Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.

From 'trailing wives' to the emergence of a 'trailing husbands' phenomenon: Retirement migration to rural areas

Migration and gender studies have focused on economically active heterogeneous couples and traditionally highlight a dominant male role in migration decision-making. The female partner is commonly portrayed as a 'trailing wife' or 'trailing mother' with the move found to have a negative effect on her employment prospects. Much less is known about if or how the balance of power shifts between husbands and wives when employment or career-motivated moves are removed from the decision-making process. This is analysed with reference to retirement migration to rural areas of the UK and involved interviews with both partners present. For this cohort of retired couples, and in common with the literature, migration during economically active life course stages demonstrates strong 'trailing wife' and 'trailing mother' tendencies. The male's decision to retire signalled the commencement of a retirement life course stage for the couple. However, in contrast to the earlier male dominated decision-making, retirement migration saw the emergence of a 'trailing husband' phenomenon. Wives appear to adapt most successfully to the new rural environment while many husbands found it difficult to adjust (at least initially) to the multiple life changes: moving from largely urban areas to a rural setting alongside exiting the workforce. The findings suggest that the role of leader/ follower changed during the course of these couples' lives together and in relation to their reasons for moving.

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2011

Following the first full term of regional government in the province since 1972, the Northern Ireland Assembly election held on 5 May 2011 saw the continuation of several trends. Foremost, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin bolstered further their positions as leaders of their respective communities, with the Social Democratic and Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party losing yet more ground. Building on their decision to enter power-sharing government together in 2007, the two largest parties framed themselves as the progressive choice for voters. As this was the first Assembly election since St Andrews (2006), much of the campaign dialogue centred on the prospect of a Sinn Féin First Minister, a concern highlighted by both unionist parties. The campaign also focused on ‘normal’ socio-economic political issues and possible institutional reform. The absence of inter-party conflict led to the campaign being perceived as the most mundane in living memory, with fears of a record low turnout realised.