Modified Information Criteria and Selection of Long Memory Time Series Models

The problem of model selection of a univariate long memory time series is investigated once a semi parametric estimator for the long memory parameter has been used. Standard information criteria are not consistent in this case. A Modified Information Criterion (MIC) that overcomes these difficulties is introduced and proofs that show its asymptotic validity are provided. The results are general and cover a wide range of short memory processes. Simulation evidence compares the new and existing methodologies and empirical applications in monthly inflation and daily realized volatility are presented.

"From Indomania to Indophobia":Thomas De Quincey's Providential Orientalism

Thomas De Quincey’s terrifying oriental nightmares, reported to sensational acclaim in his Confessions of an English Opium-Eater (1821), have become a touchstone of romantic imperialism in recent studies of the literature of the period (Leask 1991; Barrell 1992 et al). De Quincey’s collocation of “all creatures, birds, beasts, reptiles, all trees and plants, usages and appearances, that are found in all tropical regions” in the hypnagogic hallucinations that characterized what he called “the pains of opium” seems to anticipate neatly Said’s theory of orientalism, whereby the orient was supplied by the west with “a mentality, a genealogy, an atmosphere,” the attitudinal basis as he argues for the continuing march of imperialism from the late eighteenth century. Yet, as Thomas Trautmann (1997) has pointed out, orientalist scholarship based in India and led by the influential Asiatic Society of Bengal in the late eighteenth century was extremely enthusiastic about Indian classical antiquity. The early orientalist scholarship posited ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious links between Europe and India, while recognizing the greater antiquity of Indian civilization. This favourable attitude (which Trautmann calls “Indomania”) was overtaken in the nineteenth century by disavowal of that scholarship and repugnance (which he calls “Indophobia”), influenced by utilitarian and evangelical attitudes to colonialism. De Quincey’s lifespan covers this crucial period of change. My paper examines his evangelical upbringing and interest in biblical and orientalist scholarship to suggest his anxious investment in these modes of thinking. I will suggest that the bizarre orientalist fusions of his dreams can be better understood in the context of changing attitudes to the imperialism during the period. An examination of his work provides a far more dynamic understanding of the processes of orientalism than the binary model suggested by Said. The transformation implied from imperial scholarship to governance, I will suggest, is not irrelevant to a world which continues to pull apart on various grounds of race and ethnicity, and reflects on our own role in the academy today.

GIANT LOBES OF CENTAURUS A RADIO GALAXY OBSERVED WITH THE SUZAKU X-RAY SATELLITE

We report on Suzaku observations of selected regions within the southern giant lobe of the radio galaxy Centaurus A. In our analysis we focus on distinct X-ray features detected with the X-ray Imaging Spectrometer within the range 0.5-10 keV, some of which are likely associated with fine structure of the lobe revealed by recent high-quality radio intensity and polarization maps. With the available photon statistics, we find that the spectral properties of the detected X-ray features are equally consistent with thermal emission from hot gas with temperatures kT > 1 keV, or with a power-law radiation continuum characterized by photon indices Gamma similar to 2.0 +/- 0.5. However, the plasma parameters implied by these different models favor a synchrotron origin for the analyzed X-ray spots, indicating that a very efficient acceleration of electrons up to greater than or similar to 10 TeV energies is taking place within the giant structure of Centaurus A, albeit only in isolated and compact regions associated with extended and highly polarized radio filaments. We also present a detailed analysis of the diffuse X-ray emission filling the whole field of view of the instrument, resulting in a tentative detection of a soft excess component best fitted by a thermal model with a temperature of kT similar to 0.5 keV. The exact origin of the observed excess remains uncertain, although energetic considerations point to thermal gas filling the bulk of the volume of the lobe and mixed with the non-thermal plasma, rather than to the alternative scenario involving a condensation of the hot intergalactic medium around the edges of the expanding radio structure. If correct, this would be the first detection of the thermal content of the extended lobes of a radio galaxy in X-rays. The corresponding number density of the thermal gas in such a case is n(g) similar to 10(-4) cm(-3), while its pressure appears to be in almost exact equipartition with the volume-averaged non-thermal pressure provided by the radio-emitting electrons and the lobes' magnetic field. A prominent large-scale fluctuation of the Galactic foreground emission, resulting in excess foreground X-ray emission aligned with the lobe, cannot be ruled out. Although tentative, our findings potentially imply that the structure of the extended lobes in active galaxies is likely to be highly inhomogeneous and non-uniform, with magnetic reconnection and turbulent acceleration processes continuously converting magnetic energy to internal energy of the plasma particles, leading to possibly significant spatial and temporal variations in the plasma beta parameter around the volume-averaged equilibrium condition beta similar to 1.

