A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.

Motivational change during shell fights in the hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus

During agonistic interactions the motivation of each contestant is expected to vary because of increased information and changes in fighting ability. In shell fights between hermit crabs over gastropod shells, attackers rap their shell in a series of bouts against that of the defender whereas defenders remain withdrawn into their shells until the encounter is resolved; either the defender is evicted from its shell or the attacker 'gives up' and the defender retains its shell. We assessed the motivational state of attackers for performing rapping by measuring the duration of startle responses elicited by a novel stimulus. We staged fights between pairs of crabs in six different groups defined by the potential gain in shell quality available to attackers (high or low) and by the point at which the novel stimulus was applied (prior to rapping, after one bout or after four bouts). Startle response duration decreased during the first four bouts of fighting and showed a U-shaped relationship with the relative difference in size between the crabs. There was, no difference in startle response duration between high- and low-gain groups. Individuals showing short startle responses were likely to be victorious and we conclude that the relationship between the relative size difference of the opponents and. startle duration reflects that between size difference and the cost of gaining an eviction. (C) 2001 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Decision rules, energy metabolism and vigour of hermit-crab fights

Aggressive interactions between animals are often settled by the use of repeated signals that reduce the risk of injury from combat but are expected to be costly. The accumulation of lactic acid and the depletion of energy stores may constrain activity rates during and after fights and thus represent significant costs of signalling. We tested this by analysing the concentrations of lactate and glucose in the haemolymph of hermit crabs following agonistic interactions over the ownership of the gastropod shells that they inhabit. Attackers and defenders play distinct roles of sender and receiver that are fixed for the course of the encounter. Attackers perform bouts of 'shell rapping', which vary in vigour between attackers and during the course of the encounter, and are a key predictor of victory. In contrast to the agonistic behaviour of other species, we can quantify the vigour of fighting. We demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time, an association between the vigour of aggressive activity and a proximate cost of signalling. We show that the lactate concentration in attackers increases with the amount of shell rapping, and that this appears to constrain the vigour of subsequent rapping. Furthermore, attackers, but not defenders, give up when the concentration of lactate is high. Glucose levels in attackers also increase with the amount of rapping they perform, but do not appear to influence their decision to give up. Defenders are more likely to lose when they have particularly low levels of glucose. We conclude that the two roles use different decision rules during these encounters.

Economic cost of age-related macular degeneration: a review of recent research

As the population of most developed countries ages so the prevalence of diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are likely to increase. To facilitate planning and informed debate regarding making provisions for this disease it is important that we have a clear understanding of the economic impact of visual impairment associated with AMD. In this paper we assess the state of current knowledge based on a review of published evidence in scientific journals. Based on our assessment of the evidence we argue that the paucity of research studies on the subject and wide variation in estimates produced from the few studies available make it difficult to assess with confidence the likely average direct cost-of-illness associated with AMD. We further argue that significant gaps in our understanding of the costs of AMD (particularly in respect of indirect costs) also exist. Current research should be augmented by more comprehensive studies.

Query cost estimation through remote system contention states analysis over the Internet

Query processing over the Internet involving autonomous data sources is a major task in data integration. It requires the estimated costs of possible queries in order to select the best one that has the minimum cost. In this context, the cost of a query is affected by three factors: network congestion, server contention state, and complexity of the query. In this paper, we study the effects of both the network congestion and server contention state on the cost of a query. We refer to these two factors together as system contention states. We present a new approach to determining the system contention states by clustering the costs of a sample query. For each system contention state, we construct two cost formulas for unary and join queries respectively using the multiple regression process. When a new query is submitted, its system contention state is estimated first using either the time slides method or the statistical method. The cost of the query is then calculated using the corresponding cost formulas. The estimated cost of the query is further adjusted to improve its accuracy. Our experiments show that our methods can produce quite accurate cost estimates of the submitted queries to remote data sources over the Internet.