Estimating policy positions from political texts

The analysis of policy-based party;;competition will not make serious progress beyond the constraints of (a) the unitary actor assumption and (b) a static approach to analyzing party competition between elections until a method is available for deriving; reliable and valid time-series estimates of the policy positions of large numbers of political actors. Retrospective estimation of these positions;In past party systems will require a method for estimating policy positions from political texts.

Previous hand-coding content analysis schemes deal with policy emphasis rather than policy positions. We propose a new hand-coding scheme for policy positions, together with a new English language computer,coding scheme that is compatible with this. We apply both schemes; to party manifestos from Britain and Ireland in 1992 and 1997 and cross validate the resulting estimates with :those derived from quite independent expert surveys and with previous,manifesto analyses.

There is a high degree of cross validation between coding methods. including computer coding. This implies that it is indeed possible to use computer-coded content analysis to derive reliable and valid estimates of policy positions from political texts. This will allow vast Volumes of text to be coded, including texts generated by individuals and other internal party actors, allowing the empirical elaboration of dynamic rather than static models of party competition that move beyond the unitary actor assumption.

The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships

Species-area relationships (SAR) are fundamental in the understanding of biodiversity patterns and of critical importance for predicting species extinction risk worldwide. Despite the enormous attention given to SAR in the form of many individual analyses, little attempt has been made to synthesize these studies. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of 794 SAR, comprising a wide span of organisms, habitats and locations. We identified factors reflecting both pattern-based and dynamic approaches to SAR and tested whether these factors leave significant imprints on the slope and strength of SAR. Our analysis revealed that SAR are significantly affected by variables characterizing the sampling scheme, the spatial scale, and the types of organisms or habitats involved. We found that steeper SAR are generated at lower latitudes and by larger organisms. SAR varied significantly between nested and independent sampling schemes and between major ecosystem types, but not generally between the terrestrial and the aquatic realm. Both the fit and the slope of the SAR were scale-dependent. We conclude that factors dynamically regulating species richness at different spatial scales strongly affect the shape of SAR. We highlight important consequences of this systematic variation in SAR for ecological theory, conservation management and extinction risk predictions.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.

Population genetic analyses reveal distinct geographical blooms of the jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus (Scyhpozoa)

Understanding the spatial integrity and connectivity of jellyfish blooms is important for ecologists and coastal stakeholders alike. Previous studies have shown that the distribution of jellyfish blooms can display a marked consistency in space and time, suggesting that such patterns cannot be attributed to passive processes alone. In the present study, we used a combination of microsatellite markers and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I sequences to investigate genetic structuring of the scyphozoan jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus in the Irish and Celtic Seas. The mitochondrial data indicated far higher levels of population differentiation than the microsatellites: ΦST[MT] = 0.300 vs. ΦST[NUC] = 0.013. Simulation studies indicated that the low levels of nuclear differentiation were not the result of limited power because of low levels of polymorphism. These findings, supported by palaeodistribution modelling and mismatch distribution analysis, are consistent with expansion of R. octopus from a single, limited refugium after the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by subsequent isolation, and that the discrepancy between the mitochondrial and nuclear markers is a result of the nuclear loci taking longer to reach mutation–drift equilibrium following the expansion as a result of their four-fold larger effective population size. The populations studied are probably not well connected via gene flow, and thus genetically as well as geographically distinct, although our findings also highlight the need to use a combination of organellar and nuclear markers to enable a more complete understanding of population demography and structure, particularly for species with large effective population sizes.

Phylogeographical analyses of shellfish viruses: inferring a geographical origin for ostreid herpesviruses OsHV-1 (Malacoherpesviridae)

Mortality episodes have regularly been affecting the shellfish industry throughout its history. Some of these mortalities, especially in the oyster industry, have been attributed to herpesviruses. Purification of viral particles and molecular characterization have led to the development of routine monitoring, as well as improved taxonomic classification. Ostreid herpesviruses (Malacoherpesviridae), mostly affecting Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas, have been sporadically recorded in the French oyster industry since the early 1990s (OsHV-1 'reference'). From 2008, a new variant of ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1 mu Var) has emerged and seriously impacted oyster production in France and other European countries. Consequently, the presence of ostreid herpesviruses has been monitored in different oyster producing areas around the world. The present study compiles molecular data that are available from survey efforts and takes a biogeographical approach, in order to infer an origin for ostreid herpesviruses. The highest genotype diversity was found in East Asia, despite a lower survey effort in that area than in Europe. Genotype network analyses show that both populations of ostreid herpesviruses present in Europe (OsHV-1 'reference' and OsHV-1 mu Var) are closely related to genotypes recorded in Asia. Moreover, ostreid herpesviruses have been detected in wild and symptom-free populations of various Asian native Crassostrea species. In the rest of the world, ostreid herpesvirus genotypes were recorded from cultivated C. gigas, and mostly associated with mortality episodes. Results of this study are therefore highly suggestive of an Asian origin for these viruses, which can be pathogenic under farming conditions. It also highlights the risks of European stock improvements, by means of overseas shellfish imports.

