Predictions of large events on a spring-block model

We study the predictability of a theoretical model for earthquakes, using a pattern recognition algorithm similar to the CN and M8 algorithms known in seismology. The model, which is a stochastic spring-block model with both global correlation and local interaction, becomes more predictable as the strength of the global correlation or the local interaction is increased.

The spatial distribution of Holocene cryptotephras in north-west Europe since 7 ka: implications for understanding ash fall events from Icelandic eruptions

We present distribution maps for all cryptotephras (distal volcanic ash layers) younger than 7 ka that have been reported from three or more lakes or peatlands in north-west Europe. All but one of the tephras originates from Iceland; the exception has been attributed to Jan Mayen. We find strong spatial patterning in tephra occurrence at the landscape scale; most, but not all of the tephra occurrences are significantly spatially clustered, which likely reflects atmospheric and weather patterns at the time of the eruptions. Contrary to expectations based on atmospheric modelling studies, tephras appear to be at least as abundant in Ireland and northern Scotland as in Scandinavia. Rhyolitic and other felsic tephras occur in lakes and peatlands throughout the study region, but andesitic and basaltic tephras are largely restricted to lake sites in the Faroe Islands and Ireland. Explanations of some of these patterns will require further research on the effects of different methodologies for locating and characterizing cryptotephras. These new maps will help to guide future investigations in tephrochronology and volcanic hazard analysis.

Development of a risk model for adverse drug events in the elderly

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for adverse drug events (ADEs) in elderly patients. Socio-demographic and medical data were collected from chart reviews, computerised information and a patient interview, for a population of 929 elderly patients (aged greater than or equal to 65 years) whose admission to the Waveney/B raid Valley Hospital in Northern Ireland was not scheduled. A further 204 patients formed a validation group. An ADE score was assigned to each patient using a modified Naranjo algorithm scoring system. The ADE scores ranged from 0 to 8. For the purposes of developing a risk model, scores of 4 or more were considered to constitute a high risk of an ADE.

Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - I. Type Ibn (SN 2006jc-like) events

We present new spectroscopic and photometric data of the Type Ibn supernovae 2006jc, 2000er and 2002ao. We discuss the general properties of this recently proposed supernova family, which also includes SN 1999cq. The early-time monitoring of SN 2000er traces the evolution of this class of objects during the first few days after the shock breakout. An overall similarity in the photometric and spectroscopic evolution is found among the members of this group, which would be unexpected if the energy in these core-collapse events was dominated by the interaction between supernova ejecta and circumstellar medium. Type Ibn supernovae appear to be rather normal Type Ib/c supernova explosions which occur within a He-rich circumstellar environment. SNe Ibn are therefore likely produced by the explosion of Wolf-Rayet progenitors still embedded in the He-rich material lost by the star in recent mass-loss episodes, which resemble known luminous blue variable eruptions. The evolved Wolf-Rayet star could either result from the evolution of a very massive star or be the more evolved member of a massive binary system. We also suggest that there are a number of arguments in favour of a Type Ibn classification for the historical SN 1885A (S-Andromedae), previously considered as an anomalous Type la event with some resemblance to SN 1991bg.

The POINT-AGAPE survey - II. An unrestricted search for microlensing events towards M31

An automated search is carried out for microlensing events using a catalogue of 44 554 variable superpixel light curves derived from our 3-yr monitoring programme of M31. Each step of our candidate selection is objective and reproducible by a computer. Our search is unrestricted, in the sense that it has no explicit time-scale cut. So, it must overcome the awkward problem of distinguishing long time-scale microlensing events from long-period stellar variables.

Divine Events

I argue for a certain conception of events according to which they are essentially extended and temporal entities (contra Leftow), and then go on to argue that God is necessarily the subject of such events (even before creation--a claim which is particularly controversial). Together these claims entail that God is necessarily temporal.

Events: Temporal and Eternal (in preparation)

This monograph develops a theory of events which provides the foundation for a plausible and coherent account of God’s relation to time, and which has independent appeal (independent, that is, of theological considerations). The book is divided into three parts. The first part involves an investigation of those fundamental aspects of time which have important implications for the nature of events, such as whether time is substantival or relational, and whether time is continuous, dense, or discrete. This part also includes a chapter on how these issues relate to different interpretations of the special theory of relativity. The second part involves a defense of the fundamentality of events, and the development of a theory of events in time. The third part considers ways in which we might plausibly conceive of events as eternal entities. This involves an investigation of different ways of characterizing divine eternity, and then an analysis of the possible relations these ways bear to the antecedently developed theory of temporal events. The thought here is that there are certain characteristics of temporal events which can be assimilated to eternity, and that by evaluating the extent to which different theories of divine eternity allow for this assimilation, we will be able to determine which of those theories is most plausible, and therefore which conception of God’s relation to time is most plausible. The basis of this evaluation will be the theory’s ability to coherently account for God’s knowledge of, and interaction with, the created temporal world. One specific issue here is how to account for God’s knowledge of the future free actions of humans (an issue that I address in 'Eternity, Knowledge, and Freedom'), but there are many other difficulties associated with God’s relation to time, such as God’s creation of contingent time, God’s knowledge of what is happening now, God’s dialogue with humans, and God’s causally interacting with the temporal world in general. A successful theory of eternal events, and, in particular, divine events, will provide a framework for dealing with these difficulties.

I have not yet sough a publisher for this work, but intend to do so in 2013, with a target publication date of 2014.

Telmisartan to prevent recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events

Prolonged lowering of blood pressure after a stroke reduces the risk of recurrent stroke. In addition, inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system in high-risk patients reduces the rate of subsequent cardiovascular events, including stroke. However, the effect of lowering of blood pressure with a renin-angiotensin system inhibitor soon after a stroke has not been clearly established. We evaluated the effects of therapy with an angiotensin-receptor blocker, telmisartan, initiated early after a stroke.

Rosuvastatin and cardiovascular events in patients undergoing hemodialysis

Statins reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, a benefit of statins in such patients who are undergoing hemodialysis has not been proved.

Low temperature conditions in building sandstone: the role of extreme events in temperate environments

Data on rock temperatures has previously been collected to characterise typical diurnal regimes, and more recently to describe short-term variability in extreme locations. However, there is also the case that little is understood concerning the impact of extreme events in otherwise temperate environments. Internal stone temperatures (5?cm) collected during the atypical cold extreme experienced, throughout the UK, in December 2010 show a difference between ambient air temperatures and aspect-related thermal differences, particularly concerning temperature lows and the influence of radiative heating. In this case, debris release was not visible; however, laboratory simulations have shown that under such conditions, surface loss does not necessarily negate the occurrence of internal stone modifications. This preparatory sequence of change demonstrates that surface loss is not the result of one process, but rather many operating over time to sufficiently decrease stone strength to facilitate obvious damage.