Validation of night blindness reports among children and women in a vitamin A deficient population in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: This study validates different definitions of reported night blindness (XN) in a vitamin A deficient African population with no local term for XN. DESIGN: Case-control study with follow-up after treatment. SETTING: Eight primary schools and health centres in rural Tanzania. SUBJECTS: A total of 1214 participants were screened for reported XN and other eye signs of xerophthalmia: 461 children aged 24-71 months, 562 primary school-age children and 191 pregnant or breast-feeding women. All 152 cases of reported XN were selected for the validation study and group matched with 321 controls who did not complain of XN. XN reports were validated against serum retinol concentrations and pupillary dark adaptation measurements in cases and controls. INTERVENTION: All children and women who reported XN or had other signs of active xerophthalmia were treated with vitamin A and followed up 3-4 weeks later. Half of the untreated control group who had their serum retinol examined in the baseline examination were also followed up. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of reported XN was 12.5%. At baseline, mean pupillary threshold (-1.52 vs -1.55 log cd/m(2), P=0.501) and median serum retinol concentrations (0.95 vs 0.93 micromol/l, P=0.734) were not significantly different in cases and controls either overall or in each population group. More restricted case definitions reduced the prevalence of reported XN to 5.5% (P<0.001), but there was still no significant difference between cases and controls although the results were in the expected direction. After treatment, the median serum retinol concentration improved significantly only in the most deficient group, the young children. Dark adaptation improved in all the subgroups but the difference was only significant for young children and primary school-age children when the restricted case definitions were used. CONCLUSIONS: XN reports are a poor indicator of vitamin A deficiency in this population. SPONSORSHIP: Task Force Sight and Life, Basel, Switzerland.

The direction of media influence: Real-estate news and the stock market

This paper uses a novel identification strategy to test the influence of news media on the stock market. Because the stock market does not impact the media coverage of the housing market, a relationship between real-estate news and shares of companies engaged in the housing market is attributable media influence. I find that the content of reporting exhibits a significant relationship with stock returns, and the amount of news with the number of trades. These relationships exist even after controlling for known risk factors, housing market performance and intra-week correlation. This finding is consistent with the function of the media as a source of information and sentiment in financial markets.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.