61 resultados para Chance.


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Human listeners seem to be remarkably able to recognise acoustic sound sources based on timbre cues. Here we describe a psychophysical paradigm to estimate the time it takes to recognise a set of complex sounds differing only in timbre cues: both in terms of the minimum duration of the sounds and the inferred neural processing time. Listeners had to respond to the human voice while ignoring a set of distractors. All sounds were recorded from natural sources over the same pitch range and equalised to the same duration and power. In a first experiment, stimuli were gated in time with a raised-cosine window of variable duration and random onset time. A voice/non-voice (yes/no) task was used. Performance, as measured by d', remained above chance for the shortest sounds tested (2 ms); d's above 1 were observed for durations longer than or equal to 8 ms. Then, we constructed sequences of short sounds presented in rapid succession. Listeners were asked to report the presence of a single voice token that could occur at a random position within the sequence. This method is analogous to the "rapid sequential visual presentation" paradigm (RSVP), which has been used to evaluate neural processing time for images. For 500-ms sequences made of 32-ms and 16-ms sounds, d' remained above chance for presentation rates of up to 30 sounds per second. There was no effect of the pitch relation between successive sounds: identical for all sounds in the sequence or random for each sound. This implies that the task was not determined by streaming or forward masking, as both phenomena would predict better performance for the random pitch condition. Overall, the recognition of familiar sound categories such as the voice seems to be surprisingly fast, both in terms of the acoustic duration required and of the underlying neural time constants.

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The burial of objects (human remains, explosives, weapons) below or behind concrete, brick, plaster or tiling may be associated with serious crime and are difficult locations to search. These are quite common forensic search scenarios but little has been published on them to-date. Most documented discoveries are accidental or from suspect/witness testimony. The problem in locating such hidden objects means a random or chance-based approach is not advisable. A preliminary strategy is presented here, based on previous studies, augmented by primary research where new technology or applications are required. This blend allows a rudimentary search workflow, from remote desktop study, to non-destructive investigation through to recommendations as to how the above may inform excavation, demonstrated here with a case study from a homicide investigation. Published case studies on the search for human remains demonstrate the problems encountered when trying to find and recover sealed-in and sealed over locations. Established methods include desktop study, photography, geophysics and search dogs:these are integrated with new technology (LiDAR and laser scanning; photographic rectification; close quarter aerial imagery; ground-penetrating radar on walls and gamma-ray/neutron activation radiography) to propose this possible search strategy.

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Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex and heritable eating disorder characterized by dangerously low body weight. Neither candidate gene studies nor an initial genome-wide association study (GWAS) have yielded significant and replicated results. We performed a GWAS in 2907 cases with AN from 14 countries (15 sites) and 14 860 ancestrally matched controls as part of the Genetic Consortium for AN (GCAN) and the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3). Individual association analyses were conducted in each stratum and meta-analyzed across all 15 discovery data sets. Seventy-six (72 independent) single nucleotide polymorphisms were taken forward for in silico (two data sets) or de novo (13 data sets) replication genotyping in 2677 independent AN cases and 8629 European ancestry controls along with 458 AN cases and 421 controls from Japan. The final global meta-analysis across discovery and replication data sets comprised 5551 AN cases and 21 080 controls. AN subtype analyses (1606 AN restricting; 1445 AN binge-purge) were performed. No findings reached genome-wide significance. Two intronic variants were suggestively associated: rs9839776 (P=3.01 × 10(-7)) in SOX2OT and rs17030795 (P=5.84 × 10(-6)) in PPP3CA. Two additional signals were specific to Europeans: rs1523921 (P=5.76 × 10(-)(6)) between CUL3 and FAM124B and rs1886797 (P=8.05 × 10(-)(6)) near SPATA13. Comparing discovery with replication results, 76% of the effects were in the same direction, an observation highly unlikely to be due to chance (P=4 × 10(-6)), strongly suggesting that true findings exist but our sample, the largest yet reported, was underpowered for their detection. The accrual of large genotyped AN case-control samples should be an immediate priority for the field.

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Summary

1.While plant–fungal interactions are important determinants of plant community assembly and ecosystem functioning, the processes underlying fungal community composition are poorly understood.
2.Here, we studied for the first time the root-associated eumycotan communities in a set of co-occurring plant species of varying relatedness in a species-rich, semi-arid grassland in Germany. The study system provides an opportunity to evaluate the importance of host plants and gradients in soil type and landscape structure as drivers of fungal community structure on a relevant spatial scale. We used 454 pyrosequencing of the fungal internal transcribed spacer region to analyse root-associated eumycotan communities of 25 species within the Asteraceae, which were sampled at different locations within a soil type gradient. We partitioned the variance accounted for by three predictors (host plant phylogeny, spatial distribution and soil type) to quantify their relative roles in determining fungal community composition and used null model analyses to determine whether community composition was influenced by biotic interactions among the fungi.
3.We found a high fungal diversity (156 816 sequences clustered in 1100 operational taxonomic units (OTUs)). Most OTUs belonged to the phylum Ascomycota (35.8%); the most abundant phylotype best-matched Phialophora mustea. Basidiomycota were represented by 18.3%, with Sebacina as most abundant genus. The three predictors explained 30% of variation in the community structure of root-associated fungi, with host plant phylogeny being the most important variance component. Null model analysis suggested that many fungal taxa co-occurred less often than expected by chance, which demonstrates spatial segregation and indicates that negative interactions may prevail in the assembly of fungal communities.
4.Synthesis. The results show that the phylogenetic relationship of host plants is the most important predictor of root-associated fungal community assembly, indicating that fungal colonization of host plants might be facilitated by certain plant traits that may be shared among closely related plant species.

