Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds

Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

Removing the threat of diclofenac to critically endangered Asian vultures

Veterinary use of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) drug diclofenac in South Asia has resulted in the collapse of populations of three vulture species of the genus Gyps to the most severe category of global extinction risk. Vultures are exposed to diclofenac when scavenging on livestock treated with the drug shortly before death. Diclofenac causes kidney damage, increased serum uric acid concentrations, visceral gout, and death. Concern about this issue led the Indian Government to announce its intention to ban the veterinary use of diclofenac by September 2005. Implementation of a ban is still in progress late in 2005, and to facilitate this we sought potential alternative NSAIDs by obtaining information from captive bird collections worldwide. We found that the NSAID meloxicam had been administered to 35 captive Gyps vultures with no apparent ill effects. We then undertook a phased programme of safety testing of meloxicam on the African white-backed vulture Gyps africanus, which we had previously established to be as susceptible to diclofenac poisoning as the endangered Asian Gyps vultures. We estimated the likely maximum level of exposure (MLE) of wild vultures and dosed birds by gavage (oral administration) with increasing quantities of the drug until the likely MLE was exceeded in a sample of 40 G. africanus. Subsequently, six G. africanus were fed tissues from cattle which had been treated with a higher than standard veterinary course of meloxicam prior to death. In the final phase, ten Asian vultures of two of the endangered species (Gyps bengalensis, Gyps indicus) were dosed with meloxicam by gavage; five of them at more than the likely MLE dosage. All meloxicam-treated birds survived all treatments, and none suffered any obvious clinical effects. Serum uric acid concentrations remained within the normal limits throughout, and were significantly lower than those from birds treated with diclofenac in other studies. We conclude that meloxicam is of low toxicity to Gyps vultures and that its use in place of diclofenac would reduce vulture mortality substantially in the Indian subcontinent. Meloxicam is already available for veterinary use in India.

Toxicity of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to Gyps vultures:a new threat from ketoprofen

Three Gyps vulture species are on the brink of extinction in South Asia owing to the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Carcasses of domesticated ungulates are the main food source for Asia's vultures and birds die from kidney failure after consuming diclofenac-contaminated tissues. Here, we report on the safety testing of the NSAID ketoprofen, which was not reported to cause mortality in clinical treatment of scavenging birds and is rapidly eliminated from livestock tissues. Safety testing was undertaken using captive non-releasable Cape griffon vultures (Gyps coprotheres) and wild-caught African white-backed vultures (G. africanus), both previously identified as susceptible to diclofenac and suitable surrogates. Ketoprofen doses ranged from 0.5 to 5 mg kg(-1) vulture body weight, based upon recommended veterinary guidelines and maximum levels of exposure for wild vultures (estimated as 1.54 mg kg(-1)). Doses were administered by oral gavage or through feeding tissues from cattle dosed with ketoprofen at 6 mg kg(-1) cattle body weight, before slaughter. Mortalities occurred at dose levels of 1.5 and 5 mg kg(-1) vulture body weight (within the range recommended for clinical treatment) with the same clinical signs as observed for diclofenac. Surveys of livestock carcasses in India indicate that toxic levels of residual ketoprofen are already present in vulture food supplies. Consequently, we strongly recommend that ketoprofen is not used for veterinary treatment of livestock in Asia and in other regions of the world where vultures access livestock carcasses. The only alternative to diclofenac that should be promoted as safe for vultures is the NSAID meloxicam.

Analysis of nine NSAIDs in ungulate tissues available to critically endangered vultures in India

In 2006, India, Pakistan, and Nepal banned the manufacture of veterinary formulations of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. This action was taken to halt the unprecedented decline of three Gyps vulture species that were being poisoned by diclofenac residues commonly present in carcasses of domestic livestock upon which they scavenged. To assess the affect of this ban and evaluate residue prevelances of other NSAIDs, we present a method to detect diclofenac and eight more NSAIDs by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and apply this to 1488 liver samples from carcasses of livestock taken across seven Indian states. Diclofenac was present in 11.1% of samples taken between April and December 2006, and meloxicam (4%), ibuprofen (0.6%), and ketoprofen (0.5%) were also detected. Although meloxicam is safe for a range of avian scavengers, including Gypsvultures, data regarding the safety of other NSAIDs is currently limited. If wild Gyps on the Indian subcontinent are to survive, diclofenac bans must be completely effective, and NSAIDs that replace it within the veterinary drug market must be of low toxicity toward Gyps and other scavenging birds.

