International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

Dissolved Argon Changes the Rate of Diffusion in Room Temperature Ionic Liquids: Effect of the Presence and Absence of Argon and Nitrogen on the Voltammetry of Ferrocene

This work explores the effects of argon and nitrogen, two electrochemically and chemically inert gases frequently used in sample preparation of room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL) solutions, on the eelectrochemical characterization of ferrocene (Fc) dissolved in the RTIL 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide ([C(2)mim][NTf2]). Remarkably, chronoamperometrically determined diffusion coefficients of Fc in [C(2)mim][NTf2] are found to increase from 4.8 (+/- 0.2) x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) under vacuum conditions to 6.6 (+/- 0.5) x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) in an atmosphere of 1 atm Ar. In contrast, exposing a vacuum-purified sample to an atmosphere of 1 atm N-2 resulted in no significant change in the measured diffusion coefficient of Fc. The effect of dissolved argon on diffusion transport is unexpected and has implications in electrochemistry and elsewhere. Fc was found to volatilize under vacuum conditions. We propose, however, that evacuation of the cell by vacuum prior to electrochemical measurements being carried out is the only way to ensure that no contamination of the sample occurs, and use of an in situ method of determining the diffusion coefficient and concentration of Fc dispells,any ambiguity associated with Fc depletion by vacuum.

Bimolecular rate constants for diffusion in ionic liquids

The temperature dependence of the bimolecular rate constants for a diffusion controlled reaction involving neutral reactants have been directly determined in five commonly used ionic liquids over the temperature range 5-70 degreesC.

The Y-procedure: How to extract the chemical transformation rate from reaction-diffusion data with no assumption on the kinetic model

The paper presents a new method to extract the chemical transformation rate from reaction–diffusion data with no assumption on the kinetic model (“kinetic model-free procedure”). It is a new non-steady-state kinetic characterization procedure for heterogeneous catalysts. The mathematical foundation of the Y-procedure is a Laplace-domain analysis of the two inert zones in a TZTR followed by transposition to the Fourier domain. When combined with time discretization and filtering the Y-procedure leads to an efficient practical method for reconstructing the concentration and reaction rate in the active zone. Using the Y-procedure the concentration and reaction rate of a non-steady state catalytic process can be determined without any pre-assumption regarding the type of kinetic dependence. The Y-procedure is the basis for advanced software for non-steady state kinetic data interpretation. The Y-procedure can be used to relate changes in the catalytic reaction rate and kinetic parameters to changes in the surface composition (storage) of a catalyst.

The Impact of Engagement Processes on the First Appointment Attendance Rate at a Regional Outpatient Psychological Trauma Service.

The effectiveness of simple measures to increase attendance at first appointments is briefly reviewed. The Family Trauma Centre’s remit and pre-study engagement process are described. The perceived idiosyncratic aspects of inviting people suffering from psychological trauma to attend a clinical service are noted as contributory factors in initially tolerating a high first appointment DNA rate. Three new initial engagement processes are then described and results of their application to 30 referrals in total are presented. The overwhelming finding is that paying close attention to any of the three initial engagement processes significantly increases first appointment attendance. Based on these findings the Centre developed a new initial engagement protocol.. The principle that services should pay more attention to their engagement processes than on the characteristics of their client groups when seeking to reduce first appointment DNA rates is supported.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

The finding of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate is associated with increased mortality in a large UK population

BACKGROUND: CKD as defined by KDIGO/KDOQI has been shown to affect ~ 8.5% of the UK population. The prevalence of CKD in the UK is similar to that in the USA, yet incident dialysis rates are dramatically different. This retrospective cohort study investigates the association between reduced kidney function and mortality in a large UK population. METHODS: All serum creatinine results covering Northern Ireland's 1.7 million population were collected between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated for all serum creatinine measurements using four-variable MDRD equation (IDMS aligned). Patients were followed up for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality data until the end of December 2006. Patients on renal replacement therapy were excluded. Subgroup analysis in the 75 345 subjects enrolled within a parallel primary care study permitted additional survival analysis with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1 967 827 serum creatinine results from 533 798 patients were collected. During the period of follow-up, 59 980 deaths occurred. In multivariate survival analysis, using eGFR as a time-varying covariate, a graded association between CKD (defined by eGFR) and all-cause mortality was identified. Compared with participants with an eGFR of > 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the adjusted hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for participants with an eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.02 (0.99-1.04), an eGFR of 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.44 (1.40-1.47), an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 2.12 (2.05-2.20) and an eGFR of

Specific growth rate plays a critical role in hydrogen peroxide resistance of the marine oligotrophic ultramicrobacterium Sphingomonas alaskensis strain RB2256

The marine oligotrophic ultramicrobacterium Sphingomonas alaskensis RB2256 has a physiology that is distinctly different from that of typical copiotrophic marine bacteria, such as Vibrio angustum S14. This includes a high level of inherent stress resistance and the absence of starvation-induced stress resistance to hydrogen peroxide. In addition to periods of starvation in the ocean, slow nutrient-limited growth is likely to be encountered by oligotrophic bacteria for substantial periods of time. In this study we examined the effects of growth rate on the resistance of S. alaskensis RB2256 to hydrogen peroxide under carbon or nitrogen limitation conditions in nutrient-limited chemostats. Glucose-limited cultures of S. alaskensis RB2256 at a specific growth rate of 0.02 to 0.13 h(-1) exhibited 10,000-fold-greater viability following 60 min of exposure to 25 mM hydrogen peroxide than tells growing at a rate of 0.14 h(-1) or higher. Growth rate control of stress resistance was found to be specific to carbon and energy limitation in this organism. In contrast, V. angustum S14 did not exhibit growth rate-dependent stress resistance. The dramatic switch in stress resistance that was observed under carbon and energy limitation conditions has not been described previously in bacteria and thus may be a characteristic of the oligotrophic ultramicrobacterium, Catalase activity varied marginally and did not correlate with the growth rate, indicating that hydrogen peroxide breakdown was not the primary mechanism of resistance. More than 1,000 spots were resolved on silver-stained protein gels for cultures growing at rates of 0.026, 0.076, and 0.18 h(-1). Twelve protein spots had intensities that varied by more than twofold between growth rates and hence are likely to be important for growth rate-dependent stress resistance. These studies demonstrated the crucial role that nutrient limitation plays in the physiology of S. alaskensis RB2256, especially under oxidative stress conditions.