System flexibility provision using short term grid scale storage

This paper presents a novel analysis of the utilisation of small grid scale energy storage to mitigate negative system operational impacts due to high penetrations of wind power. This was investigated by artificially lowering the minimum stable generation level of a gas thermal generating unit coupled to a storage device over a five hour storage charging window using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model. The key findings of the analysis were a 0.18% reduction in wind curtailment, a 2.35 MW/min reduction in the ramping rate required to be met by all generators in the test system during a representative period and a total generation cost reduction of €6.5 million.

An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

Cyclosporin A and short-term methotrexate versus cyclosporin A as graft versus host disease prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia given allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling:results of a GITMO/EBMT randomized trial

A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

RAIN EVENTS INFLUENCE SHORT-TERM FEEDING PREFERENCES IN THE SNAIL CEPAEA NEMORALIS

Terrestrial gastropods are both herbivores and detritivores, but the ratio between these two modes of feeding can be highly variable over time. While previous studies have examined long-term seasonal patterns in the consumption of fresh material, mechanisms explaining short-term variation in dietary preferences have not been explored. We used faecal analysis to determine how short-term variation in weather affects the ratio of herbivory to detritivory in the land snail Cepaea nemoralis. Averaged across sampling dates, c. 9% of the faeces were composed of fresh plant material, with the remainder consisting of plant litter and soil. Temperature, relative humidity and soil moisture did not affect the proportional consumption of fresh material; however, snails consumed more soil with increasing temperature. If there had not been a recent precipitation event, the mean proportion of fresh material in the faeces more than doubled on average; however, this increase only occurred in areas of low herbaceous cover. Our results suggest that an increased proportion of snails consume fresh material during dry periods to compensate for water losses. Moreover, our study highlights that studies of dietary composition in the field need to account for short-term variation in feeding
preferences caused by weather.

A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions.

Designing Short Term Wave Traces to Assess Wave Power Devices

In recent years modern numerical methods have been employed in the design of Wave Energy Converters (WECs), however the high computational costs associated with their use makes it prohibitive to undertake simulations involving statistically relevant numbers of wave cycles. Experimental tests in wave tanks could also be performed more efficiently and economically if short time traces, consisting of only a few wave cycles, could be used to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of a particular device or design modification. Ideally, accurate estimations of device performance could be made utilizing results obtained from investigations with a relatively small number of wave cycles. However the difficulty here is that many WECs, such as the Oscillating Wave Surge Converter (OWSC), exhibit significant non-linearity in their response. Thus it is challenging to make accurate predictions of annual energy yield for a given spectral sea state using short duration realisations of that sea. This is because the non-linear device response to particular phase couplings of sinusoidal components within those time traces might influence the estimate of mean power capture obtained. As a result it is generally accepted that the most appropriate estimate of mean power capture for a sea state be obtained over many hundreds (or thousands) of wave cycles. This ensures that the potential influence of phase locking is negligible in comparison to the predictions made. In this paper, potential methods of providing reasonable estimates of relative variations in device performance using short duration sea states are introduced. The aim of the work is to establish the shortness of sea state required to provide statistically significant estimations of the mean power capture of a particular type of Wave Energy Converter. The results show that carefully selected wave traces can be used to reliably assess variations in power output due to changes in the hydrodynamic design or wave climate. 

ARB: Phase II window of opportunity study of short-term preoperative treatment with enzalutamide in ER-positive and triple-negative breast cancer

