Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species' vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom-up directed, but not for top-down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top-down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.

PCR amplification of short tandem repeat sequences allows serial studies of chimaerism/engraftment following BMT in rodents

Animal models of bone marrow transplantation (BMT) allow evaluation of new experimental treatment strategies. One potential strategy involves the treatment of donor marrow with ultra-violet B light to allow transplantation across histocompatibility boundaries without an increase in graft rejection or graft-versus-host disease. A major requirement for a new experimental protocol, particularly if it involves manipulation of the donor marrow, is that the manipulated marrow gives rise to long-term multilineage engraftment. DNA based methodologies are now routinely used by many centres to evaluate engraftment and degree of chimaerism post-BMT in humans. We report the adaptation of this methodology to the serial study of engraftment in rodents. Conditions have been defined which allow analysis of serial tail vein samples using PCR of short tandem repeat sequences (STR-PCR). These markers have been used to evaluate the contribution of ultraviolet B treated marrow to engraftment following BMT in rodents without compromising the health of the animals under study. Chimaerism data from sequential tail vein samples and bone marrow from selected sacrificed animals showed excellent correlation, thus confirming the validity of this approach in analysing haemopoietic tissue. Thus the use of this assay may facilitate experimental studies in animal BMT.

Evaluation of mixed chimerism by in vitro amplification of dinucleotide repeat sequences using the polymerase chain reaction

The influence of mixed hematopoietic chimerism (MC) after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation remains unknown. Increasingly sensitive detection methods have shown that MC occurs frequently. We report a highly sensitive novel method to assess MC based on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Simple dinucleotide repeat sequences called microsatellites have been found to vary in their repeat number between individuals. We use this variation to type donor-recipient pairs following allogeneic BMT. A panel of seven microsatellites was used to distinguish between donor and recipient cells of 32 transplants. Informative microsatellites were subsequently used to assess MC after BMT in this group of patients. Seventeen of the 32 transplants involved a donor of opposite sex; hence, cytogenetics and Y chromosome-specific PCR were also used as an index of chimerism in these patients. MC was detected in bone marrow aspirates and peripheral blood in 18 of 32 patients (56%) by PCR. In several cases, only stored slide material was available for analysis but PCR of microsatellites or Y chromosomal material could be used successfully to assess the origin of cells in this archival material. Cytogenetic analysis was possible in 17 patients and MC was detected in three patients. Twelve patients received T-cell-depleted marrow and showed a high incidence of MC as revealed by PCR (greater than 80%). Twenty patients received unmanipulated marrow, and while the incidence of MC was lower (44%), this was a high percentage when compared with other studies. Once MC was detected, the percentages of recipient cells tended to increase. However, in patients exhibiting MC who subsequently relapsed, this increase was relatively sudden. The overall level of recipient cells in the group of MC patients who subsequently relapsed was higher than in those who exhibited stable MC. Thus, while the occurrence of MC was not indicative of a poor prognosis per se, sudden increases in the proportions of recipient cells may be a prelude to graft rejection or relapse.

Secure key generation from OFDM subcarriers' channel responses

The ability to exchange keys between users is vital in any wireless based security system. A key generation technique which exploits the randomness of the wireless channel is a promising alternative to existing key distribution techniques, e.g., public key cryptography. In this paper, a secure key generation scheme based on the subcarriers' channel responses in orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) systems is proposed. We first implement a time-variant multipath channel with its channel impulse response modelled as a wide sense stationary (WSS) uncorrelated scattering random process and demonstrate that each subcarrier's channel response is also a WSS random process. We then define the X% coherence time as the time required to produce an X% correlation coefficient in the autocorrelation function (ACF) of each channel tap, and find that when all the channel taps have the same Doppler power spectrum, all subcarriers' channel responses has the same ACF as the channel taps. The subcarrier's channel response is then sampled every X% coherence time and quantized into key bits. All the key sequences' randomness is tested using National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) statistical test suite and the results indicate that the commonly used sampling interval as 50% coherence time cannot guarantee the randomness of the key sequence.