate alkene or diene being significantly faster than anion exchange and reductive elimination in the sequence RPdX --> RPdY --> RY + Pd(0). The catalytic cyclisation - anion capture sequence is illustrated for hydride capture by a wide variety of substrates giving rise to fused- and spiro-, carbo- and hetero-cyclic systems, regio- and stereo-specifically.

Sporting Justice: An Arbitrator's Perspective

Drawing on my experience of a number of sports dispute resolution tribunals in the UK and Ireland (such as Sports Resolutions UK; Just Sport Ireland; the Football Association of Ireland’s Disciplinary Panel and the Gaelic Athletic Association’s Dispute Resolution Authority) I intend to use this paper to review the legal arguments typically made in sports-related arbitrations. These points of interest can be summarised as a series of three questions: the fairness question; the liability question; the penalty question.

In answer to the fairness question, the aim is to give a brief outline on best practice in establishing a "fair" sports disciplinary tribunal. The answer, I believe, is always twofold in nature: first, and to paraphrase Lord Steyn in R v Secretary of State For The Home Department, Ex Parte Daly [2001] UKHL 26 at [28] "in law, context is everything" – translated into the present matter, this means that in sports disciplinary cases, the more serious the charges against the individual (in terms of reputational damage, economic impact and/or length of sanction); the more tightly wrapped the procedural safeguards surrounding any subsequent disciplinary hearing must be. A fair disciplinary system will be discussed in the context of the principles laid down in Article 8 of the World Anti-Doping Code which, in effect, acts as sport’s Article 6 of the ECHR on a right to a fair trial.

Following on from the above, in the 60 or so sports arbitrations that I have heard, there are two further points of interest. First, the claim before the arbitral panel will often be framed in an argument that, for various reasons of substantive and procedural irregularity, the sanction imposed on the appellant should be quashed ("the liability"). Second, and in alternative, that the sanction imposed was wholly disproportionate ("the penalty").

The liability issue usually breaks down into two further questions. First, what is the nature of the legal duty upon a sports body in exercising its disciplinary remit? Second, to what extent does a de novo hearing on appeal cure any apparent defects in a hearing of first instance? The first issue often results in an arbitral panel debating the contra preferentum approach to the interpretation of a contested rule i.e., the sports body’s rules in question are so ambiguous that they should be interpreted in a manner to the detriment of the rule maker and in favour of the appellant. On the second matter, it now appears to be a general principle of sports law, administrative law and even human rights law that even if a violation of the principles of natural justice takes place at the first instance stage of a disciplinary process, they may be cured on de novo appeal. Authority for this approach can be found at the Court of Arbitration for Sport and in particular in CAS 2009/A/1920 FK Pobeda, Aleksandar Zabrcanec, Nikolce Zdraveski v UEFA at para 87.

The question on proportionality asks what, aside from precedent found within the decisions of the sports body in question, are the general legal principles against which a sanction by a sports disciplinary body can be benchmarked in order to ascertain whether it is disproportionate in length or even irrational in nature?

On the matter of (dis)proportionality of sanction, the debate is usually guided by the authority in Bradley v the Jockey Club [2004] EWHC 2164 (QB) and affirmed at [2005] EWCA Civ 1056. The Bradley principles on proportionality of sports-specific sanctions, recently cited with approval at the Court of Arbitration for Sport, will be examined in this presentation.

Finally, an interesting application of many of the above principles (and others such as the appropriate standard of proof in sports disciplinary procedures) can be made to recent match-fixing or corruption related hearings held by the British Horse Racing Authority, the integrity units of snooker and tennis, and at the Court of Arbitration for Sport.