The androgen receptor (AR) is expressed in 60-80% of breast cancers (BC) across all molecular phenotypes, with a higher incidence in oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) BC compared to ER negative tumours. In ER+ disease, AR-expression has been linked to endocrine resistance which might be reversed with combined treatment targeting ER and AR. In triple negative BCs (TNBC), preclinical and clinical investigations have described a subset of patients that express the AR and are sensitive to androgen blockade, providing a novel therapeutic target. Enzalutamide, a potent 2nd generation anti-androgen, has demonstrated substantial preclinical and clinical anti-tumour activity in AR+ breast cancer. Short-term preoperative window of opportunity studies are a validated strategy for novel treatments to provide proof-of-concept and define the most appropriate patient population by directly assessing treatment effects in tumour tissue before and after treatment. The ARB study aims to assess the anti-tumour effects of enzalutamide in early ER+ breast cancer and TNBC, to identify the optimal target population for further studies and to directly explore the biologic effects of enzalutamide on BC and stromal cells. Methods: ARB is an international, investigator sponsored WOO phase II study in women with newly diagnosed primary ER+ BC or AR+ TNBC of ≥ 1cm. The study has two cohorts. In the ER+ cohort, postmenopausal patients will be randomised 2:1 to receive either enzalutamide (160mg OD) plus exemestane (50mg OD) or exemestane (25mg OD). In the TNBC cohort, AR+ will receive single agent treatment with enzalutamide (160mg OD). Study treatment is planned for 15–29 days, followed by surgery or neo-adjuvant therapy. Tissue and blood samples are collected before treatment and on the last day of study treatment. The primary endpoint is inhibition of tumour-cell proliferation, as measured by change in Ki67 expression, determined centrally by 2 investigators. Secondary endpoints include induction of apoptosis (Caspase3), circulating hormone levels and safety. ARB aims to recruit ≈235 patients from ≈40 sites in the UK, Germany, Spain and USA. The study is open to recruitment.

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.

Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Physiological correlates of memory recall in infancy:vagal tone, cortisol, and imitation in preterm and full-term infants at 6 months

We examined the role of physiological regulation (heart rate, vagal tone, and salivary cortisol) in short-term memory in preterm and full-term 6-month-old infants. Using a deferred imitation task to evaluate social learning and memory recall, an experimenter modeled three novel behaviors (removing, shaking, and replacing a glove) on a puppet. Infants were tested immediately after being shown the behaviors as well as following a 10-min delay. We found that greater suppression of vagal tone was related to better memory recall in full-term infants tested immediately after the demonstration as well as in preterm infants tested later after a 10-min delay. We also found that preterm infants showed greater coordination of physiology (i.e., tighter coupling of vagal tone, heart rate, and cortisol) at rest and during retrieval than full-term infants. These findings provide new evidence of the important links between changes in autonomic activity and memory recall in infancy. They also raise the intriguing possibility that social learning, imitation behavior, and the formation of new memories are modulated by autonomic activity that is coordinated differently in preterm and full-term infants.

Behavior, pain perception, and the extremely low-birth weight survivor

This article explores the literature concerning responses to pain of both premature and term-born newborn infants, the evidence for short-term and long-term effects of pain, and behavioral sequelae in individuals who have experienced repeated early pain in neonatal life as they mature. There is no doubt that pain causes stress in babies and this in turn may adversely affect long-term neurodevelopmental outcome. Although there are methods for assessing dimensions of acute reactivity to pain in an experimental setting, there are no very good measures available at the present time that can be used clinically. In the clinical setting repeated or chronic pain is more likely the norm rather than infrequent discrete noxious stimuli of the sort that can be readily studied. The wind-up phenomenon suggests that, exposed to a cascade of procedures as happens with clustering of care in the clinical setting in an attempt to provide periods of rest for stressed babies, an infant may in fact perceive procedures that are not normally viewed as noxious, as pain. Pain exposure during lifesaving intensive medical care of ELBW neonates may also affect subsequent reactivity to pain in the neonatal period, but behavioral differences are probably not likely to be clinically significant in the long term. Prolonged and repeated untreated pain in the newborn period, however, may produce a relatively permanent shift in basal autonomic arousal related to prior NICU pain experience, which may have long-term sequelae. In the long run, the most significant clinical effects of early pain exposure may be on neurodevelopment, contributing to later attention, learning, and behavior problems in these vulnerable children. Although there is considerable evidence to support a variety of adverse effects of early pain, there is less information about the long-term effects of opiates and benzodiazepines on the developing central nervous system. Current evidence reviewed suggests that judicious use of morphine for adjustment to mechanical ventilation may ameliorate the altered autonomic response. It may be very important, however, to distinguish stress from pain. Animal evidence suggests that the neonatal brain is affected differently when exposed to morphine administered in the absence of pain than in the presence of pain. Pain control may be important for many reasons but overuse of morphine or benzodiazepines may have undesirable long-term effects. This is a rapidly evolving area of knowledge of clear relevance to clinical management likely to affect long-term outcomes of high-risk children.