Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

Smartphone and GPS technology for freeroaming dog population surveillance -a methodological study (Studio metodologico sull’applicazione di smartphone e tecnologia GPS alla sorveglianza delle popolazioni di cani vaganti)

Free-roaming dogs (FRD) represent a potential threat to the quality of life in cities from an ecological, social and public health point of view. One of the most urgent concerns is the role of uncontrolled dogs as reservoirs of infectious diseases transmittable to humans and, above all, rabies. An estimate of the FRD population size and characteristics in a given area is the first step for any relevant intervention programme. Direct count methods are still prominent because of their non-invasive approach, information technologies can support such methods facilitating data collection and allowing for a more efficient data handling. This paper presents a new framework for data collection using a topological algorithm implemented as ArcScript in ESRI® ArcGIS software, which allows for a random selection of the sampling areas. It also supplies a mobile phone application for Android® operating system devices which integrates Global Positioning System (GPS) and Google Maps™. The potential of such a framework was tested in 2 Italian regions. Coupling technological and innovative solutions associated with common counting methods facilitate data collection and transcription. It also paves the way to future applications, which could support dog population management systems.

Learning from Outdoor Webcams: Surveillance of Physical Activity Across Environments

Abstract
Publicly available, outdoor webcams continuously view the world and share images. These cameras include traffic cams, campus cams, ski-resort cams, etc. The Archive of Many Outdoor Scenes (AMOS) is a project aiming to geolocate, annotate, archive, and visualize these cameras and images to serve as a resource for a wide variety of scientific applications. The AMOS dataset has archived over 750 million images of outdoor environments from 27,000 webcams since 2006. Our goal is to utilize the AMOS image dataset and crowdsourcing to develop reliable and valid tools to improve physical activity assessment via online, outdoor webcam capture of global physical activity patterns and urban built environment characteristics.
This project’s grand scale-up of capturing physical activity patterns and built environments is a methodological step forward in advancing a real-time, non-labor intensive assessment using webcams, crowdsourcing, and eventually machine learning. The combined use of webcams capturing outdoor scenes every 30 min and crowdsources providing the labor of annotating the scenes allows for accelerated public health surveillance related to physical activity across numerous built environments. The ultimate goal of this public health and computer vision collaboration is to develop machine learning algorithms that will automatically identify and calculate physical activity patterns.

A validated UPLC–MS/MS method for the surveillance of ten aquatic biotoxins in European brackish and freshwater systems

Over the past few decades, there has been an increased frequency and duration of cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in freshwater systems globally. These can produce secondary metabolites called cyanotoxins, many of which are hepatotoxins, raising concerns about repeated exposure through ingestion of contaminated drinking water or food or through recreational activities such as bathing/ swimming. An ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC–MS/MS) multi-toxin method has been developed and validated for freshwater cyanotoxins; microcystins-LR, -YR, -RR, -LA, -LY and -LF, nodularin, cylindrospermopsin, anatoxin-a and the marine diatom toxin domoic acid. Separation was achieved in around 9 min and dual SPE was incorporated providing detection limits of between 0.3 and 5.6 ng/L of original sample. Intra- and inter-day precision analysis showed relative
standard deviations (RSD) of 1.2–9.6% and 1.3–12.0% respectively. The method was applied to the analysis of aquatic samples (n = 206) from six European countries. The main class detected were the hepatotoxins; microcystin-YR (n = 22), cylindrospermopsin (n = 25), microcystin-RR (n = 17), microcystin-LR (n = 12), microcystin-LY (n = 1), microcystin-LF (n = 1) and nodularin (n = 5). For microcystins, the levels detected ranged from 0.001 to 1.51 mg/L, with two samples showing combined levels above the guideline set by the WHO of 1 mg/L for microcystin-LR. Several samples presented with multiple toxins indicating the potential for synergistic effects and possibly enhanced toxicity. This is the first published pan European survey of freshwater bodies for multiple biotoxins, including two identified for the first time; cylindrospermopsin in Ireland and nodularin in Germany, presenting further incentives for improved monitoring and development of strategies to mitigate human exposure.

