Systematic Uncertainties Associated with the Cosmological Analysis of the First PAN-STARRS1 Type Ia Supernova Sample

We probe the systematic uncertainties from the 113 Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) sample along with 197 SN Ia from a combination of low-redshift surveys. The companion paper by Rest et al. describes the photometric measurements and cosmological inferences from the PS1 sample. The largest systematic uncertainty stems from the photometric calibration of the PS1 and low-z samples. We increase the sample of observed Calspec standards from 7 to 10 used to define the PS1 calibration system. The PS1 and SDSS-II calibration systems are compared and discrepancies up to ∼0.02 mag are recovered. We find uncertainties in the proper way to treat intrinsic colors and reddening produce differences in the recovered value of w up to 3%. We estimate masses of host galaxies of PS1 supernovae and detect an insignificant difference in distance residuals of the full sample of 0.037 ± 0.031 mag for host galaxies with high and low masses. Assuming flatness and including systematic uncertainties in our analysis of only SNe measurements, we find w = -1.120^+0.360_-0.206(Stat)^+0.269_-0.291(Sys). With additional constraints from Baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background (CMB) (Planck) and H₀ measurements, we find w = -1.166^+0.072_-0.069 and Ω_m = 0.280^+0.013_-0.012 (statistical and systematic errors added in quadrature). The significance of the inconsistency with w = -1 depends on whether we use Planck or Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe measurements of the CMB: w_{BAO+H0+SN+WMAP} = -1.124^+0.083_-0.065.

Kernel based approaches to local nonlinear non-parametric variable selection

In this paper, we consider the variable selection problem for a nonlinear non-parametric system. Two approaches are proposed, one top-down approach and one bottom-up approach. The top-down algorithm selects a variable by detecting if the corresponding partial derivative is zero or not at the point of interest. The algorithm is shown to have not only the parameter but also the set convergence. This is critical because the variable selection problem is binary, a variable is either selected or not selected. The bottom-up approach is based on the forward/backward stepwise selection which is designed to work if the data length is limited. Both approaches determine the most important variables locally and allow the unknown non-parametric nonlinear system to have different local dimensions at different points of interest. Further, two potential applications along with numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed algorithms.

A Parametric Study Of A Turbogenerator On A Diesel-Electric Hybrid Bus

The fuel consumption of automotive vehicles has become a prime consideration to manufacturers and operators as fuel prices continue to rise steadily, and legislation governing toxic emissions becomes ever more strict. This is particularly true for bus operators as government fuel subsidies are cut or removed.

In an effort to reduce the fuel consumption of a diesel-electric hybrid bus, an exhaust recovery turbogenerator has been selected from a wide ranging literature review as the most appropriate method of recovering some of the wasted heat in the exhaust line. This paper examines the effect on fuel consumption of a turbogenerator applied to a 2.4-litre diesel engine.

A validated one-dimensional engine model created using Ricardo WAVE was used as a baseline, and was modified in subsequent models to include a turbogenerator downstream, and in series with, the turbocharger turbine. A fuel consumption map of the modified engine was produced, and an in-house simulation tool was then used to examine the fuel economy benefit delivered by the turbogenerator on a bus operating on various drive-cycles.

A parametric study is presented which examined the performance of turbogenerators of various size and power output. The operating strategy of the turbogenerator was also discussed with a view to maximising turbine efficiency at each operating point.

The performance of the existing turbocharger on the hybrid bus was also investigated; both the compressor and turbine were optimised and the subsequent benefits to the fuel consumption of the vehicle were shown.

The final configuration is then presented and the overall improvement in fuel economy of the hybrid bus was determined over various drive-cycles.

On Variable Selection of a Nonlinear Non-parametric System with a Limited Data Set: A Stepwise Algorithm

his paper considers a problem of identification for a high dimensional nonlinear non-parametric system when only a limited data set is available. The algorithms are proposed for this purpose which exploit the relationship between the input variables and the output and further the inter-dependence of input variables so that the importance of the input variables can be established. A key to these algorithms is the non-parametric two stage input selection algorithm.

