Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries

Objective: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies.

Methods: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed.

Results: In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m2 for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol.

Conclusions: CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

Climate change response in Europe: What's the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries

Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities' climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Growing Tall but Unequal: New Findings and New Background Evidence on Anthropometric Welfare in 156 Countries, 1810–1989

This is the first initiative to collate the entire body of anthropometric evidence during the 19th and 20th centuries, on a global scale. By providing a comprehensive dataset on global height developments we are able to emphasize an alternative view of the history of human well-being and a basis for understanding characteristics of well-being in 156 countries, 1810–1989.

Party agency and the religious-secular cleavage in post-Communist countries: The case of Romania

Research focusing on several post-communist countries has found evidence of social cleavage effects on political behaviour similar to those found in Western Europe. In some post-communist countries, however, social cleavage effects appear far weaker (if at all). To understand why this is the case, I perform a case study of Romania, focusing on the religious–secular cleavage. Drawing upon research that emphasises the role of parties in forming cleavages, I argue that the reason for the absence of social cleavage effects is due to party competition for the same group of voters by parties from opposing ends of the ideological spectrum. By shifting their positions, some parties have prevented the appearance of cleavages by shaping individuals' perceptions of the parties and, in doing so, have even altered individuals' own left–right self-placements.

Civil Society Aid to Post-Communist Countries

A major debate within foreign aid literature is whether civil society can be ‘purchased’ through outside assistance.We test this proposition by exploring the influence of aid provided by the United States Agency for International
Development on post-communist civil rights environments. A review of research critical of international assistance highlights the risk of unsustainability, polarization and dependence among recipient civic organizations.We argue that
a more effective stimulant is socio-economic growth, which stimulates committed constituencies, higher citizen expectations and pressure on the state to protect civil freedoms. Using cross-sectional, time-series data from 27
post-communist countries, we find no evidence that aid independently promotes stronger civil rights environments but that economic growth produces substantial improvements. Further, any aid effectiveness appears to be conditional on economic strength.We conclude that developmental organizations should reassess how and where civil society aid is targeted.

After the Male Breadwinner Model? Childcare Services and the Division of Labor in European Countries

Fundamental reforms in childcare services appear to have eroded traditional
support to the male breadwinner model across European states. There has been a strong debate about the direction of these changes, and the ways in which childcare services can alter the division of labor and promote gender equality. This paper deals with these issues by using fuzzy set ideal-type analysis to assess the conformity of childcare service provisions in European economies to Fraser’s four ideal typical models: male breadwinner, caregiver parity, universal breadwinner, and universal caregiver. We find that there is resilience of traditional gender roles in the majority of European countries, while there are different variants of the universal breadwinner shaping different forms of childcare policies. The more equalitarian universal caregiver model maintains its utopian character.

Patient safety and communication: A new assessment for doctors trained in countries where language differs from that of the host country: Results of a pilot using a domain-based assessment

Objective

Global migration of healthcare workers places responsibility on employers to comply with legal employment rights whilst ensuring patient safety remains the central goal. We describe the pilot of a communication assessment designed for doctors who trained and communicated with patients and colleagues in a different language from that of the host country. It is unique in assessing clinical communication without assessing knowledge.

A 14-station OSCE was developed using a domain-based marking scheme, covering professional communication and English language skills (speaking, listening, reading and writing) in routine, acute and emotionally challenging contexts, with patients, carers and healthcare teams. Candidates (n = 43), non-UK trained volunteers applying to the UK Foundation Programme, were provided with relevant station information prior to the exam.

The criteria for passing the test included achieving the pass score and passing 10 or more of the 14 stations. Of the 43 candidates, nine failed on the station criteria. Two failed the pass score and also the station criteria. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.866.

This pilot tested ‘proof of concept’ of a new domain-based communication assessment for non-UK trained doctors.

The test would enable employers and regulators to verify communication competence and safety in clinical contexts, independent of clinical knowledge, for doctors who trained in a language different from that of the host country.

Technological Learning in Developing Countries

Technological learning refers to the learning processes involved in improving the productive capabilities of an enterprise, sector or economy to enable it to produce higher quality goods or services with increasing levels of efficiency. Approaches to the study of technological learning include case studies of particular countries, sectors and firms; measures of export sophistication; and composite indicators of innovation and competitiveness. The present review draws on these approaches to provide an overview of the policies and practices that have been successful in different regions (East-Asia and Latin America) ; contexts (import substitution and liberalization) ; sectors (pulp and paper, IT services, electronics and passenger cars); and firms (Embrear and Lenovo). While it is clear that there is strong complementarity between domestic technological capability and the ability to absorb foreign technology, there is no simple policy recipe which is appropriate for all times, industries or places. Technological learning builds on and is shaped by what is already known. It requires time, space and resources all of which are influenced by the wider domestic and international context. The current international context is challenging but countries and firms have to find ways of moving forward despite the limited strategy space.

Interventions Targeting Child Undernutrition in Developing Countries May Be Undermined by Dietary Exposure to Aflatoxin

Child undernutrition, a form of malnutrition, is a major public health burden in developing countries. Supplementation interventions targeting the major micronutrient deficiencies have only reduced the burden of child undernutrition to a certain extent, indicating that there are other underlying determinants that need addressed. Aflatoxin exposure, which is also highly prevalent in developing countries, may be considered to be an aggravating factor for child undernutrition. Increasing evidence suggests that aflatoxin exposure can occur in any stage of life including in utero through a trans-placental pathway and in early childhood (through contaminated weaning food and family food). Early life exposure to aflatoxin is associated with adverse effects on low birth weight, stunting, immune suppression and liver function damage. The mechanisms underlying impaired growth and aflatoxin exposure are still unclear but intestinal function damage, reduced immune function and alteration in the insulin-like growth factor axis caused by liver damage, are suggested hypotheses. Given the fact that both aflatoxin and child undernutrition are common in sub-Saharan Africa, effective interventions aimed at reducing undernutrition cannot be satisfactorily achieved until the interactive relationship between aflatoxin and child undernutrition is clearly understood, and an aflatoxin mitigation strategy has taken effect in those vulnerable mothers and children.

Comparing the relationship between stature and later life health in six low and middle income countries

This paper examines the relationship between stature and later life health in 6 emerging economies, each of which are expected to experience significant increases in the mean age of their populations over the coming decades. Using data from the WHO Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) and pilot data from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), I show that various measures of health are associated with height, a commonly used proxy for childhood environment. In the pooled sample, a 10 cm increase in height is associated with between a 2 and 3 percentage point increase in the probability of being in very good or good self-reported health, a 3 percentage point increase in the probability of reporting no difficulties with activities of daily living or instrumental activities of daily living, and between a fifth and a quarter of a standard deviation increase in grip strength and lung function. Adopting a methodology previously used in the research on inequality, I also summarise the height-grip strength gradient for each country using the concentration index, and provide a decomposition analysis.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.