Correlation of phantom-based and log file patient-specific QA with complexity scores for VMAT

The motivation for this study was to reduce physics workload relating to patient- specific quality assurance (QA). VMAT plan delivery accuracy was determined from analysis of pre- and on-treatment trajectory log files and phantom-based ionization chamber array measurements. The correlation in this combination of measurements for patient-specific QA was investigated. The relationship between delivery errors and plan complexity was investigated as a potential method to further reduce patient-specific QA workload. Thirty VMAT plans from three treatment sites - prostate only, prostate and pelvic node (PPN), and head and neck (H&N) - were retrospectively analyzed in this work. The 2D fluence delivery reconstructed from pretreatment and on-treatment trajectory log files was compared with the planned fluence using gamma analysis. Pretreatment dose delivery verification was also car- ried out using gamma analysis of ionization chamber array measurements compared with calculated doses. Pearson correlations were used to explore any relationship between trajectory log file (pretreatment and on-treatment) and ionization chamber array gamma results (pretreatment). Plan complexity was assessed using the MU/ arc and the modulation complexity score (MCS), with Pearson correlations used to examine any relationships between complexity metrics and plan delivery accu- racy. Trajectory log files were also used to further explore the accuracy of MLC and gantry positions. Pretreatment 1%/1 mm gamma passing rates for trajectory log file analysis were 99.1% (98.7%-99.2%), 99.3% (99.1%-99.5%), and 98.4% (97.3%-98.8%) (median (IQR)) for prostate, PPN, and H&N, respectively, and were significantly correlated to on-treatment trajectory log file gamma results (R = 0.989, p < 0.001). Pretreatment ionization chamber array (2%/2 mm) gamma results were also significantly correlated with on-treatment trajectory log file gamma results (R = 0.623, p < 0.001). Furthermore, all gamma results displayed a significant correlation with MCS (R > 0.57, p < 0.001), but not with MU/arc. Average MLC position and gantry angle errors were 0.001 ± 0.002 mm and 0.025° ± 0.008° over all treatment sites and were not found to affect delivery accuracy. However, vari- ability in MLC speed was found to be directly related to MLC position accuracy. The accuracy of VMAT plan delivery assessed using pretreatment trajectory log file fluence delivery and ionization chamber array measurements were strongly correlated with on-treatment trajectory log file fluence delivery. The strong corre- lation between trajectory log file and phantom-based gamma results demonstrates potential to reduce our current patient-specific QA. Additionally, insight into MLC and gantry position accuracy through trajectory log file analysis and the strong cor- relation between gamma analysis results and the MCS could also provide further methodologies to both optimize the VMAT planning and QA process. 

Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Lack of in vitro-in vivo correlation for a UC781-releasing vaginal ring in macaques

This study describes the preclinical development of a matrix-type silicone elastomer vaginal ring device designed to provide controlled release of UC781, a non-nucleoside re- verse transcriptase inhibitor. Testing of both human- and macaque-sized rings in a sink condition in vitro release model demonstrated continuous UC781 release in quantities consid- ered sufficient to maintain vaginal fluid concentrations at levels 82–860-fold higher than the in vitro IC50 (2.0 to 10.4 nM) and therefore potentially protect against mucosal trans- mission of HIV. The 100-mg UC781 rings were well tolerated in pig-tailed macaques, did not induce local inflammation as determined by cytokine analysis and maintained median con- centrations in vaginal fluids of UC781 in the range of 0.27 to 5.18 mM during the course of the 28-day study. Analysis of residual UC781 content in rings after completion of both the in vitro release and macaque pharmacokinetic studies revealed that 57 and 5 mg of UC781 was released, respectively. The pharmacokinetic analysis of a 100-mg UC781 vaginal ring in pig-tailed macaques showed poor in vivo–in vitro correlation, attributed to the very poor solubility of UC781 in vaginal fluid and resulting in a dissolution-controlled drug release mecha- nism rather than the expected diffusion-controlled mechanism.

