Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

The utility of animal models in developing immunosuppressive agents

The immune system comprises an integrated network of cellular interactions. Some responses are predictable, while others are more stochastic. While in vitro the outcome of stimulating a single type of cell may be stereotyped and reproducible, in vivo this is often not the case. This phenomenon often merits the use of animal models in predicting the impact of immunosuppressant drugs. A heavy burden of responsibility lies on the shoulders of the investigator when using animal models to study immunosuppressive agents. The principles of the three R׳s: refine (less suffering,), reduce (lower animal numbers) and replace (alternative in vitro assays) must be applied, as described elsewhere in this issue. Well designed animal model experiments have allowed us to develop all the immunosuppressive agents currently available for treating autoimmune disease and transplant recipients. In this review, we examine the common animal models used in developing immunosuppressive agents, focusing on drugs used in transplant surgery. Autoimmune diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, are covered elsewhere in this issue. We look at the utility and limitations of small and large animal models in measuring potency and toxicity of immunosuppressive therapies.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Issues in the epidemiology and population-based screening of primary angle-closure glaucoma

Among Caucasians, it is well known that 75-95% of primary glaucoma is due to open-angle glaucoma (POAG), with angle-closure (PACG) comprising only a very small minority of cases. These figures are reversed among other groups such as Asians and Eskimos, where PACG makes up 80-90% of primary glaucoma. Among Eskimos, the prevalence of PACG has been reported as 2-8%, as compared to 0.1% among Caucasians. It appears that a population tendency toward shallow anterior chambers may explain the excess burden of PACG morbidity. Among Asians, the prevalence of PACG is intermediate between Caucasians and Eskimos. Existing biometrical data do not show a clear tendency toward shallower anterior chambers among Asians. PACG may be screened for on a population basis by means of various techniques that estimate axial or limbal anterior chamber depth, measure intraocular pressure, or evaluate the optic disc or visual fields. Demographic information and medical and family history will also be of great importance in screening for PACG in large populations. Groups at increased risk for the disease include women, individuals over 50, first-degree relatives of PACG probands, and hyperopes.

School and Community Screening Shows Malawi, Africa, to Have a High Prevalence of Latent Rheumatic Heart Disease

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the largest cardiac cause of morbidity and mortality in the world's youth. Early detection of RHD through echocardiographic screening in asymptomatic children may identify an early stage of disease, when secondary prophylaxis has the greatest chance of stopping disease progression. Latent RHD signifies echocardiographic evidence of RHD with no known history of acute rheumatic fever and no clinical symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the prevalence of latent RHD among children ages 5-16 in Lilongwe, Malawi.

DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study in which children ages 5 through 16 were screened for RHD using echocardiography.

SETTING: Screening was conducted in 3 schools and surrounding communities in the Lilongwe district of Malawi between February and April 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES: Children were diagnosed as having no, borderline, or definite RHD as defined by World Heart Federation criteria. The primary reader completed offline reads of all studies. A second reader reviewed all of the studies diagnosed as RHD, plus a selection of normal studies. A third reader served as tiebreaker for discordant diagnoses. The distribution of results was compared between gender, location, and age categories using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS: The prevalence of latent RHD was 3.4% (95% CI = 2.45, 4.31), with 0.7% definite RHD and 2.7% borderline RHD. There was no significant differences in prevalence between gender (P = .44), site (P = .6), urban vs. peri-urban (P = .75), or age (P = .79). Of those with definite RHD, all were diagnosed because of pathologic mitral regurgitation (MR) and 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve. Of those with borderline RHD, most met the criteria by having pathological MR (92.3%).

CONCLUSION: Malawi has a high rate of latent RHD, which is consistent with other results from sub-Saharan Africa. This study strongly supports the need for a RHD prevention and control program in Malawi.

Heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: review of the aetiology of heart failure and the role of point-of-care biomarker diagnostics

Within Africa, the burden of heart failure is significant. This arises from the increase in cardiovascular disease and associated risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, as well as causes of heart failure which are particular to sub-Saharan Africa, such as endomyocardial fibrosis. The lack of access to echocardiography and other imaging modalities, from a cost and technical perspective, combined with the predominantly rural nature of many countries with poor transport links, means that the vast majority of people never obtain an appropriate diagnosis. Similarly, research has been limited on the causes and treatment of heart failure in Africa and in particular endemic causes such as EMF and rheumatic heart disease. This review outlines the burden of heart failure in Africa and highlights the opportunity to expand diagnosis through the use of biomarkers, in particular natriuretic peptides. This builds on the success of point-of-care testing in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis which have been extensively deployed in community settings in Africa.

Metabolic signatures of Huntington's disease (HD): 1H NMR analysis of the polar metabolome in post mortem human brain

Huntington’s disease (HD) is an autosomal neurodegenerative disorder affecting approximately 5-10 persons per 100,000 worldwide. The pathophysiology of HD is not fully understood but the age of onset is known to be highly dependent on the number of CAG triplet repeats in the huntingtin gene. Using 1H NMR spectroscopy this study biochemically profiled 39 brain metabolites in post-mortem striatum (n=14) and frontal lobe (n=14) from HD sufferers and controls (n=28). Striatum metabolites were more perturbed with 15 significantly affected in HD cases, compared with only 4 in frontal lobe (P<0.05; q<0.3). The metabolite which changed most overall was urea which decreased 3.25-fold in striatum (P<0.01). Four metabolites were consistently affected in both brain regions. These included the neurotransmitter precursors tyrosine and L-phenylalanine which were significantly depleted by 1.55-1.58-fold and 1.48-1.54-fold in striatum and frontal lobe, respectively (P=0.02-0.03). They also included L-leucine which was reduced 1.54-1.69-fold (P=0.04-0.09) and myo-inositol which was increased 1.26-1.37-fold (P<0.01). Logistic regression analyses performed with MetaboAnalyst demonstrated that data obtained from striatum produced models which were profoundly more sensitive and specific than those produced from frontal lobe. The brain metabolite changes uncovered in this first 1H NMR investigation of human HD offer new insights into the disease pathophysiology. Further investigations of striatal metabolite disturbances are clearly warranted.