Stated choices and benefit estimates in the context of traffic calming schemes:Utility maximization, regret minimization, or both?

This paper proposes a discrete mixture model which assigns individuals, up to a probability, to either a class of random utility (RU) maximizers or a class of random regret (RR) minimizers, on the basis of their sequence of observed choices. Our proposed model advances the state of the art of RU-RR mixture models by (i) adding and simultaneously estimating a membership model which predicts the probability of belonging to a RU or RR class; (ii) adding a layer of random taste heterogeneity within each behavioural class; and (iii) deriving a welfare measure associated with the RU-RR mixture model and consistent with referendum-voting, which is the adequate mechanism of provision for such local public goods. The context of our empirical application is a stated choice experiment concerning traffic calming schemes. We find that the random parameter RU-RR mixture model not only outperforms its fixed coefficient counterpart in terms of fit-as expected-but also in terms of plausibility of membership determinants of behavioural class. In line with psychological theories of regret, we find that, compared to respondents who are familiar with the choice context (i.e. the traffic calming scheme), unfamiliar respondents are more likely to be regret minimizers than utility maximizers. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Production of a broad specificity antibody for the development and validation of an optical SPR screening method for free and intracellular microcystins and nodularin in cyanobacteria cultures

A highly sensitive broad specificity monoclonal antibody was produced and characterised for microcystin detection through the development of a rapid surface plasmon resonance (SPR) optical biosensor based immunoassay. The antibody displayed the following cross-reactivity: MC-LR 100%; MC-RR 108%; MC-YR 68%; MC-LA 69%; MC-LW 71%; MC-LF 68%; and Nodularin 94%. Microcystin-LR was covalently attached to a CM5 chip and with the monoclonal antibody was employed in a competitive 4min injection assay to detect total microcystins in water samples below the WHO recommended limit (1µg/L). A 'total microcystin' level was determined by measuring free and intracellular concentrations in cyanobacterial culture samples as this toxin is an endotoxin. Glass bead beating was used to lyse the cells as a rapid extraction procedure. This method was validated according to European Commission Decision 96/23/EC criteria. The method was proven to measure intracellular microcystin levels, the main source of the toxin, which often goes undetected by other analytical procedures and is advantageous in that it can be used for the monitoring of blooms to provide an early warning of toxicity. It was shown to be repeatable and reproducible, with recoveries from spiked samples ranging from 74 to 123%, and had % CVs below 10% for intra-assay analysis and 15% for inter-assay analysis. The detection capability of the assay was calculated as 0.5ng/mL for extracellular toxins and 0.05ng/mL for intracellular microcystins. A comparison of the SPR method with LC-MS/MS was achieved by testing six Microcystis aeruginosa cultures and this study yielded a correlation R(2) value of 0.9989.

Silk-inspired polymers and proteins

The biocompatibility and biodegradability of natural silk fibres and the benign conditions under which they (with impressive mechanical properties) are produced represent a biomimetic ideal. This ideal has inspired people in both academia and industry to prepare silk-mimetic polymers and proteins by chemical and/or biotechnological means. in the present paper, we aim to give an overview of the design principles of such silk-inspired polymers/proteins, their processing into various materials morphologies, their mechanical and biological properties, and, finally, their technical and biomedical applications.

Non-covalent hydrogels of cyclodextrins and poloxamines for the controlled release of proteins

Different types of gels were prepared by combining poloxamines (Tetronic), i.e. poly(ethylene oxide)/poly(propylene oxide) (PEO/PPO) octablock star copolymers, and cyclodextrins (CD). Two different poloxamines with the same molecular weight (ca. 7000) but different molecular architectures were used. For each of their four diblock arms, direct Tetronic 904 presents PEO outer blocks while in reverse Tetronic 90R4 the hydrophilic PEO blocks are the inner ones. These gels were prepared by combining alpha-CD and poloxamine aqueous solutions. The physicochemical properties of these systems depend on several factors such as the structure of the block copolymers and the Tetronic/alpha-CD ratio. These gels were characterized using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), viscometry and X-ray diffraction measurements. The 90R4 gels present a consistency that makes them suitable for sustained drug delivery. The resulting gels were easily eroded: these complexes were dismantled when placed in a large amount of water, so controlled release of entrapped large molecules such as proteins (Bovine Serum Albumin, BSA) is feasible and can be tuned by varying the copolymer/CD ratio. 

