Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Workplace social capital and risk of chronic and severe hypertension: a cohort study

Objective: The association between workplace factors and the development of hypertension remains uncertain. We examined the risk of hypertension as a function of workplace social capital, that is, social cohesion, trust and reciprocity in the workplace.

Anthropometric measurements from a cross-sectional survey of community dwelling subjects aged over 90 years of age

To measure anthropometric variables of weight, height, body mass index (BMI) and triceps skin fold thickness (TSF) and produce local percentiles for > 90 y old subjects. To assess prevalence of conventional measures of under nutrition (BMI at or below 18.5 kg/m2) or over nutrition (BMI values > 30 kg/m2) in this age group.

Community-acquired infections associated with increased risk of lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinaemia

Emerging evidence supports the role of immune stimulation in the development of lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström Macroglobulinaemia (LPL/WM). Using the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology End Results-Medicare database we investigated the exposure to 14 common community-acquired infections and subsequent risk of LPL/WM in 693 LPL/WM cases and 200 000 controls. Respiratory tract infections, bronchitis [odds ratio (OR) 1·56], pharyngitis (OR 1·43), pneumonia (OR 1·42) and sinusitis (OR 1·33) and skin infection, herpes zoster (OR 1·51) were all significantly associated with subsequent increased risk of LPL/WM. For each of these infections, the findings remained significantly elevated following the exclusion of more than 6 years of Medicare claims data prior to LPL/WM diagnosis. Our findings may support a role for infections in the development of LPL/WM or could reflect an underlying immune disturbance that is present several years prior to diagnosis and thereby part of the natural history of disease progression.