Extreme events and the morphodynamics of gravel-dominated coastal barriers: Strengthening uncertain ground

The long-term morphodynamic ordering of gravel-dominated coastal systems (GDCS), many of which serve as coastal defences in northwest Europe, is dominated by extreme events that generate barrier crest overflow. An understanding of this morphodynamic ordering is fraught with several unresolved difficulties. These are related to the twin problems of the inadequacy of pertinent morphodynamic parameterisation and of obtaining data from modern shores enabling such parameterisation. Major uncertainties concern the timing of over-crest flow in terms of return period of extreme elevation; the intensity and structure of the overflow field; antecedent beachface characteristics in response to storms; the rate of relative sea-level change; tidal stage control; and barrier resistance to forcing, itself determined by a number of unknowns including barrier form and size, sediment size and mosaics, and barrier resilience. While generalised extreme value modelling may provide a means of characterising overwashing return-period and its variability, exceptional tsunami events are outside the scope of such modelling. The characterisation of GDCS morphodynamics in terms of the forcing extreme events will necessitate integrating some or all of these parameters into a single model.

Biodiversity and ecosystem processes in shallow coastal waters: an experimental approach

The relationship between biodiversity and ecological processes is currently the focus of considerable research effort, made all the more urgent by the rate of biodiversity loss world-wide. Rigorous experimental approaches to this question have been dominated by terrestrial ecologists, but shallow-water marine systems offer great opportunities by virtue of their relative ease of manipulation, fast response times and well-understood effects of macrofauna on sediment processes. In this paper, we describe a series of experiments whereby species richness has been manipulated in a controlled way and the concentrations of nutrients (ammonium, nitrate and phosphate) in the overlying water measured under these different treatments. The results indicate variable effects of species and location on ecosystem processes, and are discussed in the context of emerging mainstream ecological theory on biodiversity and ecosystem relations. Extensions of the application of the experimental approach to species-rich, large-scale benthic systems are discussed and the potential for novel analyses of existing data sets is highlighted. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A parenting intervenion for childhood behavioral problems: a randomised controlled trial in disadvantaged Community-based settings:A randomized controlled trial in disadvantaged community-based settings

Objective: A community-based randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted in urban areas characterized by high levels of disadvantage to test the effectiveness of the Incredible Years BASIC parent training program (IYBP) for children with behavioral problems. Potential moderators of intervention effects on child behavioral outcomes were also explored. Method: Families were included if the child (aged 32-88 months) scored above a clinical cutoff on the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory (ECBI). Participants (n = 149) were randomly allocated on a 2:1 ratio to an intervention group (n = 103) or a waiting-list control group (n = 46). Child behavior, parenting skills, and parent well-being were assessed at baseline and 6 months later using parent-report and independent observations. An intention-to-treat analysis of covariance was used to examine postintervention differences between groups. Results: Statistically significant differences in child disordered behavior favored the intervention group on the ECBI Intensity (effect size = 0.7, p

The impact of antibiotic use on the incidence and resistance pattern of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing bacteria in primary and secondary healthcare settings

Aims: The objective of the present study was to study the relationship between hospital antibiotic use, community antibiotic use and the incidence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria in hospitals, while assessing the impact of a fluoroquinolone restriction policy on ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. METHODS: The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was built to relate antibiotic use to ESB-producing bacteria incidence rates and resistance patterns over a 5 year period (January 2005-December 2009). Results: Analysis showed that the hospital incidence of ESBLs had a positive relationship with the use of fluoroquinolones in the hospital (coefficient = 0.174, P= 0.02), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid in the community (coefficient = 1.03, P= 0.03) and mean co-morbidity scores for hospitalized patients (coefficient = 2.15, P= 0.03) with various time lags. The fluoroquinolone restriction policy was implemented successfully with the mean use of fluoroquinolones (mainly ciprofloxacin) being reduced from 133 to 17 defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 bed days (P <0.001) and from 0.65 to 0.54 DDDs/1000 inhabitants/day (P= 0.0007), in both the hospital and its surrounding community, respectively. This was associated with an improved ciprofloxacin susceptibility in both settings [ciprofloxacin susceptibility being improved from 16% to 28% in the community (P <0.001)] and with a statistically significant reduction in ESBL-producing bacteria incidence rates. Discussion: This study supports the value of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control ESBL, and demonstrates the feasibility of reversing resistance patterns post successful antibiotic restriction. The study also highlights the potential value of the time-series analysis in designing efficient antibiotic stewardship. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

A framework for developing evaluation capacity in health care settings.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for developing an effective evaluation practice within health care settings. Three features are reviewed; capacity building, the application of evaluation to program activities and the utilization of evaluation recommendations. First, the organizational elements required to establish effective evaluation practice are reviewed emphasizing that an organization's capacity for evaluation develops over time and in stages. Second, a comprehensive evaluation framework is presented which demonstrates how evaluation practice can be applied to all aspects of a program's life cycle, thus promoting the scope of evidence-based decision making within an organization. Finally, factors which influence the adoption of evaluation recommendations by decision makers are reviewed accompanied by strategies to promote the utilization of evaluation recommendations in organization decision making.