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Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen and an important cause of infection, particularly amongst cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. While specific strains capable of patient-to-patient transmission are known, many infections appear to be caused by unique and unrelated strains. There is a need to understand the relationship between strains capable of colonising the CF lung and the broader set of P. aeruginosa isolates found in natural environments. Here we report the results of a multilocus sequence typing (MLST)-based study designed to understand the genetic diversity and population structure of an extensive regional sample of P. aeruginosa isolates from South East Queensland, Australia. The analysis is based on 501 P. aeruginosa isolates obtained from environmental, animal and human (CF and non-CF) sources with particular emphasis on isolates from the Lower Brisbane River and isolates from CF patients obtained from the same geographical region. Overall, MLST identified 274 different sequence types, of which 53 were shared between one or more ecological settings. Our analysis revealed a limited association between genotype and environment and evidence of frequent recombination. We also found that genetic diversity of P. aeruginosa in Queensland, Australia was indistinguishable from that of the global P. aeruginosa population. Several CF strains were encountered frequently in multiple ecological settings; however, the most frequently encountered CF strains were confined to CF patients. Overall, our data confirm a non-clonal epidemic structure and indicate that most CF strains are a random sample of the broader P. aeruginosa population. The increased abundance of some CF strains in different geographical regions is a likely product of chance colonisation events followed by adaptation to the CF lung and horizontal transmission among patients.

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In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O’Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (2014) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice next time round. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret, and whether it was the experience of this emotion rather than the ability to anticipate it that impacted on decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6-7 were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making.

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Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: “internal control”, corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; “control by powerful others”, whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and “chance control”, according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40–65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region.

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This paper focuses on the contribution that the study of bone technology is making to the understanding of early tropical subsistence in Southeast Asia. Newly completed research suggests that during the period from the terminal Pleistocene to mid Holocene, bone tools may have featured prominently in coastal subsistence. There are indications that this technology may have had a particular association with hunting and gathering in the mangrove forests that proliferated along many coasts during this period. The study of these tools thus represents a rare chance to examine prehistoric extractive technologies, which are generally agreed to have been predominantly made on organic, nonpreserving media. The evidence presented also suggests that prehistoric foragers from this region possessed a good working understanding of the mechanical properties of bone and used bone implements where conditions and needs suited the parameters of this material. © 2005 by the University of Hawai'i Press.

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This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

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Young people in long-term foster care are at risk of experiencing poor social, emotional, behavioural and educational outcomes. Moreover, these placements have a significantly greater chance of breaking down compared to those involving children. This article critically evaluates the factors associated with this particular outcome. It was carried out through a literature review conducted by a social work practitioner in one Health and Social Care Trust in Northern Ireland. The findings evidenced that, apart from overriding safety concerns, placement breakdown was not a one-off event but rather a complex process involving the interplay between a range of dynamic risk and protective factors over time, operating in the wider context of the young person’s history and life experiences. The significance of these findings for social work practitioners is finally considered by identifying key theories to inform understanding and intervention.

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We present grizP1 light curves of 146 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia; 0.03 < z < 0.65) discovered during the first 1.5 yr of the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. The Pan-STARRS1 natural photometric system is determined by a combination of on-site measurements of the instrument response function and observations of spectrophotometric standard stars. We find that the systematic uncertainties in the photometric system are currently 1.2% without accounting for the uncertainty in the Hubble Space Telescope Calspec definition of the AB system. A Hubble diagram is constructed with a subset of 113 out of 146 SNe Ia that pass our light curve quality cuts. The cosmological fit to 310 SNe Ia (113 PS1 SNe Ia + 222 light curves from 197 low-z SNe Ia), using only supernovae (SNe) and assuming a constant dark energy equation of state and flatness, yields w = -1.120+0.360-0.206(Stat)+0.2690.291(Sys). When combined with BAO+CMB(Planck)+H0, the analysis yields ΩM = 0.280+0.0130.012 and w = -1.166+0.072-0.069 including all identified systematics. The value of w is inconsistent with the cosmological constant value of -1 at the 2.3σ level. Tension endures after removing either the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) or the H0 constraint, though it is strongest when including the H0 constraint. If we include WMAP9 cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints instead of those from Planck, we find w = -1.124+0.083-0.065, which diminishes the discord to <2σ. We cannot conclude whether the tension with flat ΛCDM is a feature of dark energy, new physics, or a combination of chance and systematic errors. The full Pan-STARRS1 SN sample with ∼three times as many SNe should provide more conclusive results.