Old truths and new politics:Does truth commission 'publicness' impact democratization?

This article analyzes the relationship between truth and politics by asking whether the 'publicness' of a truth commission - defined by whether it has public hearings, releases a public report, and names perpetrators - contributes to democratization. The article reviews scholarship relevant to the potential democratizing effects of truth commissions and derives mechanisms that help explain this relationship. Work from the transitional justice field as well as democratization and political transition more generally is considered. Using a newly-constructed Truth Commission Publicness Dataset (TCPD), the analysis finds that even after statistically controlling for initial levels of democracy, democratic trends in the years prior to a commission, level of wealth, amnesties and/or trials, the influence of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and different cutoff points for measuring democratization across a number of models, more publicness predicts higher levels of democracy years after the commission has finished its work. The more public a truth commission is, the more it will contribute to democratization. The finding that more public truth commissions are associated with higher levels of democratization indicates particular strategies that policymakers, donors, and civil society activists may take to improve prospects for democracy in a country planning a truth commission in the wake of violence and/or government abuse. © The Author(s) 2012.

Lifestyle factors and small intestine adenocarcinoma risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Although the incidence of small intestinal adenocarcinoma (SIA) is low, rates are increasing and little information regarding modifiable lifestyle risk factors is available.

Aim: To provide a systematic review of lifestyle factors and SIA risk.

Methods: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and WEB OF SCIENCE were searched from inception to Week 1 October 2013. Nine publications that reported on SIA risk in relation to alcohol intake (n=6), tobacco smoking (n=6), diet (n=5), body mass (n=3), physical activity (n=1), hormone use (n=1) and/or socio-economic status (n=3) were retrieved. Results for alcohol, smoking and SIA risk were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses to produce relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results: The summary RR for individuals consuming the highest versus lowest category of alcohol intake was 1.51 (95% CI 0.83-2.75; n=5 studies) with significant increased risks emerging in sensitivity analysis with reduced heterogeneity (RR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.05-3.15; n=4 studies). The pooled SIA RR for individuals in the highest versus lowest category of smoking was 1.24 (95% CI 0.71-2.17; n=5 studies). In relation to dietary factors, high fibre intakes and normal body weight may be protective, while high intakes of red/processed meat and sugary drinks may increase SIA risk. Evidence on socio-economic status and SIA risk was equivocal. Data on other factors were too sparse to draw any conclusions.

Conclusions: Alcohol may be associated with an increased risk of SIA. Further investigation of lifestyle factors, particularly alcohol, smoking and diet, in the aetiology of this cancer is warranted in large consortial studies.

Processes influencing surface interaction and photocatalytic destruction of microcystins on titanium dioxide photocatalysts

Microcystins are a family of hepatotoxic peptides produced by freshwater cyanobacteria. Their occurrence in drinking water is of concern since chronic exposure to these toxins causes tumor promotion. It is therefore essential to establish a reliable treatment strategy that will ensure their removal from potable water. We have previously described the rapid destruction of microcystin-LR using TiO₂ photocatalysis, however, since there are at least 70 microcystin variants it is essential that the destruction of a number of microcystins be evaluated. In this study the dark adsorption and destruction of four microcystins was followed over a range of pH. All four microcystins were destroyed although the efficiency of their removal varied. The two more hydrophobic microcystins (-LW and -LF) were found to have high dark adsorption (98 and 91% at pH 4) in contrast to microcystin-RR, which was found to have almost no (only 2-3%) dark adsorption across all pH. 

Primary care organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide.

Aim: To determine the long-term impact of organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD.