Law, Politics and Financial Development: The Great Reversal of the U.K. Corporate Debt Market

This article examines the role of creditor protection in the development of the U.K. corporate bond market. This market grew rapidly in the late nineteenth century, but in the twentieth century it experienced a reversal, albeit with a short-lived post-1945 renaissance. Such was the extent of the reversal that the market from the 1970s onwards was smaller than it had been in 1870. We find that law does not explain the variation in the size of this market over time. Alternatively, our evidence suggests that inflation and taxation policies were major drivers of this market in the post-1945 era. Copyright © The Economic History Association 2013

Food miles or carbon emissions? Exploring labeling preference for food transport footprint with a stated choice study

The ecological footprint of food transport can be communicated using carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 label) or by providing information about both the length of time and the mileage travelled (food miles label). We use stated choice data to estimate conventional unobserved taste heterogeneity models and extend them to a specification that also addresses attribute nonattendance. The implied posterior distributions of the marginal willingness to pay values are compared graphically and are used in validation regressions. We find strong bimodality of taste distribution as the emerging feature, with different groups of subjects having low and high valuations for these labels. The best fitting model shows that CO2 and food miles valuations are much correlated. CO2 valuations can be high even for those respondents expressing low valuations for food miles. However, the reverse is not true. Taken together, the results suggest that consumers tend to value the CO2 label at least as much and sometimes more than the food miles label.

Determination of Spontaneous Mutation Frequencies in Measles Virus under Nonselective Conditions

There is a paradox between the remarkable genetic stability of measles virus (MV) in the field and the high mutation rates implied by the frequency of the appearance of monoclonal antibody escape mutants generated when the virus is pressured to revert in vitro (S. J. Schrag, P. A. Rota, and W. J. Bellini, J. Virol. 73: 51-54, 1999). We established a highly sensitive assay to determine frequencies of various categories of mutations in large populations of wild-type and laboratory-adapted MVs using recombinant viruses containing an additional transcription unit (ATU) encoding enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP). Single and double mutations were made in the fluorophore of EGFP to ablate fluorescence. The frequencies of reversion mutants in the population were determined by measuring the appearance of fluorescence indicating a revertant virus. This allows mutation rates to be measured under nonselective conditions, as phenotypic reversion to fluorescence requires only either a single-or a double-nucleotide change and amino acid substitution, which does not affect the length of the nonessential reporter protein expressed from the ATU. Mutation rates in MV are the same for wild-type and laboratory-adapted viruses, and they are an order of magnitude lower than the previous measurement assessed under selective conditions. The actual mutation rate for MV is approximately 1.8 x 10(-6) per base per replication event. Copyright © 2013, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

It's not that I don't care, I just don't care very much: confounding between attribute non-attendance and taste heterogeneity

With the growing interest in the topic of attribute non-attendance, there is now widespread use of latent class (LC) structures aimed at capturing such behaviour, across a number of different fields. Specifically, these studies rely on a confirmatory LC model, using two separate values for each coefficient, one of which is fixed to zero while the other is estimated, and then use the obtained class probabilities as an indication of the degree of attribute non-attendance. In the present paper, we argue that this approach is in fact misguided, and that the results are likely to be affected by confounding with regular taste heterogeneity. We contrast the confirmatory model with an exploratory LC structure in which the values in both classes are estimated. We also put forward a combined latent class mixed logit model (LC-MMNL) which allows jointly for attribute non-attendance and for continuous taste heterogeneity. Across three separate case studies, the exploratory LC model clearly rejects the confirmatory LC approach and suggests that rates of non-attendance may be much lower than what is suggested by the standard model, or even zero. The combined LC-MMNL model similarly produces significant improvements in model fit, along with substantial reductions in the implied rate of attribute non-attendance, in some cases even eliminating the phenomena across the sample population. Our results thus call for a reappraisal of the large body of recent work that has implied high rates of attribute non-attendance for some attributes. Finally, we also highlight a number of general issues with attribute non-attendance, in particular relating to the computation of willingness to pay measures.