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The progenitors of many Type II core-collapse supernovae (SNe) have now been identified directly on pre-discovery imaging. Here, we present an extensive search for the progenitors of Type Ibc SNe in all available pre-discovery imaging since 1998. There are 12 Type Ibc SNe with no detections of progenitors in either deep ground-based or Hubble Space Telescope archival imaging. The deepest absolute BVR magnitude limits are between -4 and - 5 mag. We compare these limits with the observed Wolf-Rayet population in the Large Magellanic Cloud and estimate a 16 per cent probability that we have failed to detect such a progenitor by chance. Alternatively, the progenitors evolve significantly before core-collapse or we have underestimated the extinction towards the progenitors. Reviewing the relative rates and ejecta mass estimates from light-curve modelling of Ibc SNe, we find both incompatible with Wolf-Rayet stars with initial masses >25 M⊙ being the only progenitors. We present binary evolution models that fit these observational constraints. Stars in binaries with initial masses ≲ 20 M⊙ lose their hydrogen envelopes in binary interactions to become low-mass helium stars. They retain a low-mass hydrogen envelope until ≈104 yr before core-collapse; hence, it is not surprising that Galactic analogues have been difficult to identify.

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Ovarian cancer is very treatable in the early stages of disease; however, it is usually detected in the later stages, at which time, treatment is no longer as effective. If discovered early (Stage I), there is a 90% chance of five-year survival. Therefore, it is imperative that early-stage biomarkers are identified to enhance the early detection of ovarian cancer. Cancer-testis antigens (CTAs), such as Per ARNT SIM (PAS) domain containing 1 (PASD1), are unique in that their expression is restricted to immunologically restricted sites, such as the testis and placenta, which do not express MHC class I, and cancer, making them ideally positioned to act as targets for immunotherapy as well as potential biomarkers for cancer detection where expressed. We examined the expression of PASD1a and b in a number of cell lines, as well as eight healthy ovary samples, eight normal adjacent ovarian tissues, and 191 ovarian cancer tissues, which were predominantly stage I (n = 164) and stage II (n = 14) disease. We found that despite the positive staining of skin cancer, only one stage Ic ovarian cancer patient tissue expressed PASD1a and b at detectable levels. This may reflect the predominantly stage I ovarian cancer samples examined. To examine the restriction of PASD1 expression, we examined endometrial tissue arrays and found no expression in 30 malignant tumor tissues, 23 cases of hyperplasia, or 16 normal endometrial tissues. Our study suggests that the search for a single cancer-testes antigen/biomarker that can detect early ovarian cancer must continue.

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Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is the fourth leading cause of cancer death and has an extremely poor prognosis: The 5-year survival probability is less than 5% for all stages. The only chance for cure or longer survival is surgical resection; however, only 10% to 20% of patients have resectable disease. Although surgical techniques have improved, most who undergo complete resection experience a recurrence. Adjuvant systemic therapy reduces the recurrence rate and improves outcomes. There is a potential role for radiation therapy as part of treatment for locally advanced disease, although its use in both the adjuvant and neoadjuvant settings remains controversial. Palliative systemic treatment is the only option for patients with metastatic disease. To date, however, only the gemcitabine plus erlotinib combination, and recently the FOLFIRINOX regimen, have been associated with relatively small but statistically significant improvements in OS when compared directly with gemcitabine alone. Although several meta-analyses have suggested a benefit associated with combination chemotherapy, whether this benefit is clinically meaningful remains unclear, particularly in light of the enhanced toxicity associated with combination regimens. There is growing evidence that the exceptionally poor prognosis in PC is caused by the tumor's characteristic abundant desmoplastic stroma that plays a critical role in tumor cell growth, invasion, metastasis, and chemoresistance. Carefully designed clinical trials that include translational analysis will provide a better understanding of the tumor biology and its relation to the host stromal cells. Future directions will involve testing of new targeted agents, understanding the pharmacodynamics of our current targeted agents, searching for predictive and prognostic biomarkers, and exploring the efficacy of different combinations strategies.

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What is meant by the term random? Do we understand how to identify which type of randomisation to use in our future research projects? We, as researchers, often explain randomisation to potential research participants as being a 50/50 chance of selection to either an intervention or control group, akin to drawing numbers out of a hat. Is this an accurate explanation? And are all methods of randomisation equal? This paper aims to guide the researcher through the different techniques used to randomise participants with examples of how they can be used in educational research.