On the complexity of solving polytree-shaped limited memory influence diagrams with binary variables

Influence diagrams are intuitive and concise representations of structured decision problems. When the problem is non-Markovian, an optimal strategy can be exponentially large in the size of the diagram. We can avoid the inherent intractability by constraining the size of admissible strategies, giving rise to limited memory influence diagrams. A valuable question is then how small do strategies need to be to enable efficient optimal planning. Arguably, the smallest strategies one can conceive simply prescribe an action for each time step, without considering past decisions or observations. Previous work has shown that finding such optimal strategies even for polytree-shaped diagrams with ternary variables and a single value node is NP-hard, but the case of binary variables was left open. In this paper we address such a case, by first noting that optimal strategies can be obtained in polynomial time for polytree-shaped diagrams with binary variables and a single value node. We then show that the same problem is NP-hard if the diagram has multiple value nodes. These two results close the fixed-parameter complexity analysis of optimal strategy selection in influence diagrams parametrized by the shape of the diagram, the number of value nodes and the maximum variable cardinality.

On the Complexity of Strong and Epistemic Credal Networks

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values on a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The result of inferences with such models depends on the irrelevance/independence concept adopted. In this paper, we study the computational complexity of inferences under the concepts of epistemic irrelevance and strong independence. We strengthen complexity results by showing that inferences with strong independence are NP-hard even in credal trees with ternary variables, which indicates that tractable algorithms, including the existing one for epistemic trees, cannot be used for strong independence. We prove that the polynomial time of inferences in credal trees under epistemic irrelevance is not likely to extend to more general models, because the problem becomes NP-hard even in simple polytrees. These results draw a definite line between networks with efficient inferences and those where inferences are hard, and close several open questions regarding the computational complexity of such models.

Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Generalized loopy 2U: A new algorithm for approximate inference in credal networks

Credal networks generalize Bayesian networks by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal networks are considerably more expressive than Bayesian networks, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal networks. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal networks: that any credal network can be equivalently reformulated as a credal network with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal network is then updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal networks. Overall, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal networks, obtaining a scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences with respect to other state-of-the-art algorithms is evaluated by extensive numerical tests.

New Complexity Results for MAP in Bayesian Networks

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. It is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure), which extends previous complexity results. Furthermore, a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP in networks with bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable is developed. Approximation schemes were thought to be impossible, but here it is shown otherwise under the assumptions just mentioned, which are adopted in most applications.

Solving Limited Memory Influence Diagrams

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that the problem is NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has small treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, but that a fully polynomial time approximation scheme exists for these cases. Moreover, we show that the bound on the number of states is a necessary condition for any efficient approximation scheme.

The Complexity of Approximately Solving Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams allow for intuitive and yet precise description of complex situations involving decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, most of the problems described by influence diagrams are hard to solve. In this paper we discuss the complexity of approximately solving influence diagrams. We do not assume no-forgetting or regularity, which makes the class of problems we address very broad. Remarkably, we show that when both the treewidth and the cardinality of the variables are bounded the problem admits a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme.

New Results for the MAP Problem in Bayesian Networks

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. First, it is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure). Such proofs extend previous complexity results for the problem. Inapproximability results are also derived in the case of trees if the number of states per variable is not bounded. Although the problem is shown to be hard and inapproximable even in very simple scenarios, a new exact algorithm is described that is empirically fast in networks of bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable. The same algorithm is used as basis of a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP under such assumptions. Approximation schemes were generally thought to be impossible for this problem, but we show otherwise for classes of networks that are important in practice. The algorithms are extensively tested using some well-known networks as well as random generated cases to show their effectiveness.

Generalized Loopy 2U: A New Algorithm for Approximate Inference in Credal Networks

Credal nets generalize Bayesian nets by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal nets are considerably more expressive than Bayesian nets, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal nets. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal nets: that any credal net can be equivalently reformulated as a credal net with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal net is updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal nets. Thus, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal nets, obtaining an accurate and scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences is evaluated by empirical tests.

Modelling the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete using support vector machine approach

The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to investigate the feasibility using support vector machines (SVM) for the prediction of the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete. The radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial kernels were used to predict these properties as a function of the content of mix components. The fresh properties were assessed with the slump flow, T50, T60, V-funnel time, Orimet time, and blocking ratio (L-box). The retention of these tests was also measured at 30 and 60 min after adding the first water. The water dosage varied from 188 to 208 L/m3, the dosage of superplasticiser (SP) from 3.8 to 5.8 kg/m3, and the volume of coarse aggregates from 220 to 360 L/m3. In total, twenty mixes were used to measure the fresh state properties with different mixture compositions. RBF kernel was more accurate compared to polynomial kernel based support vector machines with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 26.9 (correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.974) for slump flow prediction, a RMSE of 0.55 (R2 = 0.910) for T50 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 1.71 (R2 = 0.812) for T60 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 0.1517 (R2 = 0.990) for V-funnel time prediction, a RMSE of 3.99 (R2 = 0.976) for Orimet time prediction, and a RMSE of 0.042 (R2 = 0.988) for L-box ratio prediction, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the dosage of cement and limestone powder, the water content, the volumes of coarse aggregate and sand, the dosage of SP and the testing time on the predicted test responses. The analysis indicates that the proposed SVM RBF model can gain a high precision, which provides an alternative method for predicting the fresh properties of SCC.

Passive Intermodulation of Analog and Digital Signals on Transmission Lines with Distributed Nonlinearities: Modelling and Characterization

Passive intermodulation (PIM) often limits the performance of communication systems with analog and digitally-modulated signals and especially of systems supporting multiple carriers. Since the origins of the apparently multiple physical sources of nonlinearity causing PIM are not fully understood, the behavioral models are frequently used to describe the process of PIM generation. In this paper a polynomial model of memoryless nonlinearity is deduced from PIM measurements of a microstrip line with distributed nonlinearity with two-tone CW signals. The analytical model of nonlinearity is incorporated in Keysight Technology’s ADS simulator to evaluate the metrics of signal fidelity in the receive band for analog and digitally-modulated signals. PIM-induced distortion and cross-band interference with modulated signals are compared to those with two-tone CW signals. It is shown that conventional metrics can be applied to quantify the effect of distributed nonlinearities on signal fidelity. It is found that the two-tone CW test provides a worst-case estimate of cross-band interference for two-carrier modulated signals whereas with a three-carrier signal PIM interference in the receive band is noticeably overestimated. The simulated constellation diagrams for QPSK signals demonstrate that PIM interference exhibits the distinctive signatures of correlated distortion and this indicates that there are opportunities for mitigating PIM interference and that PIM interference cannot be treated as noise. One of the interesting results is that PIM distortion on a transmission line results in asymmetrical regrowth of output PIM interference for modulated signals.