A Continuous Time Markov Chain Based Sequential Analytical Approach for Composite Power System Reliability Assessment

This paper proposes a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) based sequential analytical approach for composite generation and transmission systems reliability assessment. The basic idea is to construct a CTMC model for the composite system. Based on this model, sequential analyses are performed. Various kinds of reliability indices can be obtained, including expectation, variance, frequency, duration and probability distribution. In order to reduce the dimension of the state space, traditional CTMC modeling approach is modified by merging all high order contingencies into a single state, which can be calculated by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Then a state mergence technique is developed to integrate all normal states to further reduce the dimension of the CTMC model. Moreover, a time discretization method is presented for the CTMC model calculation. Case studies are performed on the RBTS and a modified IEEE 300-bus test system. The results indicate that sequential reliability assessment can be performed by the proposed approach. Comparing with the traditional sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, the proposed method is more efficient, especially in small scale or very reliable power systems.

The Size Distribution of US Banks and Credit Unions

This study examines the firm size distribution of US banks and credit unions. A truncated lognormal distribution describes the size distribution, measured using assets data, of a large population of small, community-based commercial banks. The size distribution of a smaller but increasingly dominant cohort of large banks, which operate a high-volume low-cost retail banking model, exhibits power-law behaviour. There is a progressive increase in skewness over time, and Zipf’s Law is rejected as a descriptor of the size distribution in the upper tail. By contrast, the asset size distribution of the population of credit unions conforms closely to the lognormal distribution.

Long-Term Economic Model for Allocation of FACTS Devices in Restructured Power System Integrated Wind Generation

This study proposes an approach to optimally allocate multiple types of flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices in market-based power systems with wind generation. The main objective is to maximise profit by minimising device investment cost, and the system's operating cost considering both normal conditions and possible contingencies. The proposed method accurately evaluates the long-term costs and benefits gained by FACTS devices (FDs) installation to solve a large-scale optimisation problem. The objective implies maximising social welfare as well as minimising compensations paid for generation re-scheduling and load shedding. Many technical operation constraints and uncertainties are included in problem formulation. The overall problem is solved using both particle swarm optimisations for attaining optimal FDs allocation as main problem and optimal power flow as sub-optimisation problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on modified IEEE 14-bus test system and IEEE 118-bus test system.

Distribution and visual impact of postoperative refractive error after cataract surgery in rural China: study of cataract outcomes and up-take of services report 4.

PURPOSE: To model the possible impact of using average-power intraocular lenses (IOLs) and evaluate the postoperative refractive error in patients having cataract surgery in rural China.SETTING: Rural Guangdong, China.METHODS: Patients having cataract surgery by local surgeons were examined and visual function was assessed 10 to 14 months after surgery. Subjective refraction at near and distance was performed bilaterally by an ophthalmologist. Patients had a target refraction of -0.50 diopter (D) based on ocular biometry.RESULTS: Of the 313 eligible patients, 242 (77%) could be contacted and 176 (74% of contacted patients, 56% overall) were examined. Examined patients had a mean age of 69.4 +/- 10.5 years. Of the 211 operated eyes, 73.2% were within +/-1.0 D of the target refraction after surgery. The best presenting distance vision was in patients within +/-1.0 D of plano and the best presenting near vision, in those with mild myopia (<-1.0 D to > or =2.0 D) (P= .005). However, patients with hyperopia (>+1.0 D) reported significantly better adjusted visual function than those with emmetropia or myopia (<-1.0 D). When the predicted use of an average-power IOL (median +21.5 D) was modeled, predicted visual acuity was significantly reduced (P= .001); however, predicted visual function was not significantly altered (P>.3).CONCLUSIONS: Accurate selection of postoperative refractive error was achieved by local surgeons in this rural area. Based on visual function results, aiming for mild postoperative myopia may not be suitable in this setting. Implanting average-power IOLs significantly reduced postoperative presenting vision, but not visual function.