Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

Multiplication of microbes below 0.690 water activity: implications for terrestrial and extraterrestrial life

Since a key requirement of known life forms is available water (water activity; aw), recent searches for signatures of past life in terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments have targeted places known to have contained significant quantities of biologically available water. However, early life on Earth inhabited high-salt environments, suggesting an ability to withstand low water-activity. The lower limit of water activity that enables cell division appears to be ∼ 0.605 which, until now, was only known to be exhibited by a single eukaryote, the sugar-tolerant, fungal xerophile Xeromyces bisporus. The first forms of life on Earth were, though, prokaryotic. Recent evidence now indicates that some halophilic Archaea and Bacteria have water-activity limits more or less equal to those of X. bisporus. We discuss water activity in relation to the limits of Earth's present-day biosphere; the possibility of microbial multiplication by utilizing water from thin, aqueous films or non-liquid sources; whether prokaryotes were the first organisms able to multiply close to the 0.605-aw limit; and whether extraterrestrial aqueous milieux of ≥ 0.605 aw can resemble fertile microbial habitats found on Earth.

'Conditional candour' and 'knowing me': an interpretive description study on patient preferences for physician behaviours during end-of-life communication

OBJECTIVE: To understand patients' preferences for physician behaviours during end-of-life communication.

METHODS: We used interpretive description methods to analyse data from semistructured, one-on-one interviews with patients admitted to general medical wards at three Canadian tertiary care hospitals. Study recruitment took place from October 2012 to August 2013. We used a purposive, maximum variation sampling approach to recruit hospitalised patients aged ≥55 years with a high risk of mortality within 6-12 months, and with different combinations of the following demographic variables: race (Caucasian vs non-Caucasian), gender and diagnosis (cancer vs non-cancer).

RESULTS: A total of 16 participants were recruited, most of whom (69%) were women and 70% had a non-cancer diagnosis. Two major concepts regarding helpful physician behaviour during end-of-life conversations emerged: (1) 'knowing me', which reflects the importance of acknowledging the influence of family roles and life history on values and priorities expressed during end-of-life communication, and (2) 'conditional candour', which describes a process of information exchange that includes an assessment of patients' readiness, being invited to the conversation, and sensitive delivery of information.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that patients prefer a nuanced approach to truth telling when having end-of-life discussions with their physician. This may have important implications for clinical practice and end-of-life communication training initiatives.

Scyphozoan jellyfish provide short-term reproductive habitat for hyperiid amphipods in a temperate near-shore environment

Hyperiid amphipods (Order Amphipoda, Suborder Hyperiidea) are known to infest gelatinous zooplankton. However, the temporal backdrop to these associations is less clear, given that data are often gathered during discrete sampling events rather than over time. In general, hyperiids are considered to be pelagic: however, for individuals associated with metagenic jellyfishes in temperate shallow shelf seas, this may not always be the case, as the majority of their gelatinous hosts are present in the water column from spring to the onset of autumn. Here, we explored the temporal patterns of colonisation and overall duration of the association between Hyperia galba and 3 scyphozoan jellyfish species (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea capillata and C. lamarckii) in a temperate coastal system (Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland) during 2010 and 2012. Concomitantly, we used carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios to examine whether hyperiid infestation represented a permanent association with their host or was part of a more complex life history. We found that jellyfish were colonised by H. galba ca. 2 mo after they are first observed in the lough and that H. galba reached 100% prevalence in the different jellyfish species shortly before the medusae of each species disappeared from the water column. It is possible that some jellyfish overwintered in deeper water, prolonging the association between H. galba and their hosts. However, all the medusae sampled during the spring and early summer (whether they were newly emerged or had overwintered from the previous season) were not infected with hyperiids, suggesting that such behaviour was uncommon or that individuals had become dissociated from their host during the winter. Further evidence of temporary association came from stable isotope data, where δ13C and δ15N isotope ratios were indicative of feeding outside of their host prior to jellyfish colonisation. In combination, these findings suggest alternating habitat associations for H. galba, with the amphipods spending the majority of the year outside of the 3 scyphozoan species considered here.

Are the differences in adulthood ill-health across the North-South divide and between Scotland and England also evident in early childhood health indicators?