Seasonal and geographical differences in aflatoxin exposures in Senegal

The aim of the study was to determine the geographical and seasonal variations in aflatoxin dietary exposure levels in adults from Senegal. A total of 168 adults (50% male) were recruited from three districts: Nioro du Rip (n=90), located in the Sudan Savannah agro-ecological zone where rainfall is sufficient for groundnut growth; Saint-Louis (n=40) and Mboro (n=38), located in the Sahel zone where groundnuts are produced under irrigated conditions. Diet information and samples were collected at groundnut harvest and post-harvest seasons. Plasma aflatoxin-albumin adducts (AF-alb) and total aflatoxin in household groundnut samples were measured by ELISA and a quantitative thin layer chromatography method, respectively. The blood AF-alb geometric mean was 45.7 pg/mg albumin (range 5.5-588.2 pg/mg). Nioro du Rip had a higher AF-alb level at harvest than Saint-Louis and Mboro (80.0 vs 15.6 and 33.3 pg/mg, P<0.001). Similar trends were observed at post-harvest (P<0.05). Seasonal trends were not consistent across the districts as Nioro du Rip had a higher AF-alb level at harvest than post-harvest (80.0 vs 58.6 pg/mg, P=0.026), whereas Saint-Louis had a higher level at post-harvest than harvest (25.6 vs 15.6 pg/mg, P=0.032). It is clear that aflatoxin exposure is prevalent in adults from Senegal and that season and geographical location are strong determinants of aflatoxin exposure.

Major and trace elements in milk and Halloumi cheese as markers for authentication of goat feeding regimes and geographical origin

Sixty samples of milk, Halloumi cheese and local grazing plants (i.e. shrubs) were collected over a year from dairy farms located on three different locations of Cyprus. Major and trace elements were quantified using inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). Milk and Halloumi cheese produced in different geographical locations presented significant differences in the concentration of some of the elements analysed. Principal component analysis showed grouping of samples according to the region of production for both milk and cheese samples. These findings show that the assay of elements can provide useful fingerprints for the characterisation of dairy products.

Geographical variation in inorganic arsenic in paddy field samples and commercial rice from the Iberian Peninsula

This study investigated total arsenic and arsenic speciation in rice using ion chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (IC-ICP-MS), covering the main rice-growing regions of the Iberian Peninsula in Europe. The main arsenic species found were inorganic and dimethylarsinic acid. Samples surveyed were soil, shoots and field-collected rice grain. From this information soil to plant arsenic transfer was investigated plus the distribution of arsenic in rice across the geographical regions of Spain and Portugal. Commercial polished rice was also obtained from each region and tested for arsenic speciation, showing a positive correlation with field-obtained rice grain. Commercial polished rice had the lowest i-As content in Andalucia, Murcia and Valencia while Extremadura had the highest concentrations. About 26% of commercial rice samples exceeded the permissible concentration
for infant food production as governed by the European Commission. Some cadmium data is also presented, available with ICP-MS analyses, and show low concentration in rice samples.

People and places: Understanding geographical accuracy in administrative data from the census and healthcare systems

Administrative systems such as health care registration are of increasing importance in providing information for statistical, research, and policy purposes. There is thus a pressing need to understand better the detailed relationship between population characteristics as recorded in such systems and conventional censuses. This paper explores these issues using the unique Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS). It takes the 2001 Census enumeration as a benchmark and analyses the social, demographic and spatial patterns of mismatch with the health register at individual level. Descriptive comparison is followed by multivariate and multilevel analyses which show that approximately 25% of individuals are reported to be in different addresses and that age, rurality, education, and housing type are all important factors. This level of mismatch appears to be maintained over time, as earlier migrants who update their address details are replaced by others who have not yet done so. In some cases, apparent mismatches seem likely to reflect complex multi-address living arrangements rather than data error.