Arsenic residues in predatory birds from an area of Britain with naturally and anthropogenically elevated arsenic levels

Birds of prey forage over large areas and so might be expected to accumulate contaminants which are elevated but heterogeneously distributed in the general environment. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that arsenic levels in raptors from a region with elevated environmental arsenic concentrations were higher than those in birds from an uncontaminated part of Britain. Arsenic concentrations in the liver, kidney and muscle of kestrels, Falco tinnunculus, sparrowhawks, Accipiter nisus, and barn owls, Tyto alba, from south-west (SW) England, an area with naturally and anthropogenically (through mining) elevated environmental arsenic concentrations, were compared with those in birds from SW Scotland, where no such geochemical anomaly exists. Arsenic residues in kestrels from SW England were approximately three times greater than those in birds from SW Scotland for the three tissue types analysed. This was not the case for the other species in which arsenic residues were similar in birds from both regions. It is suggested that differences between species in both diet and arsenic metabolism could explain why kestrels have elevated arsenic tissue burdens in response to general environmental contamination but sparrowhawks and barn owls do not.

Lead and arsenic in bones of birds of prey from Spain

The bones (humerus and/or femur) of 229 birds of prey from 11 species were analyzed for Pb and As to evaluate their exposure to Pb shot. The species with the highest mean Pb levels were red kite (Milvus milvus) and Eurasian griffon (Gyps fulvus), and the species with the lowest levels were Eurasian buzzard (Buteo buteo) and booted eagle (Hieraaetus pennatus). Red kite also had the highest mean As level, an element present in small amounts in Pb shot. Elevated bone Pb concentrations (>10 microg/g dry weight) were found in 10 birds from six species. Clinical signs compatible with lethal Pb poisoning and/or excessive bone Pb concentrations (>20 microg/g) were observed in one Eurasian eagle-owl (Bubo bubo), one red kite, and one Eurasian griffon. Pb poisoning has been diagnosed in eight upland raptor species in Spain to date.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Design and Analysis of an Independent, Layer 2, Open-Access WiFi Monitoring Infrastructure in the Wild

While WiFi monitoring networks have been deployed in previous research, to date none have assessed live network data from an open access, public environment. In this paper we describe the construction of a replicable, independent WLAN monitoring system and address some of the challenges in analysing the resultant traffic. Analysis of traffic from the system demonstrates that basic traffic information from open-access networks varies over time (temporal inconsistency). The results also show that arbitrary selection of Request-Reply intervals can have a significant effect on Probe and Association frame exchange calculations, which can impact on the ability to detect flooding attacks.

Wild-type Measles Virus Infection Upregulates Poliovirus Receptor-Related 4 and Causes Apoptosis in Brain Endothelial Cells by Induction of Tumor Necrosis Factor-Related Apoptosis-Inducing Ligand

Small numbers of brain endothelial cells (BECs) are infected in children with neurologic complications of measles virus (MV) infection. This may provide a mechanism for virus entry into the central nervous system, but the mechanisms are unclear. Both in vitro culture systems and animal models are required to elucidate events in the endothelium. We compared the ability of wild-type (WT), vaccine, and rodent-adapted MV strains to infect, replicate, and induce apoptosis in human and murine brain endothelial cells (HBECs and MBECs, respectively). Mice also were infected intracerebrally. All MV stains productively infected HBECs and induced the MV receptor PVRL4. Efficient WT MV production also occurred in MBECs. Extensive monolayer destruction associated with activated caspase 3 staining was observed in HBECs and MBECs, most markedly with WT MV. Tumor necrosis factor–related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), but not Fas ligand, was induced by MV infection. Treatment of MBECs with supernatants from MV-infected MBEC cultures with an anti-TRAIL antibody blocked caspase 3 expression and monolayer destruction. TRAIL was also expressed in the endothelium and other cell types in infected murine brains. This is the first demonstration that infection of low numbers of BECs with WT MV allows efficient virus production, induction of TRAIL, and subsequent widespread apoptosis.

