The p-hub Model with Hub-catchment Areas, Existing Hubs, and Simulation: A Case Study of Serbian Intermodal Terminals

This paper addresses the problem of optimally locating intermodal freight terminals in Serbia. To solve this problem and determine the effects of the resulting scenarios, two modeling approaches were combined. The first approach is based on multiple-assignment hub-network design, and the second is based on simulation. The multiple-assignment p-hub network location model was used to determine the optimal location of intermodal terminals. Simulation was used as a tool to estimate intermodal transport flow volumes, due to the unreliability and unavailability of specific statistical data, and as a method for quantitatively analyzing the economic, time, and environmental effects of different scenarios of intermodal terminal development. The results presented here represent a summary, with some extension, of the research realized in the IMOD-X project (Intermodal Solutions for Competitive Transport in Serbia).

Lovastatin biosynthesis depends on the carbon-nitrogen proportion: model development and controller design

Lovastatin biosynthesis depends on the relative concentrations of dissolved oxygen and the carbon and nitrogen resources. An elucidation of the underlying relationship would facilitate the derivation of a controller for the improvement of lovastatin yield in bioprocesses. To achieve this goal, batch submerged cultivation experiments of lovastatin production by Aspergillus flavipus BICC 5174, using both lactose and glucose as carbon sources, were performed in a 7 liter bioreactor and the data used to determine how the relative concentrations of lactose, glucose, glutamine and oxygen affected lovastatin yield. A model was developed based on these results and its prediction was validated using an independent set of batch data obtained from a 15-liter bioreactor using five statistical measures, including the Willmott index of agreement. A nonlinear controller was designed considering that dissolved oxygen and lactose concentrations could be measured online, and using the lactose feed rate and airflow rate as process inputs. Simulation experiments were performed to demonstrate that a practical implementation of the nonlinear controller would result in satisfactory outcomes. This is the first model that correlates lovastatin biosynthesis to carbon-nitrogen proportion and possesses a structure suitable for implementing a strategy for controlling lovastatin production.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Criticality, factorization, and long-range correlations in the anisotropic XY model

We study the long-range quantum correlations in the anisotropic XY model. By first examining the thermodynamic limit, we show that employing the quantum discord as a figure of merit allows one to capture the main features of the model at zero temperature. Furthermore, by considering suitably large site separations we find that these correlations obey a simple scaling behavior for finite temperatures, allowing for efficient estimation of the critical point. We also address ground-state factorization of this model by explicitly considering finite-size systems, showing its relation to the energy spectrum and explaining the persistence of the phenomenon at finite temperatures. Finally, we compute the fidelity between finite and infinite systems in order to show that remarkably small system sizes can closely approximate the thermodynamic limit.

A statistical characterization of shadowed device-to-device communications in an indoor environment

This paper presents the results of a measurement campaign aimed at characterizing and modeling the indoor radio channel between two hypothetical cellular handsets. The device-to-device channel measurements were made at 868 MHz and investigated a number of different everyday scenarios such as the devices being held at the user's heads, placed in a pocket and one of the devices placed on a desktop. The recently proposed shadowed k-μ fading model was used to characterize these channels and was shown to provide a good description of the measured data. It was also evident from the experiments, that the device-to-device communications channel is susceptible to shadowing caused by the human body.

Development of a novel continuous statistical modelling technique for detecting the adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with hazelnut oil by using spectroscopic data

The adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with other vegetable oils is a certain problem with economic and health consequences. Current official methods have been proved insufficient to detect such adulterations. One of the most concerning and undetectable adulterations with other vegetable oils is the addition of hazelnut oil. The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique able to model oil mixtures as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution. This final solution attempts to identify hazelnut oil adulterants in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. The proposed Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. This methodology has potential to be extended to other mixtures and adulterations of food products. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold lets the better visualization of this examined classification problem and facilitates a more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants.

Toward Characterization Of The Type IIP Supernova Progenitor Population: A Statistical Sample Of Light Curves From Pan-STARRS1

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multi-band imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SN): systematic light curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 years and classified using both spectroscopy and machine learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multi-band evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a sub-population of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as "Type IIL" SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for supernova cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties, are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multi-band light curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide field transient searches.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Physical Activity Behavior in Individuals With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model has been successful in promoting health behavior change in general and clinical populations. However, there is little knowledge about the application of the transtheoretical model to explain physical activity behavior in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. The aim was to examine patterns of (1) physical activity and (2) mediators of behavior change (self-efficacy, decisional balance, and processes of change) across stages of change in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Fifty-five subjects with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (mean age ± SD = 63 ± 10 y) had physical activity assessed over 7 d using an accelerometer. Each component of the transtheoretical model was assessed using validated questionnaires. Subjects were divided into groups depending on stage of change: Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation; n = 10), Group 2 (preparation; n = 20), and Group 3 (action and maintenance; n = 25). Statistical analyses included one-way analysis of variance and Tukey-Kramer post hoc tests.