Analysis of wntless (WLS) expression in gastric, ovarian, and breast cancers reveals a strong association with HER2 overexpression

The oncogenic role of WNT is well characterized. Wntless (WLS) (also known as GPR177, or Evi), a key modulator of WNT protein secretion, was recently found to be highly overexpressed in malignant astrocytomas. We hypothesized that this molecule may be aberrantly expressed in other cancers known to possess aberrant WNT signaling such as ovarian, gastric, and breast cancers. Immunohistochemical analysis using a TMA platform revealed WLS overexpression in a subset of ovarian, gastric, and breast tumors; this overexpression was associated with poorer clinical outcomes in gastric cancer (P=0.025). In addition, a strong correlation was observed between WLS expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) overexpression. Indeed, 100% of HER2-positive intestinal gastric carcinomas, 100% of HER2-positive serous ovarian carcinomas, and 64% of HER2-positive breast carcinomas coexpressed WLS protein. Although HER2 protein expression or gene amplification is an established predictive biomarker for trastuzumab response in breast and gastric cancers, a significant proportion of HER2-positive tumors display resistance to trastuzumab, which may be in part explainable by a possible mechanistic link between WLS and HER2.

Automated tumour annotation and analysis for molecular pathology using TissueMark (R)

Objective: Molecular pathology relies on identifying anomalies using PCR or analysis of DNA/RNA. This is important in solid tumours where molecular stratification of patients define targeted treatment. These molecular biomarkers rely on examination of tumour, annotation for possible macro dissection/tumour cell enrichment and the estimation of % tumour. Manually marking up tumour is error prone. Method: We have developed a method for automated tumour mark-up and % cell calculations using image analysis called TissueMark® based on texture analysis for lung, colorectal and breast (cases=245, 100, 100 respectively). Pathologists marked slides for tumour and reviewed the automated analysis. A subset of slides was manually counted for tumour cells to provide a benchmark for automated image analysis. Results: There was a strong concordance between pathological and automated mark-up (100 % acceptance rate for macro-dissection). We also showed a strong concordance between manually/automatic drawn boundaries (median exclusion/inclusion error of 91.70 %/89 %). EGFR mutation analysis was precisely the same for manual and automated annotation-based macrodissection. The annotation accuracy rates in breast and colorectal cancer were 83 and 80 % respectively. Finally, region-based estimations of tumour percentage using image analysis showed significant correlation with actual cell counts. Conclusion: Image analysis can be used for macro-dissection to (i) annotate tissue for tumour and (ii) estimate the % tumour cells and represents an approach to standardising/improving molecular diagnostics.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

On the Multivariate Gamma-Gamma (ΓΓ) Distribution with Arbitrary Correlation and Applications in Wireless Communications

The statistical properties of the multivariate GammaGamma (ΓΓ) distribution with arbitrary correlation have remained unknown. In this paper, we provide analytical expressions for the joint probability density function (PDF), cumulative distribution function (CDF) and moment generation function of the multivariate ΓΓ distribution with arbitrary correlation. Furthermore, we present novel approximating expressions for the PDF and CDF of the su m of ΓΓ random variables with arbitrary correlation. Based on this statistical analysis, we investigate the performance of radio frequency and optical wireless communication systems. It is noteworthy that the presented expressions include several previous results in the literature as special cases.

Statistical Analysis of Small Ellerman Bomb Events

The properties of Ellerman bombs (EBs), small-scale brightenings in the Hα line wings, have proved difficult to establish because their size is close to the spatial resolution of even the most advanced telescopes. Here, we aim to infer the size and lifetime of EBs using high-resolution data of an emerging active region collected using the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectrometer (IBIS) and Rapid Oscillations of the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instruments as well as the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We develop an algorithm to track EBs through their evolution, finding that EBs can often be much smaller (around 0.3″) and shorter-lived (less than one minute) than previous estimates. A correlation between G-band magnetic bright points and EBs is also found. Combining SDO/HMI and G-band data gives a good proxy of the polarity for the vertical magnetic field. It is found that EBs often occur both over regions of opposite polarity flux and strong unipolar fields, possibly hinting at magnetic reconnection as a driver of these events.The energetics of EB events is found to follow a power-law distribution in the range of a nanoflare (1022-25 ergs).

Sector analysis provides additional spatial information on the permanent prostate brachytherapy learning curve

PURPOSE: To evaluate the permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB) learning curve using postimplant multisector dosimetric analysis and to assess the correlation between sector -specific dosimetry and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs).

METHODS AND METHODS: First 200 patients treated with (125)I PPB monotherapy (145 Gy) at a single institution were assessed. Postimplant dosimetry (PID) using CT was evaluated for whole prostate (global) and 12 sectors, assessing minimum dose to 90% of prostate (D90) and dose to 0.1 cm(3) of rectum (D0.1cc). Global and sector PID results were evaluated to investigate changes in D90 with case number. Urinary and bowel PROMs were assessed using the International Prostate Symptom Score and the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite questionnaire. The correlation between global and individual sector PID and urinary/bowel PROMs was also evaluated.

