A computational intelligent approach to multi-factor analysis of violent crime information systems

Various scientific studies have explored the causes of violent behaviour from different perspectives, with psychological tests, in particular, applied to the analysis of crime factors. The relationship between bi-factors has also been extensively studied including the link between age and crime. In reality, many factors interact to contribute to criminal behaviour and as such there is a need to have a greater level of insight into its complex nature. In this article we analyse violent crime information systems containing data on psychological, environmental and genetic factors. Our approach combines elements of rough set theory with fuzzy logic and particle swarm optimisation to yield an algorithm and methodology that can effectively extract multi-knowledge from information systems. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms alternative genetic algorithm and dynamic reduct-based techniques for reduct identification and has the added advantage of identifying multiple reducts and hence multi-knowledge (rules). Identified rules are consistent with classical statistical analysis of violent crime data and also reveal new insights into the interaction between several factors. As such, the results are helpful in improving our understanding of the factors contributing to violent crime and in highlighting the existence of hidden and intangible relationships between crime factors.

Degradation, Harm and Survival in a Women’s Prison:Special Issue on Gendered Violence

This article is derived in in-depth qualitative research in the women’s unit of a male prison in Northern Ireland. The researchers had unprecedented observational and interview access and moved freely within the unit including the punishment block. What follows focuses primarily on the experiences of women and girls, recording their accounts of the impact on their lives of a harsh and neglectful regime. It demonstrates how the institutionalisation of violation and neglect within women’s prisons is often gender specific. Finally, it considers the key research recommendations, noting official responses.

Research Ethics in Divided and Violent Societies: Seizing the Ethical Opportunity

This chapter explores how to conduct social research in divided and violent societies by developing the concept of the ‘ethical opportunity’. The ‘ethical opportunity’ is situated in a brief discussion of ‘action’ and feminist approaches to research. It argues that seizing the ethical opportunity requires researchers to: plan for their personal safety, plan for participants’ personal safety and plan how they will communicate and disseminate their results. It draws on the author’s personal experience researching in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Northern Ireland, concluding that it is in the communication and dissemination phase that researchers’ hopes for ‘making a difference’ may be realised or dashed. It cautions would-be researchers to manage their own – and research participants’ – expectations about what social research can achieve. Its effects may not often be as transforming and liberating as idealistic researchers hope for, but that should not dissuade them from striving towards those ends.

Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.

Minimising harm from alcohol misuse: Challenges to the development of effective policy

Successive substance misuse strategies in Northern Ireland and elsewhere have
been underpinned by the goal of minimising the harm accruing from the use of alcohol and other drugs. However, what it means for a person’s alcohol use to cause harm is an evolving concept. As the understanding of harm changes, the type of evidence needed to estimate the scale of harm and to evaluate the success of a given initiative changes also.
This paper does three things. We first highlight a recent model by Laslett and
colleagues for estimating the harm of one individual’s alcohol use to other individuals, the centrepiece of a report to the Alcohol Education and Research Foundation (AERF) in 2010. This model has been hugely influential in identifying areas where harms from alcohol use accrue and in attempting to quantify those harms (e.g. the cost of injuries inflicted during intoxication). We suggest three ways in which this model could be improved by accounting for: (a) the influence of one individual’s drinking on the drinking behaviour of their peers; (b) the level of use which triggers a given harm; and (c) the degree of time-lag in each of
the domains of harm.
Secondly, we explore specific challenges to developing effective policy on
adolescents’ drinking behaviours, drawing on research which specifically elicits the perspectives of young people on why they drink.
Thirdly, we examine the relative harms of allowing moderate levels of drinking
among mid-adolescents versus promoting zero use up until late adolescence.

