Modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system

The environmental fate of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system is modelled with a high resolution Fate and Transport Ocean Model (FANTOM) that uses hydrodynamic model output from the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). Large amounts of POPs enter the North Sea from the surrounding highly populated, industrialised and agricultural countries. Major pathways to the North Sea are atmospheric deposition and river inputs, with additional contributions coming from bottom sediments and adjacent seas. The model domain covers the entire North Sea region, extending northward as far as the Shetland Islands, and includes adjacent basins such as the Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the westernmost part of the Baltic Sea. Model resolution (for both models) is 1.5’ latitude x 2.5’ longitude (approximately 3 km horizontal resolution) with 30 vertical levels. The POP model also has 20 sediment layers. Important model processes controlling the fate of POPs in the North Sea system are discussed. Results focus on Lindane gamma- HCH or gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane) and PCB 153.

The TORCH (towards a revolution in COPD health) survival study protocol

Only long-term home oxygen therapy has been shown in randomised controlled trials to increase survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). There have been no trials assessing the effect of inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators, alone or in combination, on mortality in patients with COPD, despite their known benefit in reducing symptoms and exacerbations. The "TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health" (TORCH) survival study is aiming to determine the impact of salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (SFC) combination and the individual components on the survival of COPD patients. TORCH is a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled study. Approximately 6,200 patients with moderate-to-severe COPD were randomly assigned to b.i.d. treatment with either SFC (50/500 microg), fluticasone propionate (500 microg), salmeterol (50 microg) or placebo for 3 yrs. The primary end-point is all-cause mortality; secondary end-points are COPD morbidity relating to rate of exacerbations and health status, using the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire. Other end-points include other mortality and exacerbation end-points, requirement for long-term oxygen therapy, and clinic lung function. Safety end-points include adverse events, with additional information on bone fractures. The first patient was recruited in September 2000 and results should be available in 2006. This paper describes the "TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health" study and explains the rationale behind it.

Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Optimal wafer site selection using forward selection component analysis

Reducing wafer metrology continues to be a major target in semiconductor manufacturing efficiency initiatives due to it being a high cost, non-value added operation that impacts on cycle-time and throughput. However, metrology cannot be eliminated completely given the important role it plays in process monitoring and advanced process control. To achieve the required manufacturing precision, measurements are typically taken at multiple sites across a wafer. The selection of these sites is usually based on a priori knowledge of wafer failure patterns and spatial variability with additional sites added over time in response to process issues. As a result, it is often the case that in mature processes significant redundancy can exist in wafer measurement plans. This paper proposes a novel methodology based on Forward Selection Component Analysis (FSCA) for analyzing historical metrology data in order to determine the minimum set of wafer sites needed for process monitoring. The paper also introduces a virtual metrology (VM) based approach for reconstructing the complete wafer profile from the optimal sites identified by FSCA. The proposed methodology is tested and validated on a wafer manufacturing metrology dataset. © 2012 IEEE.

Thermo-Mechanical Properties of Poly ε-Caprolactone/Poly L-Lactic Acid Blends: Addition of Nalidixic Acid and Polyethylene Glycol Additives Journal of the Mechanical Behavior of Biomedical Materials

The search for ideal biomaterials is still on-going for tissue regeneration. In this study, blends of Poly ε-caprolactone (PCL) with Poly l-lactic acid (PLLA), Nalidixic Acid (NA) and Polyethylene glycol (PEG) were prepared. Mechanical and thermal properties of the blends were investigated by tensile and flexural analysis, DSC, TGA, WXRD, MFI, BET, SEM and hot stage optical microscopy. Results showed that the loading of PLLA caused a significant decrease in tensile strength and almost total eradication of the elongation at break of PCL matrix, especially after PEG and NA addition. Increased stiffness was also noted with additional NA, PEG and PLLA, resulting in an increase in the flexural modulus of the blends.
Isothermal degradation indicated that bulk PCL, PLLA and the blends were thermally stable at 200°C for the duration of 2h making extrusion of the blends at this temperature viable. Morphological study showed that increasing the PLLA content and addition of the very low viscosity PEG and powder NA decreased the Melt Flow Indexer and increased the viscosity.
At the higher temperature the PLLA begins to soften and eventually melts allowing for increased flow and, coupling this with, the natural increase in MFI caused by temperature is enhanced further. The PEG and NA addition increased dramatically the pore volume which is important for cell growth and flow transport of nutrients and metabolic waste.