Regional differences in adult morbidity and mortality within England (i.e., north-south divide or gradient) and between England and Scotland (i.e., Scottish effect) are only partly explained by adult levels of socioeconomic status or risk factors. This suggests variation in early life, and is supported by the fetal origins and life-course literature which posits that birth outcomes and subsequent, cumulative exposures influence adult health. However, no studies have examined the north-south gradient or Scottish effect in health in the earliest years of life. The aims of the study were: i) to examine health indicators in English and Scottish children at birth and age three to establish whether regional differences exist; and ii) to establish whether observed changes in child health at age three were attributable to birth and/or early life environmental exposures. Respondents included 10,639 biological Caucasian mothers of singleton children recruited to the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) in the year 2000. Outcome variables were: gestational age and birth weight, and height, body mass index (BMI), and externalising behavioural problems at age three. Region/country was categorised as: South (reference), Midlands, North (England), and Scotland. Respondents provided information on child, maternal, household, and socioeconomic characteristics. Results indicated no significant regional variations for gestational age or birth weight. At age three there was a north-south gradient for externalising behaviour and a north-south divide in BMI which attenuated on adjustment. However, a north-south divide in height was not fully explained by adjustment. There was also evidence of a ‘Midlands effect’, with increased likelihood of shorter stature and behaviour problems. Results showed a Scottish effect for height and BMI in the unadjusted models, and height in the adjusted model, but a decreased likelihood of behaviour problems. Findings indicated no regional differences in health at birth, but some regional variation at age three supports the cumulative life-course model.

Climatic signals in the life histories of insects:the distribution and abundance of heather psyllids (Strophingia spp.) in the UK

1. The population density and age structure of two species of heather psyllid Strophingia ericae and Strophingia cinereae, feeding on Calluna vulgaris and Erica cinerea, respectively, were sampled using standardized methods at locations throughout Britain. Locations were chosen to represent the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of the host plants.

2. The paper explains how spatial variation in thermal environment, insect life-history characteristics and physiology, and plant distribution, interact to provide the mechanisms that determine the range and abundance of Strophingia spp.

3. Strophingia ericae and S. cinereae, despite the similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of their host plants within Britain, display strongly contrasting geographical ranges and corresponding life-history strategies. Strophingia ericae is found on its host plant throughout Britain but S. cinereae is restricted to low elevation sites south of the Mersey-Humber line and occupies only part of the latitudinal and altitudinal range of its host plant. There is no evidence to suggest that S. ericae has reached its potential altitudinal or latitudinal limit in the UK, even though its host plant appears to reach its altitudinal limit.

4. There was little difference in the ability of the two Strophingia spp. to survive shortterm exposure to temperatures as low as - 15 degrees C and low winter temperatures probably do not limit distribution in S. cinereae.

5. Population density of S. ericae was not related to altitude but showed a weak correlation with latitude. The spread of larval instars present at a site, measured as an index of instar homogeneity, was significantly correlated with a range of temperature related variables, of which May mean temperature and length of growing season above 3 degrees C (calculated using the Lennon and Turner climatic model) were the most significant. Factor analysis did not improve the level of correlation significantly above those obtained for single climatic variables. The data confirmed that S. ericae has a I year life cycle at the lowest elevations and a 2 year life cycle at the higher elevations. However, there was no evidence, as previously suggested, for an abrupt change from a one to a 2 year life cycle in S. ericae with increasing altitudes or latitudes.

6. By contrast with S. ericae, S. cinereae had an obligatory 1 year life cycle, its population decreased with altitude and the index of instar homogeneity showed little correlation with single temperature variables. Moreover, it occupied only part of the range of its host plant and its spatial distribution in the UK could be predicted with 96% accuracy using selected variables in discriminant analysis.

7. The life histories of the congeneric heather psyllids reflect adaptations that allow them to exploit host plants with different distributions in climatic and thereby geographical space. Strophingia ericae has the flexible life history that enables it to exploit C. vulgaris throughout its European boreal temperate range. Strophingia cinereae has a less flexible life history and is adapted for living on an oceanic temperate host. While the geographic ranges of the two Strophingia spp. overlap within the UK, the psyllids appear to respond differently to variation in their thermal environment.

Transitions in Contentious Behaviour in Infancy and Later Aggressive Conduct Problems

Background. Individual trajectories toward aggression originate in early infancy, before there is intent to harm. We focused on infants who were contentious, i.e., prone to engage in anger and use of physical force with other people, and examined change in levels of contentiousness between 6 and 12 months of age with reference to later aggressive conduct problems.
Sample. The CCDS is a nationally representative sample of 321 firstborn children whose families were recruited from antenatal clinics in two National Health Service Trusts.
Method. Mothers, fathers, and a third family member or friend who knew infants well completed the Cardiff Infant Contentiousness Scale (CICS) at 6 months, which was stable form 6 to 12 months, and validated by direct observation of infants’ use of force against peers. Primary caregivers again completed the CICS at 12 months, and up to three informants completed the Child Behaviour Check List at mean ages of 36 and 84 months. We used Latent Transition Analysis to identify different groups of infants in respect to their patterns of contentiousness from 6 to 12 months.
Results
Three ordered classes of contentiousness from low to high were found at 6 and 12 months. Infants exposed to greater family adversity were more likely to move into the high-contentious class from 6 to 12 months. Higher contentiousness in infancy predicted more aggressive conduct problems at 33 months and thereafter.
Conclusions
Infants exposed to family adversity are already at disadvantage by 6 months and likely to escalate in their anger and aggressiveness over time.