Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

Europe's New Border Tax.

Instead of abolishing internal border controls in 1993, the European Union (EU) replaced them with VAT and statistical requirements that appear to be just as onerous. For Dutch businesses, the compliance costs of the new requirements are, on average, 5 per cent of the value of their intra-EU trade. The figure is probably higher for other EU Member States. Obviously, the costs constitute a (differentiated) border tax that impedes intra-EU trade. The article analyses the determinants of the compliance costs, as well as their effect on intra-EU trade intensity. The article submits that the differential compliance costs violate the non-discrimination provisions of the EC Treaty. Suggestions are made to reduce them.

Property rights and competing for the affections of Demos: The Impact of the 1867 Reform Act on stock prices

The 1867 Reform Act in Britain extended the electoral franchise to the skilled but propertyless urban working classes. Using stock market data and exploiting the fact that foreign and domestic equities traded simultaneously on the London market, this paper finds that investors in British firms reacted negatively to the passage of this Act. We suggest that this finding is consistent with investors foreseeing future alterations of property rights arising from the pressure that the large newly enfranchised group would bring to bear on government policy. We also suggest that our findings appear to be more consistent with the Tory political competition explanation for the Act rather than the Whig threat-of-revolution explanation.

Globalization, Police Reform and Development; Doing it the Western Way?

Under what conditions does successful police reform take place? Can democratic forms of policing exist within undemocratic state structures? What are the motives of donor and recipient nations, and can the norms of global civil society be cultivated in order to promote human rights, democratic governance, and fair and accountable policing? These questions are addressed in this volume, which presents a unique examination of Western-led police reform efforts by theoretically linking neoliberal globalization, police reform and development. The authors present seven country case studies based on this theoretical approach (Afghanistan, Brazil, Iraq, Northern Ireland, South Africa, Trinidad and Tobago, and Turkey) and assess the prospects for successful police reform in a global context.

Annotated Bibliography: Grande Bretagne / Great Britain: Part Three: The Problem of Rights and the Literature of Constitutional Reform

(With C.N. Doe.)