86 resultados para Uncertainty in Wind Energy


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Purpose
– Concern of the deterioration of indoor environmental quality as a result of energy efficient building design strategies is growing. Apprehensions of the effect of airtight, super insulated envelopes, the reduction of infiltration, and the reliance on mechanical systems to provide adequate ventilation (air supply) is promoting emerging new research in this field. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an indoor air quality (IAQ) and thermal comfort investigation in UK energy efficient homes, through a case study investigation.

Design/methodology/approach
– The case study dwellings consisted of a row of six new-build homes which utilize mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) systems, are built to an average airtightness of 2m3/m2/hr at 50 Pascal’s, and constructed without a central heating system. Physical IAQ measurements and occupant interviews were conducted during the summer and winter months over a 24-hour period, to gain information on occupant activities, perception of the interior environment, building-related health and building use.

Findings
– The results suggest inadequate IAQ and perceived thermal comfort, insufficient use of purge ventilation, presence of fungal growth, significant variances in heating patterns, occurrence of sick building syndrome symptoms and issues with the MVHR system.

Practical implications
– The findings will provide relevant data on the applicability of airtight, mechanically ventilated homes in a UK climate, with particular reference to IAQ.

Originality/value
– IAQ data of this nature is essentially lacking, particularly in the UK context. The findings will aid the development of effective sustainable design strategies that are appropriate to localized climatic conditions and sensitive to the health of building occupants.

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Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

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Over the last decade there has been a rapid global increase in wind power stimulated by energy and climate policies. However, as wind power is inherently variable and stochastic over a range of time scales, additional system balancing is required to ensure system reliability and stability. This paper reviews the technical, policy and market challenges to achieving ambitious wind power penetration targets in Ireland’s All-Island Grid and examines a number of measures proposed to address these challenges. Current government policy in Ireland is to address these challenges with additional grid reinforcement, interconnection and open-cycle gas plant. More recently smart grid combined with demand side management and electric vehicles have also been presented as options to mitigate the variability of wind power. In addition, the transmission system operators have developed wind farm specific grid codes requiring improved turbine controls and wind power forecasting techniques.

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The MaRINET project aims to build a synergy in the European marine renewable energy development infrastructure network, involving a total of 28 partners across the union. Its scope extends from small to large scale testing, in both tank and field. The main activities of the project are to standardize test procedures, to provide centralized free access for European technology developers, and to innovate for improving test infrastructures and techniques.
This paper presents the work carried in this last part, which focuses on research objectives identified to be current challenges for industrial development. They are distributed in 6 topics. On the one hand are issues that concern directly one of the 3 types of energy scoped in the project: wave, tidal, and offshore wind energy. Two examples are the real time estimation of incident waves, and the measurement of turbulence in tidal flows. On the other hand, collaborative effort is drawn on aspects that are common to those technologies: electrical components, environmental monitoring, and dedicated moorings.

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This short paper, structured in 3 distinct sections will touch on some of the key features of the Oyster wave energy device and its recent development. The first section discusses the nature of the resource in the nearshore environment,
some common misunderstandings in relation to it and its suitability for exploitation of commercial wave energy. In the second section a brief description of some of the fundamentals governing flap type devices is given. This serves to emphasise core differences between the Oyster device and other devices. Despite the simplicity of the design and the operation of the device itself, it is shown that Oyster occupies a theoretical space which is substantially outside most established theories and axioms in wave energy. The third section will give a short summary of the recent developments in the design of the Oyster 2 project and touch on how its enhanced features deal with some of the key commercial and technical challenges present in the sector.

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Increasing installed capacities of wind power in an effort to achieve sustainable power systems for future generations pose problems for system operators. Volatility in generation volumes due to the adoption of stochastic wind power is increasing. Storage has been shown to act as a buffer for these stochastic energy sources, facilitating the integration of renewable energy into a historically inflexible power system. This paper examines peak and off peak benefits realised by installing a short term discharge storage unit in a system with a high penetration of wind power in 2020. A fully representative unit commitment and economic dispatch model is used to analyse two scenarios, one ‘with storage’ and one ‘without storage’. Key findings of this preliminary study show that wind curtailment can be reduced in the storage scenario, with a larger reduction in peak time ramping of gas generators is realised.

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The growth of wind power in some power systems is hampered by the system requirement for emergency reserve to cover loss of the biggest infeed. The study demonstrates that reserve provision from the wind sector itself has economic and operational benefits. A heuristic algorithm has been developed that can model the relevant aspects of emergency reserve provision in a system with both thermal and wind generations. The proposed algorithm is first validated by comparing its performance with established economic scheduling methods applied to a representative power system. The algorithm is then used to demonstrate the economic benefit of reserve provision from the wind sector. It is shown that such provision reduces wind energy curtailment and thermal unit ramping. Finally, it is shown that a wind sector capable of providing emergency reserve can expand economically beyond the capacity limit that would otherwise apply.

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Approximately half of the houses in Northern Ireland were built before any form of minimum thermal specification (U-value) or energy efficiency standard were available. At present, 44% of households are categorised as being in fuel poverty; spending more than 10% of the household income to heat the house to an acceptable level. This paper presents the results from long term performance monitoring of 4 case study houses that have undergone retrofits to improve energy efficiency in Northern Ireland. There is some uncertainty associated with some of the marketed retrofit measures in terms of their effectiveness in reducing energy usage and their potential to cause detrimental impacts on the internal environment of a house. Using wireless sensor technology internal conditions such as temperature and humidity were measured alongside gas and electricity usage for a year. External weather conditions were also monitored. The paper considers the effectiveness of the different retrofit measures implemented based on the long term data monitoring and short term building performance evaluation tests that were completed.

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In many countries wind energy has become an indispensable part of the electricity generation mix. The opportunity for ground based wind turbine systems are becoming more and more constrained due to limitations on turbine hub heights, blade lengths and location restrictions linked to environmental and permitting issues including special areas of conservation and social acceptance due to the visual and noise impacts. In the last decade there have been numerous proposals to harness high altitude winds, such as tethered kites, airfoils and dirigible based rotors. These technologies are designed to operate above the neutral atmospheric boundary layer of 1,300 m, which are subject to more powerful and persistent winds thus generating much higher electricity capacities. This paper presents an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art of high altitude wind power, evaluates the technical and economic viability of deploying high altitude wind power as a resource in Northern Ireland and identifies the optimal locations through considering wind data and geographical constraints. The key findings show that the total viable area over Northern Ireland for high altitude wind harnessing devices is 5109.6 km2, with an average wind power density of 1,998 W/m2 over a 20-year span, at a fixed altitude of 3,000 m. An initial budget for a 2MW pumping kite device indicated a total cost £1,751,402 thus proving to be economically viable with other conventional wind-harnessing devices.

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Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.