Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

WASP-41b: A Transiting Hot Jupiter Planet Orbiting a Magnetically Active G8V Star

We report the discovery of a transiting planet with an orbital period of 3.05 days orbiting the star TYC 7247-587-1. The star, WASP-41, is a moderately bright G8 V star (V=11.6) with a metallicity close to solar ([Fe/H]=-0.08±0.09). The star shows evidence of moderate chromospheric activity, both from emission in the cores of the Ca ii H and K ines and photometric variability with a period of 18.4 days and an amplitude of about 1%. We use a new method to show quantitatively that this periodic signal has a low false-alarm probability. The rotation period of the star implies a gyrochronological age for WASP-41 of 1.8 Gyr with an error of about 15%. We have used a combined analysis of the available photometric and spectroscopic data to derive the mass and radius of the planet (0.92±0.06 M, 1.20±0.06 R). Further observations of WASP-41 can be used to explore the connections between the properties of hot Jupiter planets and the level of chromospheric activity in their host stars.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

Investigation of the effect of simulated lens yellowing, transparency loss and refractive error on in vivo resonance Raman spectroscopy

To separately investigate the impact of simulated age-related lens yellowing, transparency loss and refractive error on measurements of macular pigment (MP) using resonance Raman spectroscopy.

Optimizing the balance between false positive and false negative error probabilities of confirmatory methods for the detection of veterinary drug residues

GC-MS data on veterinary drug residues in bovine urine are used for controlling the illegal practice of fattening cattle. According to current detection criteria, peak patterns of preferably four ions should agree within 10 or 20% from a corresponding standard pattern. These criteria are rigid, rather arbitrary and do not match daily practice. A new model, based on multivariate modeling of log peak abundance ratios, provides a theoretical basis for the identification of analytes and optimizes the balance between the avoidance of false positives and false negatives. The performance of the model is demonstrated on data provided by five laboratories, each supplying GC-MS measurements on the detection of clenbuterol, dienestrol and 19 beta-nortestosterone in urine. The proposed model shows a better performance than confirmation by using the current criteria and provides a statistical basis for inspection criteria in terms of error probabilities.

Assessing modern ground survey methods and airborne laser scanning for digital terrain modelling:A case study from the Lake District, England

This paper compares the applicability of three ground survey methods for modelling terrain: one man electronic tachymetry (TPS), real time kinematic GPS (GPS), and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Vertical accuracy of digital terrain models (DTMs) derived from GPS, TLS and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data is assessed. Point elevations acquired by the four methods represent two sections of a mountainous area in Cumbria, England. They were chosen so that the presence of non-terrain features is constrained to the smallest amount. The vertical accuracy of the DTMs was addressed by subtracting each DTM from TPS point elevations. The error was assessed using exploratory measures including statistics, histograms, and normal probability plots. The results showed that the internal measurement accuracy of TPS, GPS, and TLS was below a centimetre. TPS and GPS can be considered equally applicable alternatives for sampling the terrain in areas accessible on foot. The highest DTM vertical accuracy was achieved with GPS data, both on sloped terrain (RMSE 0.16. m) and flat terrain (RMSE 0.02. m). TLS surveying was the most efficient overall but veracity of terrain representation was subject to dense vegetation cover. Therefore, the DTM accuracy was the lowest for the sloped area with dense bracken (RMSE 0.52. m) although it was the second highest on the flat unobscured terrain (RMSE 0.07. m). ALS data represented the sloped terrain more realistically (RMSE 0.23. m) than the TLS. However, due to a systematic bias identified on the flat terrain the DTM accuracy was the lowest (RMSE 0.29. m) which was above the level stated by the data provider. Error distribution models were more closely approximated by normal distribution defined using median and normalized median absolute deviation which supports the use of the robust measures in DEM error modelling and its propagation. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Pattern stability and error correction during in-phase and antiphase four-ball juggling

The authors studied pattern stability and error correction during in-phase and antiphase 4-ball fountain juggling. To obtain ball trajectories, they made and digitized high-speed film recordings of 4 highly skilled participants juggling at 3 different heights (and thus different frequencies). From those ball trajectories, the authors determined and analyzed critical events (i.e., toss, zenith, catch, and toss onset) in terms of variability of point estimates of relative phase and temporal correlations. Contrary to common findings on basic instances of rhythmic interlimb coordination, in-phase and antiphase patterns were equally variable (i.e., stable). Consistent with previous findings, however, pattern stability decreased with increasing frequency. In contrast to previous results for 3-ball cascade juggling, negative lag-one correlations for catch-catch intervals were absent, but the authors obtained evidence for error corrections between catches and toss onsets. That finding may have reflected participants' high skill level, which yielded smaller errors that allowed for corrections later in the hand cycle.

Error analysis of FFT architectures for digital video applications

This paper describes how worst-case error analysis can be applied to solve some of the practical issues in the development and implementation of a low power, high performance radix-4 FFT chip for digital video applications. The chip has been fabricated using a 0.6 µm CMOS technology and can perform a 64 point complex forward or inverse FFT on real-time video at up to 18 Megasamples per second. It comprises 0.5 million transistors in a die area of 7.8×8 mm and dissipates 1 W, leading to a cost-effective silicon solution for high quality video processing applications. The analysis focuses on the effect that different radix-4 architectural configurations and finite wordlengths has on the FFT output dynamic range. These issues are addressed using both mathematical error models and through extensive simulation.

The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Dual-processes in learning and judgment:Evidence from the multiple cue probability learning paradigm

Multiple cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion based on a set of novel cues when feedback is provided in response to each judgment made. But to what extent does MCPL require controlled attention and explicit hypothesis testing? The results of two experiments show that this depends on cue polarity. Learning about cues that predict positively is aided by automatic cognitive processes, whereas learning about cues that predict negatively is especially demanding on controlled attention and hypothesis testing processes. In the studies reported here, negative, but not positive cue learning related to individual differences in working memory capacity both on measures of overall judgment performance and modelling of the implicit learning process. However, the introduction of a novel method to monitor participants' explicit beliefs about a set of cues on a trial-by-trial basis revealed that participants were engaged in explicit hypothesis testing about positive and negative cues, and explicit beliefs about both types of cues were linked to working memory capacity. Taken together, our results indicate that while people are engaged in explicit hypothesis testing during cue learning, explicit beliefs are applied to judgment only when cues are negative. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.