RESULTS: Linear regression confirmed a significant improvement in global D90 with case number (r(2) = 0.20; p = 0.001) at a rate of 0.11 Gy/case. Postimplant D90 of base sectors increased at a rate of 0.11-0.15 Gy/case (p = 0.0001) and matched global improvement. The regression lines of midgland and apex sectors were significantly different from global D90 (p = 0.01). Posterior midgland sectors showed a significant reduction in D90 with case number at a rate of 0.13-0.19 Gy/case (p = 0.01). Dose to posterior midgland sectors correlated with rectal D0.1cc dose but not bowel PROMs. Dose to posterior midgland sectors correlated with urinary International Prostate Symptom Score change, which was not apparent when global D90 alone was considered.

CONCLUSIONS: Sector analysis provided increased spatial information regarding the PPB learning curve. Furthermore, sector analysis correlated with urinary PROMs and rectal dose.

Bank Failures of the 1990s::An Exploratory Analysis

Past research has frequently attributed the incidence of bank failures to macroeconomic cycles and/or downturns in the regional economy. More recent analyses have suggested that the incidence and severity of bank failures can be linked to governance failures, which may be preventable through more stringent disclosure and auditing requirements. Using data on bank failures during the years 1991 to 1997, for the US, Canada, the UK and Germany, this study examines the relationship between institutional characteristics of national legal and auditing systems and the incidence of bank failures. In the second part of our analysis we then examined the relationship between the same institutional variables and the severity of bank failures.
The first part of our study notes a significant correlation between the law and order tradition (‘rule of law’) of a national legal system and the incidence of bank failures. Nations which were assigned high 'rule of law’ scores by country risk guides appear to have been less likely to experience bank failures. Another variable which appears to impact on bank failure rates is the ‘risk of contract repudiation’. Countries with a greater ‘risk of contract repudiation’ appear to be more likely to experience bank failures. We suggest that this may be due to a greater ex ante protection of stakeholders in countries where contract enforcement is more stringent.
The results of the second part of our study are less clear cut. However, there appears to be a significant correlation between the amount paid out by national deposit insurers (our proxy for the severity of bank failures) and the macroeconomic variable 'GDP change'. Here our findings follow the conventional wisdom; with greater amounts of deposit insurance funds being paid during economic downturns (i.e. low or negative GDP 'growth' correlates with high amounts of deposit insurance being paid out). A less pronounced relationship with the severity of bank failures can also be established for the institutional variables ' accounting standards' as well as 'risk of contract repudiation'. Countries with more stringent ‘accounting standards’ and a low ‘risk of contract repudiation’ appear to have been less prone to severe bank failures.

Finite Element Analysis of the Enhanced Strength of Laterally Restrained RC Slabs

This paper presents the numerical simulation of the ultimate behaviour of 85 one-way and two-way spanning laterally restrained concrete slabs of variable thickness, span, reinforcement ratio, strength and boundary conditions reported in literature by different authors. The developed numerical model was described and all the assumptions were illustrated. ABAQUS, a Finite Element Analysis suite of software, was employed. Non-linear implicit static general analysis method offered by ABAQUS was used. Other analysis methods were also discussed in general in terms of application such as Explicit Dynamic Analysis and Riks method. The aim is to demonstrate the ability and efficacy of FEA to simulate the ultimate load behaviour of slabs considering different material properties and boundary conditions. The authors intended to present a numerical model that provides consistent predictions of the ultimate behaviour of laterally restrained slabs that could be used as an alternative for expensive real life testing as well as for the design and assessment of new and existing structures respectively. The enhanced strength of laterally-restrained slabs compared with conventional design methods predictions is believed to be due to compressive membrane action (CMA). CMA is an inherent phenomenon of laterally restrained concrete beams/slabs. The numerical predictions obtained from the developed model were in good correlation with the experimental results and with those obtained from the CMA method developed at the Queen’s University Belfast, UK.

Automated tumor analysis for molecular profiling in lung cancer

The discovery and clinical application of molecular biomarkers in solid tumors, increasingly relies on nucleic acid extraction from FFPE tissue sections and subsequent molecular profiling. This in turn requires the pathological review of haematoxylin & eosin (H&E) stained slides, to ensure sample quality, tumor DNA sufficiency by visually estimating the percentage tumor nuclei and tumor annotation for manual macrodissection. In this study on NSCLC, we demonstrate considerable variation in tumor nuclei percentage between pathologists, potentially undermining the precision of NSCLC molecular evaluation and emphasising the need for quantitative tumor evaluation. We subsequently describe the development and validation of a system called TissueMark for automated tumor annotation and percentage tumor nuclei measurement in NSCLC using computerized image analysis. Evaluation of 245 NSCLC slides showed precise automated tumor annotation of cases using Tissuemark, strong concordance with manually drawn boundaries and identical EGFR mutational status, following manual macrodissection from the image analysis generated tumor boundaries. Automated analysis of cell counts for % tumor measurements by Tissuemark showed reduced variability and significant correlation (p < 0.001) with benchmark tumor cell counts. This study demonstrates a robust image analysis technology that can facilitate the automated quantitative analysis of tissue samples for molecular profiling in discovery and diagnostics.

