Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Two-stage mixed discrete-continuous identification of radial basis function (RBF) neural models for nonlinear systems

The identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using radial basis function (RBF) neural models is studied in this paper. Given a model selection criterion, the main objective is to effectively and efficiently build a parsimonious compact neural model that generalizes well over unseen data. This is achieved by simultaneous model structure selection and optimization of the parameters over the continuous parameter space. It is a mixed-integer hard problem, and a unified analytic framework is proposed to enable an effective and efficient two-stage mixed discrete-continuous; identification procedure. This novel framework combines the advantages of an iterative discrete two-stage subset selection technique for model structure determination and the calculus-based continuous optimization of the model parameters. Computational complexity analysis and simulation studies confirm the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

A Comparison of the Flow Structures and Losses Within Vaned and Vaneless Stators for Radial Turbines

This paper details the numerical analysis of different vaned and vaneless radial inflow turbine stators. Selected results are presented from a test program carried out to determine performance differences between the radial turbines with vaned stators and vaneless volutes under the same operating conditions. A commercial computational fluid dynamics code was used to develop numerical models of each of the turbine configurations, which were validated using the experimental results. From the numerical models, areas of loss generation in the different stators were identified and compared, and the stator losses were quantified. Predictions showed the vaneless turbine stators to incur lower losses than the corresponding vaned stator at matching operating conditions, in line with the trends in measured performance.. Flow conditions at rotor inlet were studied and validated with internal static pressure measurements so as to judge the levels of circumferential nonuniformity for each stator design. In each case, the vaneless volutes were found to deliver a higher level of uniformity in the rotor inlet pressure field. [DOI: 10.1115/1.2988493]

Temperature dependence of the mid-infrared dielectric function of YBCO in the a-b plane: a re-evaluation

The a-b plane dielectric function (epsilon) of c-axis YBa2Cu3O7-delta thin films with T-c > 85 K was measured at lambda = 3.392 mum in the temperature range 85-300 It, using an attenuated total reflectance (ATR) technique based on the excitation of surface plasmons, The results show that \epsilon (r)\ decreases quasi-linearly with increasing temperature, while Ei is invariant to temperature within experimental uncertainties. Typical values are epsilon (ab) = -23 + 16.5i at similar to 295 R and epsilon (ab) = -27 + 15.5i at similar to 90 K. A generalised Drude analysis yields effective scattering rates (1/tau*) that increase with temperature from similar to 1500 to similar to 1900 cm(-1). The temperature dependent rates best fit an equation of the form 1/tau* = a + bT(alpha) with alpha = 1.46 +/- 0.40. The effective plasma frequencies of w(p)* similar to 18,500 cm(-1) are almost independent of temperature. The uniquely detailed temperature dependence of the results confirm and consolidate data obtained by other groups using normal reflectance methods, but contradict our previously published ATR measurements. Technical shortcomings in the earlier work are identified as the source of the discrepancy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application

This paper examines the finite sample properties of three testing regimes for the null hypothesis of a panel unit root against stationary alternatives in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. The regimes of Bai and Ng (2004), Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are assessed in the presence of multiple factors and also other non-standard situations. The behaviour of some information criteria used to determine the number of factors in a panel is examined and new information criteria with improved properties in small-N panels proposed. An application to the efficient markets hypothesis is also provided. The null hypothesis of a panel random walk is not rejected by any of the tests, supporting the efficient markets hypothesis in the financial services sector of the Australian Stock Exchange.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Dependence of the ion energy on the parameters of the laser pulse and target in the radiation-pressure-dominated regime of acceleration

When the dominant mechanism for ion acceleration is the laser radiation pressure, the conversion efficiency of the laser energy into the energy of relativistic ions may be very high. Stability analysis of a thin plasma layer accelerated by the radiation pressure shows that Raleigh-Taylor instability may enhance plasma inhomogeneity. In the linear stage of instability, the plasma layer decays into separate bunches, which are accelerated by the radiation pressure similarly to clusters accelerated under the action of an electromagnetic wave. The energy and luminosity of an ion beam accelerated in the radiation-pressure-dominated regime are calculated.

Wavelength Dependence of Raman Enhancement from Gold Nanorod Arrays: Quantitative Experiment and Modeling of a Hot Spot Dominated System

Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectra from molecules adsorbed on the surface of vertically aligned gold nanorod arrays exhibit a variation in enhancement factor (EF) as a function of excitation wavelength that displays little correlation with the elastic optical properties of the surface. The key to understanding this lack of correlation and to obtaining agreement between experimental and calculated EF spectra lies with consideration of randomly distributed, sub-10 nm gaps between nanorods forming the substrate. Intense fields in these enhancement “hot spots” make a dominant contribution to the Raman scattering and have a very different spectral profile to that of the elastic optical response. Detailed modeling of the electric field enhancement at both excitation and scattering wavelengths was used to quantitatively predict both the spectral profile and the magnitude of the observed EF.

Spin-orbit angle measurements for six southern transiting planets. New insights into the dynamical origins of hot Jupiters

Context. Several competing scenarios for planetary-system formation and evolution seek to explain how hot Jupiters came to be so close to their parent stars. Most planetary parameters evolve with time, making it hard to distinguish between models. The obliquity of an orbit with respect to the stellar rotation axis is thought to be more stable than other parameters such as eccentricity. Most planets, to date, appear aligned with the stellar rotation axis; the few misaligned planets so far detected are massive (> 2 MJ). Aims: Our goal is to measure the degree of alignment between planetary orbits and stellar spin axes, to search for potential correlations with eccentricity or other planetary parameters and to measure long term radial velocity variability indicating the presence of other bodies in the system. Methods: For transiting planets, the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect allows the measurement of the sky-projected angle ß between the stellar rotation axis and a planet's orbital axis. Using the HARPS spectrograph, we observed the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for six transiting hot Jupiters found by the WASP consortium. We combine these with long term radial velocity measurements obtained with CORALIE. We used a combined analysis of photometry and radial velocities, fitting model parameters with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. After obtaining ß we attempt to statistically determine the distribution of the real spin-orbit angle ?. Results: We found that three of our targets have ß above 90°: WASP-2b: ß = 153°+11-15, WASP-15b: ß = 139.6°+5.2-4.3 and WASP-17b: ß = 148.5°+5.1-4.2; the other three (WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-18b) have angles compatible with 0°. We find no dependence between the misaligned angle and planet mass nor with any other planetary parameter. All six orbits are close to circular, with only one firm detection of eccentricity e = 0.00848+0.00085-0.00095 in WASP-18b. No long-term radial acceleration was detected for any of the targets. Combining all previous 20 measurements of ß and our six and transforming them into a distribution of ? we find that between about 45 and 85% of hot Jupiters have ? > 30°. Conclusions: Most hot Jupiters are misaligned, with a large variety of spin-orbit angles. We find observations and predictions using the Kozai mechanism match well. If these observational facts are confirmed in the future, we may then conclude that most hot Jupiters are formed from a dynamical and tidal origin without the necessity to use type I or II migration. At present, standard disc migration cannot explain the observations without invoking at least another additional process.