A comparison of endoscopy versus pathology sizing of colorectal adenomas and potential implications for surveillance colonoscopy

Background and AimsTo compare endoscopy and pathology sizing in a large population-based series of colorectal adenomas and to evaluate the implications for patient stratification into surveillance colonoscopy.MethodsEndoscopy and pathology sizes available from intact adenomas removed at colonoscopies performed as part of the Northern Ireland Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, from 2010 to 2015, were included in this study. Chi-squared tests were applied to compare size categories in relation to clinicopathological parameters and colonoscopy surveillance strata according to current American Gastroenterology Association and British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines.ResultsA total of 2521 adenomas from 1467 individuals were included. There was a trend toward larger endoscopy than pathology sizing in 4 of the 5 study centers, but overall sizing concordance was good. Significantly greater clustering with sizing to the nearest 5 mm was evident in endoscopy versus pathology sizing (30% vs 19%, p<0.001), which may result in lower accuracy. Applying a 10-mm cut-off relevant to guidelines on risk stratification, 7.3% of all adenomas and 28.3% of those 8 to 12 mm in size had discordant endoscopy and pathology size categorization. Depending upon which guidelines are applied, 4.8% to 9.1% of individuals had differing risk stratification for surveillance recommendations, with the use of pathology sizing resulting in marginally fewer recommended surveillance colonoscopies.ConclusionsChoice of pathology or endoscopy approaches to determine adenoma size will potentially influence surveillance colonoscopy follow-up in 4.8% to 9.1% of individuals. Pathology sizing appears more accurate than endoscopy sizing, and preferential use of pathology size would result in a small, but clinically important, decreased burden on surveillance colonoscopy demand. Careful endoscopy sizing is required for adenomas removed piecemeal.

Contextual anomaly detection in crowded surveillance scenes

This work addresses the problem of detecting human behavioural anomalies in crowded surveillance environments. We focus in particular on the problem of detecting subtle anomalies in a behaviourally heterogeneous surveillance scene. To reach this goal we implement a novel unsupervised context-aware process. We propose and evaluate a method of utilising social context and scene context to improve behaviour analysis. We find that in a crowded scene the application of Mutual Information based social context permits the ability to prevent self-justifying groups and propagate anomalies in a social network, granting a greater anomaly detection capability. Scene context uniformly improves the detection of anomalies in both datasets. The strength of our contextual features is demonstrated by the detection of subtly abnormal behaviours, which otherwise remain indistinguishable from normal behaviour.

Real-time PCR demonstrates high prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in the Philippines:implications for surveillance and control

BACKGROUND: The Philippines has a population of approximately 103 million people, of which 6.7 million live in schistosomiasis-endemic areas with 1.8 million people being at risk of infection with Schistosoma japonicum. Although the country-wide prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in the Philippines is relatively low, the prevalence of schistosomiasis can be high, approaching 65% in some endemic areas. Of the currently available microscopy-based diagnostic techniques for detecting schistosome infections in the Philippines and elsewhere, most exhibit varying diagnostic performances, with the Kato-Katz (KK) method having particularly poor sensitivity for detecting low intensity infections. This suggests that the actual prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica may be much higher than previous reports have indicated.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Six barangay (villages) were selected to determine the prevalence of S. japonicum in humans in the municipality of Palapag, Northern Samar. Fecal samples were collected from 560 humans and examined by the KK method and a validated real-time PCR (qPCR) assay. A high S. japonicum prevalence (90.2%) was revealed using qPCR whereas the KK method indicated a lower prevalence (22.9%). The geometric mean eggs per gram (GMEPG) determined by the qPCR was 36.5 and 11.5 by the KK. These results, particularly those obtained by the qPCR, indicate that the prevalence of schistosomiasis in this region of the Philippines is much higher than historically reported.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite being more expensive, qPCR can complement the KK procedure, particularly for surveillance and monitoring of areas where extensive schistosomiasis control has led to low prevalence and intensity infections and where schistosomiasis elimination is on the horizon, as for example in southern China.

Systematic Review Protocol to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Personalised Surveillance after Colorectal Adenomatous Polypectomy

Lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) is 5% and five-year survival at early-stage is 92%. CRC risk following index colonoscopy should establish post-screening surveillance benefit, which may be greater in high-risk patients. This review evaluated published cost-effectiveness estimates of post-polypectomy surveillance to assess the potential for personalised recommendations by risk sub-group. Current data suggested colonoscopy identifies those at low-risk of CRC, who may not benefit from intensive surveillance, which risks unnecessary harms and inefficient use of colonoscopy resources. Meta-analyses of incidence of advanced-neoplasia post-polypectomy for low-risk was comparable to those without adenoma; both rates were under the lifetime risk of 5%. Therefore, greater personalisation through de-intensified strategies for low-risk individuals could be beneficial and could employ non-invasive testing such as faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) combined with primary prevention or chemoprevention, thereby reserving colonoscopy for targeted use in personalised risk-stratified surveillance.
This systematic review aims to:
1. Assess if there is evidence supporting a program of personalised surveillance in patients with colorectal adenoma according to risk sub-group.
2. Compare the effectiveness of surveillance colonoscopy with alternative prevention strategies.
3. Assess trade-off between costs, benefits and adverse effects which must be considered in a decision to adopt or reject personalised surveillance.