RESULTS: Physical activity variables were significantly (P < .05) higher in Group 3 (action and maintenance) compared with Group 2 (preparation) and Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation). For self-efficacy, there were no significant differences between groups for mean scores (P = .14). Decisional balance cons (barriers to being physically active) were significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .032). For processes of change, substituting alternatives (substituting inactive options for active options) was significantly higher in Group 3 versus Group 1 (P = .01), and enlisting social support (seeking out social support to increase and maintain physical activity) was significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of physical activity across stages of change is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the transtheoretical model. Constructs of the transtheoretical model that appear to be important at different stages of change include decisional balance cons, substituting alternatives, and enlisting social support. This study provides support to explore transtheoretical model-based physical activity interventions in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

Statistical data correction for unreliable memories

In this paper, we introduce a statistical data-correction framework that aims at improving the DSP system performance in presence of unreliable memories. The proposed signal processing framework implements best-effort error mitigation for signals that are corrupted by defects in unreliable storage arrays using a statistical correction function extracted from the signal statistics, a data-corruption model, and an application-specific cost function. An application example to communication systems demonstrates the efficacy of the proposed approach.

A Statistical Characterization of Shadowed Fading in Indoor Off-Body Communications Channels At 5.8 GHz

This paper investigates the characteristics of the shadowed fading observed in off-body communications channels at 5.8 GHz using the κ-μ / gamma composite fading model. Realistic measurements have been conducted considering four individual scenarios namely line of sight (LOS) and non-LOS (NLOS) walking, rotation and random movements within an indoor laboratory environment. It is shown that the κ-μ / gamma composite fading model provides a better fit to the fading observed in off-body communications channels compared to the conventional Nakagami-m and Rician fading models.

The κ− μ / Inverse Gamma Fading Model

Statistical distributions have been extensively used in modeling fading effects in conventional and modern wireless communications. In the present work, we propose a novel κ − µ composite shadowed fading model, which is based on the valid assumption that the mean signal power follows the inverse gamma distribution instead of the lognormal or commonly used gamma distributions. This distribution has a simple relationship with the gamma distribution, but most importantly, its semi heavy-tailed characteristics constitute it suitable for applications relating to modeling of shadowed fading. Furthermore, the derived probability density function of the κ − µ / inverse gamma composite distribution admits a rather simple algebraic representation that renders it convenient to handle both analytically and numerically. The validity and utility of this fading model are demonstrated by means of modeling the fading effects encountered in body centric communications channels, which have been known to be susceptible to the shadowing effect. To this end, extensive comparisons are provided between theoretical and respective real-time measurement results. It is shown that these comparisons exhibit accurate fitting of the new model for various measurement set ups that correspond to realistic communication scenarios.

Weakly nonlinear ion-acoustic excitations in a relativistic model for dense quantum plasma

The dynamics of linear and nonlinear ionic-scale electrostatic excitations propagating in a magnetized relativistic quantum plasma is studied. A quantum-hydrodynamic model is adopted and degenerate statistics for the electrons is taken into account. The dispersion properties of linear ion acoustic waves are examined in detail. A modified characteristic charge screening length and "sound speed" are introduced, for relativistic quantum plasmas. By employing the reductive perturbation technique, a Zakharov-Kuznetzov-type equation is derived. Using the small-k expansion method, the stability profile of weakly nonlinear slightly supersonic electrostatic pulses is also discussed. The effect of electron degeneracy on the basic characteristics of electrostatic excitations is investigated. The entire analysis is valid in a three-dimensional as well as in two-dimensional geometry. A brief discussion of possible applications in laboratory and space plasmas is included.

Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures

Recently there has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and architectural complexity). Once one has learned a model based on their devised method, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Unfortunately, the standard tests used for this purpose are not able to jointly consider performance measures. The aim of this paper is to resolve this issue by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood-ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameter of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Real data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers is used to show a practical application of our tests.