Phosphorus Adsorption onto an Industrial Acidified Laterite By‒Product: Equilibrium and Thermodynamic Investigation

The present research investigates the uptake of phosphate ions from aqueous solutions using acidified laterite (ALS), a by-product from the production of ferric aluminium sulfate using laterite. Phosphate adsorption experiments were performed in batch systems to determine the amount of phosphate adsorbed as a function of solution pH, adsorbent dosage and thermodynamic parameters per fixed P concentration. Kinetic studies were also carried out to study the effect of adsorbent particle sizes. The maximum removal capacity of ALS observed at pH 5 was 3.68 mg P g^-1. It was found that as the adsorbent dosage increases, the equilibrium pH decreases, so an adsorbent dosage of 1.0 g L^-1 of ALS was selected. Adsorption capacity (q_m) calculated from the Langmuir isotherm was found to be 2.73 mg g^-1. Kinetic experimental data were mathematically well described using the pseudo first-order model over the full range of the adsorbent particle size. The adsorption reactions were endothermic, and the process of adsorption was favoured at high temperature; the ΔG and ΔH values implied that the main adsorption mechanism of P onto ALS is physisorption. The desorption studies indicated the need to consider a NaOH 0.1M solution as an optimal solution for practical regeneration applications.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

Radiosensitising Nanoparticles as Novel Cancer Therapeutics — Pipe Dream or Realistic Prospect?

The field of high atomic number nanoparticle radiosensitising agents is reviewed. After a brief discussion of the new mode of physicochemical action implied by irradiation of high atomic number nanoparticles embedded in biological systems, a series of exemplars are discussed. Silver-, gadolinium- and gold-based nanoparticles are discussed in order of increasing atomic number with functionalisation strategies being outlined. In vitro and in vivo evidence for radio-enhancement and the mechanisms attributed to the increased biological effect are discussed.

The P/2010 A2 Asteroid Collision Confirmed by Rosetta/OSIRIS Observation

The discovery of P/2010 A2 by the LINEAR survey in January 2010 revealed an object displaying a large trail of material similar in shape to a cometary tail although no central condensation or coma could be detected. The appearance of this object in an asteroidal orbit in the inner main belt attracted attention as a potential new member of the Main Belt Comets class (MBCs) but the discovery of a nucleus, with an estimated diameter of 120 m, around 1500 km away from the trail implied that the extended object we were seeing could be the debris trail from a recent collision rather than the tail of a comet. Due to the low inclination of its orbit, it is difficult to conclude about the nature of P/2010 A2 from Earth-based data only, as different scenarios lead to the same appearance in the orbital configuration at the times of observations. We present here another set of images, acquired from the unique viewing geometry provided by ESA's Rosetta spacecraft en route to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Albeit faint (22 magnitude), the object could be observed by the high-resolution camera OSIRIS. We used a Finson-Probstein model to simulate the shape of the trail, and estimate the time of emission and β parameter (ratio between solar radiation pressure and gravity) for the dust grains. Simulations were compared to the OSIRIS images and ground based observations acquired at NTT and Palomar telescopes. Thanks to the different phase angle provided by Rosetta, we could reduce the number of solutions to a unique model, leading to the conclusive demonstration that the trail is due to a single event rather than a period of cometary activity.

Measuring and modelling air mass flow rate in the injection stretch blow moulding process

The injection stretch blow moulding process involves the inflation and stretching of a hot preform into a mould to form bottles. A critical process variable and an essential input for process simulations is the rate of pressure increase within the preform during forming, which is regulated by an air flow restrictor valve. The paper describes a set of experiments for measuring the air flow rate within an industrial ISBM machine and the subsequent modelling of it with the FEA package ABAQUS. Two rigid containers were inserted into a Sidel SBO1 blow moulding machine and subjected to different supply pressures and air flow restrictor settings. The pressure and air temperature were recorded for each experiment enabling the mass flow rate of air to be determined along with an important machine characteristic known as the ‘dead volume’. The experimental setup was simulated within the commercial FEA package ABAQUS/Explicit using a combination of structural, fluid and fluid link elements that idealize the air flowing through an orifice behaving as an ideal gas under isothermal conditions. Results between experiment and simulation are compared and show a good correlation.