Tooth replacement for partially dentate elders: a willingness-to-pay analysis

Objectives: The primary aim of this study was to investigate partially dentate elders’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for two different tooth replacement strategies: using Removable Partial Dentures (RPDs) and, functionally orientated treatment (SDA). The secondary aim was to measure the same patient group’s WTP for dental implants. Methods: Patients who had completed a previous RCT comparing two tooth replacement strategies (RPDs and SDA) were recruited. 59 patients were asked to indicate their WTP for treatment to replace missing teeth in a number of hypothetical scenarios using the payment card method of contingency evaluation coupled to different costs. Data were collected on patients’ social class, longest held occupation, income levels and social circumstances. Results: The median age for the patient sample was 72.0 years (IQR: 71-75 years). Patients who had previously been provided with RPDs indicated that their WTP for this treatment strategy was significantly higher than those patients who had received SDA treatment (Mann-Whitney U Test: p<0.001). This group were also WTP a higher price for SDA treatment than those patients who had previously been treated according to this modality (Mann-Whitney U Test: p=0.005). The results indicated that patients’ age was not correlated with WTP but both social class and current income levels were significantly correlated (Spearman’s rank correlation: p<0.05). Patients in both treatment groups exhibited llittle WTP for dental implant treatment with a median price recorded which was lower than either RPD or SDA treatment. Conclusions: Amongst this patient cohort previous treatment experience had a strong influence on WTP as did social class and current income levels. The patients’ WTP indicated that they did not value dental implants over simpler forms of tooth replacement such as RPDs or a SDA approach.

Compositional Data Analysis in Forensic Geoscience

Statistics are regularly used to make some form of comparison between trace evidence or deploy the exclusionary principle (Morgan and Bull, 2007) in forensic investigations. Trace evidence are routinely the results of particle size, chemical or modal analyses and as such constitute compositional data. The issue is that compositional data including percentages, parts per million etc. only carry relative information. This may be problematic where a comparison of percentages and other constraint/closed data is deemed a statistically valid and appropriate way to present trace evidence in a court of law. Notwithstanding an awareness of the existence of the constant sum problem since the seminal works of Pearson (1896) and Chayes (1960) and the introduction of the application of log-ratio techniques (Aitchison, 1986; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Egozcue, 2001; Pawlowsky-Glahn and Buccianti, 2011; Tolosana-Delgado and van den Boogaart, 2013) the problem that a constant sum destroys the potential independence of variances and covariances required for correlation regression analysis and empirical multivariate methods (principal component analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, canonical correlation) is all too often not acknowledged in the statistical treatment of trace evidence. Yet the need for a robust treatment of forensic trace evidence analyses is obvious. This research examines the issues and potential pitfalls for forensic investigators if the constant sum constraint is ignored in the analysis and presentation of forensic trace evidence. Forensic case studies involving particle size and mineral analyses as trace evidence are used to demonstrate the use of a compositional data approach using a centred log-ratio (clr) transformation and multivariate statistical analyses.

A Correlation Between Host Star Activity and Planet Mass for Close-in Extrasolar Planets?

The activity levels of stars are influenced by several stellar properties, such as stellar rotation, spectral type, and the presence of stellar companions. Analogous to binaries, planetary companions are also thought to be able to cause higher activity levels in their host stars, although at lower levels. Especially in X-rays, such influences are hard to detect because coronae of cool stars exhibit a considerable amount of intrinsic variability. Recently, a correlation between the mass of close-in exoplanets and their host star's X-ray luminosity has been detected, based on archival X-ray data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey. This finding has been interpreted as evidence for star-planet interactions. We show in our analysis that this correlation is caused by selection effects due to the flux limit of the X-ray data used and due to the intrinsic planet detectability of the radial velocity method, and thus does not trace possible planet-induced effects. We also show that the correlation is not present in a corresponding complete sample derived from combined XMM-Newton and ROSAT data.