Design and setting: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from CENTRAL, MEDLINE®, Embase, and CINAHL published January 2007 to January 2013.

Method: Searches were conducted for randomised controlled trials of patients with established IHD, with long-term follow-up, of cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change in primary care or community settings. A random-effects model was used and risk ratios were calculated.

Results: Five studies were included with 4005 participants. Meta-analysis of four studies with mortality data at 4.7–6 years showed that organisational interventions were associated with approximately 20% reduced mortality, with a risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66 to 0.93), and a RR for cardiac-related mortality of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.94). Two studies reported mortality data at 10 years. Analysis of these data showed no significant differences between groups. There were insufficient data to conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of interventions on hospital admissions. Additional analyses showed no significant association between organisational interventions and risk factor management or appropriate prescribing at 4.7–6 years.

Conclusion: Cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change are associated with a reduced risk of death for at least 4–6 years. There is insufficient evidence to conclude whether this beneficial effect is maintained indefinitely.

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

HPV prevalence and type-distribution in cervical cancer and premalignant lesions of the cervix: A population-based study from Northern Ireland

Assessment of Human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and genotype distribution is important for monitoring the impact of prophylactic HPV vaccination. This study aimed to demonstrate the HPV genotypes predominating in pre-malignant and cervical cancers in Northern Ireland (NI) before the vaccination campaign has effect. Formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue blocks from 2,303 women aged 16-93 years throughout NI were collated between April 2011 and February 2013. HPV DNA was amplified by PCR and HPV genotyping undertaken using the Roche^® linear array detection kit. In total, 1,241 out of 1,830 eligible samples (68.0%) tested positive for HPV, with the majority of these [1,181/1,830 (64.5%)] having high-risk (HR) HPV infection; 37.4% were positive for HPV-16 (n=684) and 5.1% for HPV-18 (n=93). HPV type-specific prevalence was 48.1%, 65.9%, 81.3%, 92.2%, and 64.3% among cervical intraepithelial neoplasias (CIN) Grades I-III, squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) cases, respectively. Most SCC cases (81.3%) had only one HPV genotype detected and almost a third (32.0%) of all cervical pathologies were HPV negative including 51.9% of CIN I (n=283), 34.1% CIN II (n=145), 18.7% of CIN III (n=146), 7.8% of SCC (n=5), and 35.7% of AC (n=5) cases. This study provides important baseline data for monitoring the effect of HPV vaccination in NI and for comparison with other UK regions. The coverage of other HR-HPV genotypes apart from 16 and 18, including HPV-45, 31, 39, and 52, and the potential for cross protection, should be considered when considering future polyvalent vaccines.

Magnitude differences in bioactive compounds, chemical functional groups, fatty acid profiles, nutrient degradation and digestion, molecular structure and metabolic characteristics of protein in newly developed yellow-seeded and black-seeded canola lines.