Prognostic significance of minichromosome maintenance proteins in breast cancer

A role for the minichromosome maintenance (MCM) proteins in cancer initiation and progression is slowly emerging. Functioning as a complex to ensure a single chromosomal replication per cell cycle, the six family members have been implicated in several neoplastic disease states, including breast cancer. Our study aim to investigate the prognostic significance of these proteins in breast cancer. We studied the expression of MCMs in various datasets and the associations of the expression with clinicopathological parameters. When considered alone, high level MCM4 overexpression was only weakly associated with shorter survival in the combined breast cancer patient cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.31; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.11-1.55; p = 0.001). On the other hand, when we studied all six components of the MCM complex, we found that overexpression of all MCMs was strongly associated with shorter survival in the same cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.75; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.31-2.34; p <0.001), suggesting these MCM proteins may cooperate to promote breast cancer progression. Indeed, their expressions were significantly correlated with each other in these cohorts. In addition, we found that increasing number of overexpressed MCMs was associated with negative ER status as well as treatment response. Together, our findings are reproducible in seven independent breast cancer cohorts, with 1441 patients, and suggest that MCM profiling could potentially be used to predict response to treatment and prognosis in breast cancer patients.

Commission 15: Physical Studies of Comets and Minor Planets

This report of the business meeting of Commission 15 at the 2009 IAU GA is based on notes provided by Walter Huebner, past president, and on the minutes taken by Daniel Boice, secretary of Commission 15 in the triennium 2006 to 2009, with additional notes from the current secretary, Daniel Hestroffer. The business meeting was split into two sessions, the first held on 5 August and the second held on 11 August. This report presents the minutes of the two Commission 15 business-meeting sessions held during General Assembly XXVII.

An Evaluation of Vaneless Diffuser Modelling Methods as a Means of Improving the Off-Design Performance Prediction of Centrifugal Compressors

An evaluation of existing 1-D vaneless diffuser design tools in the context of improving the off-design performance prediction of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors is described. A combination of extensive gas stand test data and single passage CFD simulations have been employed in order to permit evaluation of the different methods, allowing conclusions about the relative benefits and deficiencies of each of the different approaches to be determined. The vaneless diffuser itself has been isolated from the incumbent limitations in the accuracy of 1-D impeller modelling tools through development of a method to fully specify impeller exit conditions (in terms of mean quantities) using only standard test stand data with additional interstage static pressure measurements at the entrance to the diffuser. This method allowed a direct comparison between the test data and 1-D methods through sharing common inputs, thus achieving the aim of diffuser isolation.

Crucial to the accuracy of determining the performance of each of the vaneless diffuser configurations was the ability to quantify the presence and extent of the spanwise aerodynamic blockage present at the diffuser inlet section. A method to evaluate this critical parameter using CFD data is described herein, along with a correlation for blockage related to a new diffuser inlet flow parameter ⚡, equal to the quotient of the local flow coefficient and impeller tip speed Mach number. The resulting correlation permitted the variation of blockage with operating condition to be captured.

Variation in DNA repair genes XRCC3, XRCC4, XRCC5 and susceptibility to myeloma

Cytogenetic analysis in myeloma reveals marked chromosomal instability. Both widespread genomic alterations and evidence of aberrant class switch recombination, the physiological process that regulates maturation of the antibody response, implicate the DNA repair pathway in disease pathogenesis. We therefore assessed 27 SNPs in three genes (XRCC3, XRCC4 and XRCC5) central to DNA repair in patients with myeloma and controls from the EpiLymph study and from an Irish hospital registry (n = 306 cases, 263 controls). For the haplotype-tagging SNP (htSNP) rs963248 in XRCC4, Allele A was significantly more frequent in cases than in controls (86.4 versus 80.8%; odds ratio 1.51; 95% confidence interval 1.10-2.08; P = 0.0133), as was the AA genotype (74 versus 65%) (P = 0.026). Haplotype analysis was performed using Unphased for rs963248 in combination with additional SNPs in XRCC4. The strongest evidence of association came from the A-T haplotype from rs963248-rs2891980 (P = 0.008). For XRCC5, the genotype GG from rs1051685 was detected in 10 cases from different national populations but in only one control (P = 0.015). This SNP is located in the 3'-UTR of XRCC5. Overall, these data provide support for the hypothesis that common variation in the genes encoding DNA repair proteins contributes to susceptibility to myeloma.

Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

Disseminated tumor cells and their prognostic significance in nonmetastatic prostate cancer patients

Detection of pretreatment disseminated cells (pre-DTC) reflecting its homing to bone marrow (BM) in prostate cancer (PCa) might improve the current model to predict recurrence or survival in men with nonmetastatic disease despite of primary treatment. Thereby, pre-DTC may serve as an early prognostic biomarker. Post-treatment DTCs (post-DTC) finding may supply the clinician with additional predictive information about the possible course of PCa. To assess the prognostic impact of DTCs in BM aspirates sampled before initiation of primary therapy (pre-DTC) and at least 2 years after (post-DTC) to established prognostic factors and survival in patients with PCa. Available BM of 129 long-term follow-up patients with T1-3N0M0 PCa was assessed in addition to 100 BM of those in whom a pretreatment BM was sampled. Patients received either combined therapy [n = 81 (63%)], radiotherapy (RT) with different duration of hormone treatment (HT) or monotherapy with RT or HT alone [n = 48 (37%)] adapted to the criteria of the SPCG-7 trial. Mononuclear cells were deposited on slides according to the cytospin methodology and DTCs were identified by immunocytochemistry using the pancytokeratin antibodies AE1/AE3. The median age of men at diagnosis was 64.5 years (range 49.5-73.4 years). The median long-term follow-up from first BM sampling to last observation was 11 years. Categorized clinically relevant factors in PCa showed only pre-DTC status as the statistically independent parameter for survival in the multivariate analysis. Pre-DTCs homing to BM are significantly associated with clinically relevant outcome independent to the patient's treatment at diagnosis with nonmetastatic PCa.

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

Geotechnical monitoring using a combination of LIDAR, real-time dGPS, and electrical tomography to assess geotechnical risk of a coastal landslide.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). However the problematic geology; Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability manifested in both shallow debris flows and occasional massive rotational movements, creating a geotechnical risk to this highway. This paper describes how a variety of techniques are being used to both assess instability and monitor movement of these active slopes near one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration data. Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS), with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, accumulation and depletion. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters were characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDAR datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. A Differential Global Positioning System (dGPS) was also deployed on site to provide a real-time warning system for gross movements, which were also correlated with environmental conditions. Frequent electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys were also implemented to provide a better understanding of long-term changes in soil moisture and help to define the complex geology. The paper describes how the data obtained via a diverse range of methods has been combined to facilitate a more informed management regime of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

Coronal properties of planet-bearing stars

Context. Do extrasolar planets affect the activity of their host stars? Indications for chromospheric activity enhancement have been found for a handful of targets, but in the X-ray regime, conclusive observational evidence is still missing. Aims: We want to establish a sound observational basis to confirm or reject major effects of Star-Planet Interactions (SPI) in stellar X-ray emissions. Methods: We therefore conduct a statistical analysis of stellar X-ray activity of all known planet-bearing stars within 30 pc distance for dependencies on planetary parameters such as mass and semimajor axis. Results: In our sample, there are no significant correlations of X-ray luminosity or the activity indicator L_X/L_bol with planetary parameters which cannot be explained by selection effects. Conclusions: Coronal SPI seems to be a phenomenon which might only manifest itself as a strong effect for a few individual targets, but not to have a major effect on planet-bearing stars in general.

On the Security of Balanced Encoding Countermeasures

Most cryptographic devices should inevitably have a resistance against the threat of side channel attacks. For this, masking and hiding schemes have been proposed since 1999. The security validation of these countermeasures is an ongoing research topic, as a wider range of new and existing attack techniques are tested against these countermeasures. This paper examines the side channel security of the balanced encoding countermeasure, whose aim is to process the secret key-related data under a constant Hamming weight and/or Hamming distance leakage. Unlike previous works, we assume that the leakage model coefficients conform to a normal distribution, producing a model with closer fidelity to real-world implementations. We perform analysis on the balanced encoded PRINCE block cipher with simulated leakage model and also an implementation on an AVR board. We consider both standard correlation power analysis (CPA) and bit-wise CPA. We confirm the resistance of the countermeasure against standard CPA, however, we find with a bit-wise CPA that we can reveal the key with only a few thousands traces.