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Parametric study to extract bridge frequencies from the dynamic response of passing vehicles

A conventional way to identify bridge frequencies is utilizing vibration data measured directly from the bridge. A drawback with this approach is that the deployment and maintenance of the vibration sensors are generally costly and time-consuming. One way to cope with the drawback is an indirect approach utilizing vehicle vibrations while the vehicle passes over the bridge. In the indirect approach, however, the vehicle vibration includes the effect of road surface roughness, which makes it difficult to extract the bridge modal properties. One solution may be subtracting signals of two trailers towed by a vehicle to reduce the effect of road surface roughness. A simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used in the numerical simulation; the vehicle - trailer and bridge system are modeled as a coupled model. In addition, a laboratory experiment is carried out to verify results of the simulation and examine feasibility of the damage detection by the indirect method.

A Parametric Study of a Drive by Bridge Inspection System Based on the Morlet Wavelet

Many of the bridges currently in use worldwide are approaching the end of their design lives. However, rehabilitating and extending the lives of these structures raises important safety issues. There is also a need for increased monitoring which has considerable cost implications for bridge management systems. Existing structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques include vibration-based approaches which typically involve direct instrumentation of the bridge and are important as they can indicate the deterioration of the bridge condition. However, they can be labour intensive and expensive. In the past decade, alternative indirect vibration-based approaches which utilise the response of a vehicle passing over a bridge have been developed. This paper investigates such an approach; a low-cost approach for the monitoring of bridge structures which consists of the use of a vehicle fitted with accelerometers on its axles. The approach aims to detect damage in the bridge while obviating the need for direct instrumentation of the bridge. Here, the effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage in a bridge is investigated using a simplified vehicle-bridge interaction (VBI) model in theoretical simulations and a scaled VBI model in a laboratory experiment. In order to identify the existence and location of damage, the vehicle accelerations are recorded and processed using a continuous Morlet wavelet transform and a damage index is established. A parametric study is carried out to investigate the effect of parameters such as the bridge span length, vehicle speed, vehicle mass, damage level and road surface roughness on the accuracy of results.

Geochronological database and classification system for age uncertainties in Neotropical pollen records.

The newly updated inventory of palaeoecological research in Latin America offers an important overview of sites available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. From the collected literature supporting this inventory, we collected all available age model metadata to create a chronological database of 5116 control points (e.g. 14C, tephra, fission track, OSL, 210Pb) from 1097 pollen records. Based on this literature review, we present a summary of chronological dating and reporting in the Neotropics. Difficulties and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Furthermore, for 234 pollen records in northwest South America, a classification system for age uncertainties is implemented based on chronologies generated with updated calibration curves. With these outcomes age models are produced for those sites without an existing chronology, alternative age models are provided for researchers interested in comparing the effects of different calibration curves and age–depth modelling software, and the importance of uncertainty assessments of chronologies is highlighted. Sample resolution and temporal uncertainty of ages are discussed for different time windows, focusing on events relevant for research on centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability. All age models and developed R scripts are publicly available through figshare, including a manual to use the scripts.

Comprehensive numerical modelling of the performance of a second harmonic generation stage coupled with a low-gain optical parametric amplifier

We present a comprehensive model for predicting the full performance of a second harmonic generation-optical parametric amplification system that aims at enhancing the temporal contrast of laser pulses. The model simultaneously takes into account all the main parameters at play in the system such as the group velocity mismatch, the beam divergence, the spectral content, the pump depletion, and the length of the nonlinear crystals. We monitor the influence of the initial parameters of the input pulse and the interdependence of the two related non-linear processes on the performance of the system and show its optimum configuration. The influence of the initial beam divergence on the spectral and the temporal characteristics of the generated pulse is discussed. In addition, we show that using a crystal slightly longer than the optimum length and introducing small delay between the seed and the pump ensures maximum efficiency and compensates for the spectral shift in the optical parametric amplification stage in case of chirped input pulse. As an example, calculations for bandwidth transform limited and chirped pulses of sub-picosecond duration in beta barium borate crystal are presented.

