Smart meter devices and the effect of feedback on residential electricity consumption: Evidence from a natural experiment in Northern Ireland

Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with advanced meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and payment plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of 11-17%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. The advanced metering program delivers reasonably cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, even under the most conservative usage reduction scenarios.

Development and application of a multiple linear regression model to consider the impact of weekly waste container capacity on the yield from kerbside recycling programmes

The paper describes the development and application of a multiple linear regression model to identify how the key elements of waste and recycling infrastructure, namely container capacity and frequency of collection affect the yield from municipal kerbside recycling programmes. The overall aim of the research was to gain an understanding of the factors affecting the yield from municipal kerbside recycling programmes in Scotland. The study isolates the principal kerbside collection service offered by 32 councils across Scotland, eliminating those recycling programmes associated with flatted properties or multi occupancies. The results of a regression analysis model has identified three principal factors which explain 80% of the variability in the average yield of the principal dry recyclate services: weekly residual waste capacity, number of materials collected and the weekly recycling capacity. The use of the model has been evaluated and recommendations made on ongoing methodological development and the use of the results in informing the design of kerbside recycling programmes. The authors hope that the research can provide insights for the ongoing development of methods to optimise the design and operation of kerbside recycling programmes.

Preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a low-risk obstetric population: a discrete choice experiment

Objective: Establish maternal preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a healthy, low-risk pregnant population.

Design: Cross-sectional study incorporating a discrete choice experiment.

Setting: A large, urban maternity hospital in Northern Ireland.

Participants: One hundred and forty-six women in their second trimester of pregnancy.

Methods: A discrete choice experiment was designed to elicit preferences for four attributes of a third-trimester ultrasound scan: health-care professional conducting the scan, detection rate for abnormal foetal growth, provision of non-medical information, cost. Additional data collected included age, marital status, socio-economic status, obstetric history, pregnancy-specific stress levels, perceived health and whether pregnancy was planned. Analysis was undertaken using a mixed logit model with interaction effects.

Main outcome measures: Women's preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of a hypothetical scan and indirect willingness-to-pay estimates.

Results: Women had significant positive preference for higher rate of detection, lower cost and provision of non-medical information, with no significant value placed on scan operator. Interaction effects revealed subgroups that valued the scan most: women experiencing their first pregnancy, women reporting higher levels of stress, an adverse obstetric history and older women.

Conclusions: Women were able to trade on aspects of care and place relative importance on clinical, non-clinical outcomes and processes of service delivery, thus highlighting the potential of using health utilities in the development of services from a clinical, economic and social perspective. Specifically, maternal preferences exhibited provide valuable information for designing a randomized trial of effectiveness and insight for clinical and policy decision makers to inform woman-centred care.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.

Fixed Bed Study of Ammonia Removal from Aqueous Solutions Using Natural Zeolite

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of natural Jordanian zeolite tuff to remove ammonia from aqueous solutions using a laboratory batch method and fixed-bed column apparatus. Equilibrium data were fitted to Langmuir and Freundlich models.

Design/methodology/approach
– Column experiments were conducted in packed bed column. The used apparatus consisted of a bench-mounted glass column of 2.5 cm inside diameter and 100 cm height (column volume = 490 cm3). The column was packed with a certain amount of zeolite to give the desired bed height. The feeding solution was supplied from a 30 liter plastic container at the beginning of each experiment and fed to the column down-flow through a glass flow meter having a working range of 10-280ml/min.

Findings
– Ammonium ion exchange by natural Jordanian zeolite data were fitted by Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Continuous sorption of ammonium ions by natural Jordanian zeolite tuff has proven to be effective in decreasing concentrations ranging from 15-50 mg NH4-N/L down to levels below 1 mg/l. Breakthrough time increased by increasing the bed depth as well as decreasing zeolite particle size, solution flow-rate, initial NH4+ concentration and pH. Sorption of ammonium by the zeolite under the tested conditions gave the sorption capacity of 28 mg NH4-N/L at 20°C, and 32 mg NH4-N/L at 30°C.

Originality/value
– This research investigates the performance of natural Jordanian zeolite tuff to remove ammonia from aqueous solutions using a laboratory batch method and fixed-bed column apparatus. The equilibrium data of the sorption of Ammonia were plotted by using the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms, then the experimental data were compared to the predictions of the above equilibrium isotherm models. It is clear that the NH4+ ion exchange data fitted better with Langmuir isotherm than with Freundlich model and gave an adequate correlation coefficient value.

Making heads or tails of probability:an experiment with random generators

The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as 'equiprobable' by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based on a misunderstanding of the concept of randomness.

Discharge kinetics of inductively coupled oxygen plasmas:Experiment and model

In this paper, neutral and charged particle dynamics in both the capacitive and inductive modes of an inductively coupled oxygen discharge are presented. Langmuir probes, laser-assisted photodetachment and two-photon laser-induced fluorescence are employed to measure plasma parameters in the 13.56MHz system for a range of plasma powers and gas pressures. It is found that the capacitive mode is more electronegative with lower molecular dissociation compared with the inductive mode. However, the negative ion density in each mode is comparable. A maximum is observed in the negative ion density and fraction with pressure for both modes. The experimental measurements are supplemented by a global model, which includes capacitive and inductive coupling effects. The model and experiments demonstrate that negative ion loss is dominated by ion-ion recombination and electron detachment at low pressures (