Correlates of food choice in unemployed young people: The role of demographic factors, self-efficacy, food involvement, food poverty and physical activity

Associations between socio-demographic and psychological factors and food choice patterns were explored in unemployed young people who constitute a vulnerable group at risk of poor dietary health. Volunteers (N = 168), male (n = 97) and female (n = 71), aged 15–25 years were recruited through United Kingdom (UK) community-based organisations serving young people not in education training or employment (NEET). Survey questionnaire enquired on food poverty, physical activity and measured responses to the Food Involvement Scale (FIS), Food Self-Efficacy Scale (FSS) and a 19-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). A path analysis was undertaken to explore associations between age, gender, food poverty, age at leaving school, food self-efficacy (FS-E), food involvement (FI) (kitchen; uninvolved; enjoyment), physical activity and the four food choice patterns (junk food; healthy; fast food; high fat). FS-E was strong in the model and increased with age. FS-E was positively associated with more
frequent choice of healthy food and less frequent junk or high fat food (having controlled for age, gender and age at leaving school). FI (kitchen and enjoyment) increased with age. Higher FI (kitchen) was associated with less frequent junk food and fast food choice. Being uninvolved with food was associated with
more frequent fast food choice. Those who left school after the age of 16 years reported more frequent physical activity. Of the indirect effects, younger individuals had lower FI (kitchen) which led to frequent junk and fast food choice. Females who were older had higher FI (enjoyment) which led to less frequent fast food choice. Those who had left school before the age of 16 had low food involvement (uninvolved) which led to frequent junk food choice. Multiple indices implied that data were a good fit to the model which indicated a need to enhance food self-efficacy and encourage food involvement in order to improve dietary health among these disadvantaged young people.

Professional Negligence, Solicitors: Recent Case Law, 2014

In preparation for this talk I have reviewed cases of interest in the High Courts and Courts of Appeal of England and Wales and Northern Ireland from the past two years or so on professional negligence and liability and principally relating to solicitors.

There are six topics of interest: the general duty of care demanded of solicitors in the carrying out of their professional obligations; whether there is a specific duty on a solicitor to warn or advise a client of any implied risk in, say, a commercial transaction; what is the scope of the duty on a solicitor to explain the content of or clauses in a legal document; a recent case of interest applying the White v Jones principle to a disappointed beneficiary seeking to make a claim against a solicitor who negligently prepared a will; the practical, limitation issue of how to pinpoint in a professional negligence claim when the damage was first sustained by the claimant; and finally some case law here and in England and Wales on the (costs) implications for solicitors relating to any failure to adhere to case management protocols or related court directions.

Uncovering BRCA1-regulated signalling pathways by microarray-based expression profiling

The introduction of microarray technology to the scientific and medical communities has dramatically changed the way in which we now address basic biomedical questions. Expression profiling using microarrays facilitates an experimental approach where alterations in the transcript level of entire transcriptomes can be simultaneously assayed in response to defined stimuli. We have used microarray analysis to identify downstream transcriptional targets of the BRCA1 (Breast Cancer 1) tumour-suppressor gene as a means of defining its function. BRCA1 has been implicated in the predisposition to early onset breast and ovarian cancer and while its exact function remains to be defined, roles in DNA repair, cell-cycle control and transcriptional regulation have been implied. In the current study we have generated cell lines with tetracycline-regulated, inducible expression of BRCA1 as a tool to identify genes, which might represent important effectors of BRCA1 function. Oligonucleotide array-based expression profiling identified a number of genes that were upregulated at various times following inducible expression of BRCA1 including the DNA damage-responsive gene GADD45 (Growth Arrest after DNA Damage). Identified targets were confirmed by Northern blot analysis and their functional significance as BRCA1 targets examined.