Parametric scans of HB and LS-RPA regimes employing Petawatt laser

By contrast to the Target Normal Sheath acceleration (TNSA) mechanism [1], Radiation Pressure Acceleration (RPA) is currently attracting a substantial amount of experimental [2,3] and theoretical [4-6] attention worldwide due to its superior scaling in terms of ion energy and laser-ion conversion efficiency. Employing Vulcan Petawatt lasers of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UK, both the Hole-boring (HB) and the Light-Sail (LS) regimes of the RPA have been extensively explored. When the target thickness is of the order of hole-boring velocity times the laser pulse duration, highly collimated plasma jets of near solid density are ejected from the foil, lasting up to ns after the laser interaction. By changing the linear polarisation of the laser to circular, improved homogeneity in the jet's spatial density profile is achieved which suggests more uniform and sustained radiation pressure drive on target ions. By decreasing the target areal density or increasing irradiance on the target, the LS regime of the RPA is accessed where relatively high flux (~ 1012 particles/MeV/Sr) of ions are accelerated to ~ 10 MeV/nucleon energies in a narrow energy bandwidth. The ion energy scaling obtained from the parametric scans agrees well with theoretical estimation based on RPA mechanism and the narrow bandwidth feature in the ion spectra is studied by 2D particle-in-simulations.

Linking Parametric CAD with Adjoint Surface Sensitivities

The goal of this work is to present an efficient CAD-based adjoint process chain for calculating parametric sensitivities (derivatives of the objective function with respect to the CAD parameters) in timescales acceptable for industrial design processes. The idea is based on linking parametric design velocities (geometric sensitivities computed from the CAD model) with adjoint surface sensitivities. A CAD-based design velocity computation method has been implemented based on distances between discrete representations of perturbed geometries. This approach differs from other methods due to the fact that it works with existing commercial CAD packages (unlike most analytical approaches) and it can cope with the changes in CAD model topology and face labeling. Use of the proposed method allows computation of parametric sensitivities using adjoint data at a computational cost which scales with the number of objective functions being considered, while it is essentially independent of the number of design variables. The gradient computation is demonstrated on test cases for a Nozzle Guide Vane (NGV) model and a Turbine Rotor Blade model. The results are validated against finite difference values and good agreement is shown. This gradient information can be passed to an optimization algorithm, which will use it to update the CAD model parameters.

Aerodynamic optimization using Adjoint methods and parametric CAD models

This paper describes an implementation of a method capable of integrating parametric, feature based, CAD models based on commercial software (CATIA) with the SU2 software framework. To exploit the adjoint based methods for aerodynamic optimisation within the SU2, a formulation to obtain geometric sensitivities directly from the commercial CAD parameterisation is introduced, enabling the calculation of gradients with respect to CAD based design variables. To assess the accuracy and efficiency of the alternative approach, two aerodynamic optimisation problems are investigated: an inviscid, 3D, problem with multiple constraints, and a 2D high-lift aerofoil, viscous problem without any constraints. Initial results show the new parameterisation obtaining reliable optimums, with similar levels of performance of the software native parameterisations. In the final paper, details of computing CAD sensitivities will be provided, including accuracy as well as linking geometric sensitivities to aerodynamic objective functions and constraints; the impact in the robustness of the overall method will be assessed and alternative parameterisations will be included.

Effect of web holes on web crippling strength of cold-formed steel channel sections under end-one-flange loading condition - Part II: Parametric study and proposed design equations

A parametric study of cold-formed steel sections with web openings subjected to web crippling under end-one-flange (EOF) loading condition is undertaken, using finite element analysis, to investigate the effects of web holes and cross-section sizes. The holes are located either centred above the bearing plates or with a horizontal clear distance to the near edge of the bearing plates. It was demonstrated that the main factors influencing the web crippling strength are the ratio of the hole depth to the depth of the web, the ratio of the length of bearing plates to the flat depth of the web and the location of the holes as defined by the distance of the hole from the edge of the bearing plate divided by the flat depth of web. In this study, design recommendations in the form of web crippling strength reduction factor equations are proposed, which are conservative when compared with the experimental and finite element results.