Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

A Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification Method for Rapid Direct Detection and Differentiation of Non-pathogenic and Verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Beef and Bovine Faeces

The aim of this study was to develop a multiplex loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method capable of detecting Escherichia coli generally and verocytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) specifically in beef and bovine faeces. The LAMP assay developed was highly specific (100%) and able to distinguish between E. coli and VTEC based on the amplification of the phoA, and stx1 and/or stx2 genes, respectively. In the absence of an enrichment step, the limit of detection 50% (LOD50) of the LAMP assay was determined to be 2.83, 3.17 and 2.83-3.17 log CFU/g for E. coli with phoA, stx1 and stx2 genes, respectively, when artificially inoculated minced beef and bovine faeces were tested. The LAMP calibration curves generated with pure cultures, and spiked beef and faeces, suggested that the assay had good quantification capability. Validation of the assay, performed using retail beef and bovine faeces samples, demonstrated good correlation between counts obtained by the LAMP assay and by a conventional culture method, but suggested the possibility of false negative LAMP results for 12.5-14.7% of samples tested. The multiplex LAMP assay developed potentially represents a rapid alternative to culture for monitoring E.coli levels in beef or faeces and it would provide additional information on the presence of VTEC. However, some further optimisation is needed to improve detection sensitivity.