Invisible Victims: Recorded Crime and Children in the UK

While violence against children is a common occurrence only a minority of incidents come to the attention of the authorities. Low reporting rates notwithstanding, official data such as child protection referrals and recorded crime statistics provide valuable information on the numbers of children experiencing harm which come to the attention of professionals in any given year. In the UK, there has been a strong tendency to focus on child protection statistics while children as victims of crime remain largely invisible in annual crime reports and associated compendia. This is despite the implementation of a raft of policies aimed at improving the system response to victims and witnesses of crime across the UK. This paper demonstrates the utility of a more detailed analysis of crime statistics in providing information on the patterns of crime against children and examining case outcomes. Based on data made available by the Police Service for Northern Ireland, it highlights how violent crime differentially impacts on older children and how detection rates vary depending on case characteristics. It makes an argument for developing recorded crime practice to make child victims of crime more visible and to facilitate assessment of the effectiveness of current initiatives and policy developments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Type Ia supernovae from violent mergers of carbon-oxygen white dwarfs: polarization signatures

The violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs has been proposed as a viable progenitor for some Type Ia supernovae. However, it has been argued that the strong ejecta asymmetries produced by this model might be inconsistent with the low degree of polarization typically observed in Type Ia supernova explosions. Here, we test this claim by carrying out a spectropolarimetric analysis for the model proposed by Pakmor et al. for an explosion triggered during the merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ carbon-oxygen white dwarf binary system. Owing to the asymmetries of the ejecta, the polarization signal varies significantly with viewing angle. We find that polarization levels for observers in the equatorial plane are modest (≲1 per cent) and show clear evidence for a dominant axis, as a consequence of the ejecta symmetry about the orbital plane. In contrast, orientations out of the plane are associated with higher degrees of polarization and departures from a dominant axis. While the particular model studied here gives a good match to highly polarized events such as SN 2004dt, it has difficulties in reproducing the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Specifically, we find that significant asymmetries in the element distribution result in a wealth of strong polarization features that are not observed in the majority of currently available spectropolarimetric data of Type Ia supernovae. Future studies will map out the parameter space of the merger scenario to investigate if alternative models can provide better agreement with observations.

The peculiar Type Ia supernova iPTF14atg: Chandrasekhar-mass explosion or violent merger?

iPTF14atg, a subluminous peculiar Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) similar to SN 2002es, is the first SN Ia for which a strong UV flash was observed in the early-time light curves. This has been interpreted as evidence for a single-degenerate (SD) progenitor system, where such a signal is expected from interactions between the SN ejecta and the non-degenerate companion star. Here, we compare synthetic observables of multidimensional state-of-the-art explosion models for different progenitor scenarios to the light curves and spectra of iPTF14atg. From our models, we have difficulties explaining the spectral evolution of iPTF14atg within the SD progenitor channel. In contrast, we find that a violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs with 0.9 and 0.76 M⊙, respectively, provides an excellent match to the spectral evolution of iPTF14atg from 10 d before to several weeks after maximum light. Our merger model does not naturally explain the initial UV flash of iPTF14atg. We discuss several possibilities like interactions of the SN ejecta with the circumstellar medium and surface radioactivity from an He-ignited merger that may be able to account for the early UV emission in violent merger models.

Indeterminate Sentences for the Severely Personality Disordered

In line with recent incapacitative efforts aimed at dealing with dangerous people in the community, the Government has proposed a new indeterminate sentence to deal with the current gap in the law which exists in relation to dangerous individuals with untreatable severe personality disorders. However, these new measures have serious civil liberty implications and are largely unworkable in practice. It is suggested that rather than introducing these new powers it would be better to consider amending deficiencies which exist in the criminal justice and mental health systems in respect of the management of violent and sexual offenders.

Secular Trends in Substance Use: The Conflict and Young People in Northern Ireland

The resolution of political conflict has led some to suggest that Northern Ireland will now face a range of social problems that have been ignored or suppressed by the Troubles. One such area is adolescent drug use. In this article, a review of a range of data sources shows that drug use, with few exceptions, has increased since the emergence of the ongoing peace process. Social and political changes and enhanced paramilitary involvement in the drugs trade appear to have somehow created an environment where drug use has flourished. In reviewing current drug policy and practice, the article highlights the lack of prevention, treatment, and harm reduction services established in Northern Ireland as a cause for concern.