PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.

Understanding controls on cirque floor altitudes: insights from Kamchatka

Glacial cirques reflect former regions of glacier initiation, and are therefore used as indicators of past climate. One specific way in which palaeoclimatic information is obtained from cirques is by analysing their elevations, on the assumption that cirque floor altitudes are a proxy for climatically controlled equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) during former periods of small scale (cirque-type) glaciation. However, specific controls on cirque altitudes are rarely assessed, and the validity of using cirque floor altitudes as a source of palaeoclimatic information remains open to question. In order to address this, here we analyse the distribution of 3520 ice-free cirques on the Kamchatka Peninsula (eastern Russia), and assess various controls on their floor altitudes. In addition, we analyse controls on the mid-altitudes of 503 modern glaciers, currently identifiable on the peninsula, and make comparisons with the cirque altitude data. The main study findings are that cirque floor altitudes increase steeply inland from the Pacific, suggesting that moisture availability (i.e., proximity to the coastline) played a key role in regulating the altitudes at which former (cirque-forming) glaciers were able to initiate. Other factors, such as latitude, aspect, topography, geology and neo-tectonics seem to have played a limited (but not insignificant) role in regulating cirque floor altitudes, though south-facing cirques are typically higher than their north-facing equivalents, potentially reflecting the impact of prevailing wind directions (from the SSE) and/or variations in solar radiation on the altitudes at which former glaciers were able to initiate. Trends in glacier and cirque altitudes across the peninsula are typically comparable (i.e., values typically rise from both the north and south, inland from the Pacific coastline, and where glaciers/cirques are south-facing), yet the relationship with latitude is stronger for modern glaciers, and the relationship with distance to the coastline (and to a lesser degree with aspect) is notably weaker. These differences suggest that former glacier initiation (leading to cirque formation) was largely regulated by moisture availability (during winter months) and the control this exerted on accumulation; whilst the survival of modern glaciers is also strongly regulated by the variety of climatic and non climatic factors that control ablation. As a result, relationships between modern glacier mid-altitudes and peninsula-wide climatic trends are more difficult to identify than when cirque floor altitudes are considered (i.e., cirque-forming glaciers were likely in climatic equilibrium, whereas modern glaciers may not be).

Glacial cirques as palaeoenvironmental indicators: their potential and limitations

Glacial cirques are armchair-shaped erosional hollows, typified by steep headwalls and, often, overdeepened floors. They reflect former regions of glacier initiation, and their distribution is, therefore, linked to palaeoclimate. Because of this association, cirques can be analysed for the information they provide about past environments, an approach that has a strong heritage, and has seen resurgence over recent years. This paper provides a critical assessment of what cirques can tell us about past environments, and considers their reliability as palaeoenvironmental proxies. Specific focus is placed on information that can be obtained from consideration of cirque distribution, aspect, altitude, and morphometry. The paper highlights the fact that cirques potentially provide information about the style, duration and intensity of former glaciation, as well as information about past temperatures, precipitation gradients, cloud-cover and wind directions. In all, cirques are considered a valuable source of palaeoenvironmental information (if used judiciously), particularly as they are ubiquitous within formerly glaciated mountain ranges globally, thus making regional or even global scale studies possible. Furthermore, cirques often occupy remote and inaccessible regions where other palaeoenvironmental proxies may be limited or lacking.

Spatio-temporal feeding selection of red deer in a mountainous landscape

Understanding the dietary consumption and selection of wild populations of generalist herbivores is hampered by the complex array of factors. Here, we determine the influence of habitat, season, and animal density, sex, and age on the diet consumption and selection of 426 red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus) culled in Fiordland National Park, New Zealand. Our site differs from studies elsewhere both in habitat (evergreen angiosperm-dominated forests) and the intensity of hunting pressures. We predicted that deer would not consume forage in proportion to its relative availability, and that dietary consumption would change among and within years in response to hunting pressures that would also limit opportunities for age and sex segregation. Using canonical correspondence analysis, we evaluated the relative importance of different drivers of variation in diet consumption assessed from gut content and related these to available forage in the environment. We found that altitude explained the largest proportion of variation in diet consumption, reflecting the ability of deer to alter their consumption and selection in relation to their foraging grounds. Grasses formed a high proportion of the diet consumption, even for deer culled several kilometres from the alpine grasslands. In the winter months, when the alpine grasslands were largely inaccessible, less grass was eaten and deer resorted to woody plants that were avoided in the summer months. Surprisingly, there were no significant dietary differences between adults and juveniles and only subtle differences between the sexes. Sex-based differences in diet consumption are commonly observed in ungulate species and we suggest that they may have been reduced in our study area owing to decreased heterogeneity in available forage as the diversity of palatable species decreased under high deer browsing pressures, or by intense hunting pressure. © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Ecological Society of Australia.