Recently, new lines of yellow-seeded (CS-Y) and black-seeded canola (CS-B) have been developed with chemical and structural alteration through modern breeding technology. However, no systematic study was found on the bioactive compounds, chemical functional groups, fatty acid profiles, inherent structure, nutrient degradation and absorption, or metabolic characteristics between the newly developed yellow- and black-seeded canola lines. This study aimed to systematically characterize chemical, structural, and nutritional features in these canola lines. The parameters accessed include bioactive compounds and antinutrition factors, chemical functional groups, detailed chemical and nutrient profiles, energy value, nutrient fractions, protein structure, degradation kinetics, intestinal digestion, true intestinal protein supply, and feed milk value. The results showed that the CS-Y line was lower (P ≤ 0.05) in neutral detergent fiber (122 vs 154 g/kg DM), acid detergent fiber (61 vs 99 g/kg DM), lignin (58 vs 77 g/kg DM), nonprotein nitrogen (56 vs 68 g/kg DM), and acid detergent insoluble protein (11 vs 35 g/kg DM) than the CS-B line. There was no difference in fatty acid profiles except C20:1 eicosenoic acid content (omega-9) which was in lower in the CS-Y line (P < 0.05) compared to the CS-B line. The glucosinolate compounds differed (P < 0.05) in terms of 4-pentenyl, phenylethyl, 3-CH3-indolyl, and 3-butenyl glucosinolates (2.9 vs 1.0 μmol/g) between the CS-Y and CS-B lines. For bioactive compounds, total polyphenols tended to be different (6.3 vs 7.2 g/kg DM), but there were no differences in erucic acid and condensed tannins with averages of 0.3 and 3.1 g/kg DM, respectively. When protein was portioned into five subfractions, significant differences were found in PA, PB1 (65 vs 79 g/kg CP), PB2, and PC fractions (10 vs 33 g/kg CP), indicating protein degradation and supply to small intestine differed between two new lines. In terms of protein structure spectral profile, there were no significant differences in functional groups of amides I and II, α helix, and β-sheet structure as well as their ratio between the two new lines, indicating no difference in protein structure makeup and conformation between the two lines. In terms of energy values, there were significant differences in total digestible nutrient (TDN; 149 vs 133 g/kg DM), metabolizable energy (ME; 58 vs 52 MJ/kg DM), and net energy for lactation (NEL; 42 vs 37 MJ/kg DM) between CS-Y and CS-B lines. For in situ rumen degradation kinetics, the two lines differed in soluble fraction (S; 284 vs 341 g/kg CP), potential degradation fraction (D; 672 vs 590 g/kg CP), and effective degraded organic matter (EDOM; 710 vs 684 g/kg OM), but no difference in degradation rate. CS-Y had higher digestibility of rumen bypass protein in the intestine than CS-B (566 vs 446 g/kg of RUP, P < 0.05). Modeling nutrient supply results showed that microbial protein synthesis (MCP; 148 vs 171 g/kg DM) and rumen protein degraded balance (DPB; 108 vs 127 g/kg DM) were lower in the CS-Y line, but there were no differences in total truly digested protein in small intestine (DVE) and feed milk value (FMV) between the two lines. In conclusion, the new yellow line had different nutritional, chemical, and structural features compared to the black line. CS-Y provided better nutrient utilization and availability.

A validated UPLC–MS/MS method for the surveillance of ten aquatic biotoxins in European brackish and freshwater systems

Over the past few decades, there has been an increased frequency and duration of cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in freshwater systems globally. These can produce secondary metabolites called cyanotoxins, many of which are hepatotoxins, raising concerns about repeated exposure through ingestion of contaminated drinking water or food or through recreational activities such as bathing/ swimming. An ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC–MS/MS) multi-toxin method has been developed and validated for freshwater cyanotoxins; microcystins-LR, -YR, -RR, -LA, -LY and -LF, nodularin, cylindrospermopsin, anatoxin-a and the marine diatom toxin domoic acid. Separation was achieved in around 9 min and dual SPE was incorporated providing detection limits of between 0.3 and 5.6 ng/L of original sample. Intra- and inter-day precision analysis showed relative
standard deviations (RSD) of 1.2–9.6% and 1.3–12.0% respectively. The method was applied to the analysis of aquatic samples (n = 206) from six European countries. The main class detected were the hepatotoxins; microcystin-YR (n = 22), cylindrospermopsin (n = 25), microcystin-RR (n = 17), microcystin-LR (n = 12), microcystin-LY (n = 1), microcystin-LF (n = 1) and nodularin (n = 5). For microcystins, the levels detected ranged from 0.001 to 1.51 mg/L, with two samples showing combined levels above the guideline set by the WHO of 1 mg/L for microcystin-LR. Several samples presented with multiple toxins indicating the potential for synergistic effects and possibly enhanced toxicity. This is the first published pan European survey of freshwater bodies for multiple biotoxins, including two identified for the first time; cylindrospermopsin in Ireland and nodularin in Germany, presenting further incentives for improved monitoring and development of strategies to mitigate human exposure.