Trait directed de novo population transcriptome dissects genetic regulation of a balanced polymorphism in phosphorus nutrition/arsenate tolerance in a wild grass Holcus lanatus

The aim of this study was to characterize the transcriptome of a balanced polymorphism, under the regulation of a single gene, for phosphate fertilizer responsiveness/arsenate toler- ance in wild grass Holcus lanatus genotypes screened from the same habitat.

De novo transcriptome sequencing, RNAseq (RNA sequencing) and single nucleotide poly- morphism (SNP) calling were conducted on RNA extracted from H.lanatus. Roche 454 sequencing data were assembled into c. 22 000 isotigs, and paired-end Illumina reads for phosphorus-starved (P) and phosphorus-treated (P+) genovars of tolerant (T) and nontoler- ant (N) phenotypes were mapped to this reference transcriptome.

Heatmaps of the gene expression data showed strong clustering of each P+/P treated genovar, as well as clustering by N/T phenotype. Statistical analysis identified 87 isotigs to be significantly differentially expressed between N and T phenotypes and 258 between P+ and P treated plants. SNPs and transcript expression that systematically differed between N and T phenotypes had regulatory function, namely proteases, kinases and ribonuclear RNA- binding protein and transposable elements.

A single gene for arsenate tolerance led to distinct phenotype transcriptomes and SNP pro- files, with large differences in upstream post-translational and post-transcriptional regulatory genes rather than in genes directly involved in P nutrition transport and metabolism per se.

Intermittent chemotherapy plus either intermittent or continuous cetuximab for first-line treatment of patients with KRAS wild-type advanced colorectal cancer (COIN-B): a randomised phase 2 trial

Background: Advanced colorectal cancer is treated with a combination of cytotoxic drugs and targeted treatments. However, how best to minimise the time spent taking cytotoxic drugs and whether molecular selection can refine this further is unknown. The primary aim of this study was to establish how cetuximab might be safely and effectively added to intermittent chemotherapy.

Methods: COIN-B was an open-label, multicentre, randomised, exploratory phase 2 trial done at 30 hospitals in the UK and one in Cyprus. We enrolled patients with advanced colorectal cancer who had received no previous chemotherapy for metastases. Randomisation was done centrally (by telephone) by the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit using minimisation with a random element. Treatment allocation was not masked. Patients were assigned (1:1) to intermittent chemotherapy plus intermittent cetuximab or to intermittent chemotherapy plus continuous cetuximab. Chemotherapy was FOLFOX (folinic acid and oxaliplatin followed by bolus and infused fluorouracil). Patients in both groups received FOLFOX and weekly cetuximab for 12 weeks, then either had a planned interruption (those taking intermittent cetuximab) or planned maintenance by continuing on weekly cetuximab (continuous cetuximab). On RECIST progression, FOLFOX plus cetuximab or FOLFOX was recommenced for 12 weeks followed by further interruption or maintenance cetuximab, respectively. The primary outcome was failure-free survival at 10 months. The primary analysis population consisted of patients who completed 12 weeks of treatment without progression, death, or leaving the trial. We tested BRAF and NRAS status retrospectively. The trial was registered, ISRCTN38375681.

Findings: We registered 401 patients, 226 of whom were enrolled. Results for 169 with KRAS wild-type are reported here, 78 (46%) assigned to intermittent cetuximab and 91 (54%) to continuous cetuximab. 64 patients assigned to intermittent cetuximab and 66 of those assigned to continuous cetuximab were included in the primary analysis. 10-month failure-free survival was 50% (lower bound of 95% CI 39) in the intermittent group versus 52% (lower bound of 95% CI 41) in the continuous group; median failure-free survival was 12·2 months (95% CI 8·8–15·6) and 14·3 months (10·7–20·4), respectively. The most common grade 3–4 adverse events were skin rash (21 [27%] of 77 patients vs 20 [22%] of 92 patients), neutropenia (22 [29%] vs 30 [33%]), diarrhoea (14 [18%] vs 23 [25%]), and lethargy (20 [26%] vs 19 [21%]).

Interpretation: Cetuximab was safely incorporated in two first-line intermittent chemotherapy strategies. Maintenance of biological monotherapy, with less cytotoxic chemotherapy within the first 6 months, in molecularly selected patients is promising and should be validated in phase 3 trials.