Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Identification of genetically and oceanographically distinct blooms of jellyfish

Reports of nuisance jellyfish blooms have increased worldwide during the last half-century, but the possible causes remain unclear.Apersistent difficulty lies in identifying whether blooms occur owing to local or regional processes. This issue can be resolved, in part, by establishing the geographical scales of connectivity among locations, which may be addressed using genetic analyses and oceanographic modelling. We used landscape genetics and Lagrangian modelling of oceanographic dispersal to explore patterns of connectivity in the scyphozoan jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus, which occurs en masse at locations in the Irish Sea and northeastern Atlantic. We found significant genetic structure distinguishing three populations, with both consistencies and inconsistencies with prevailing physical oceanographic patterns. Our analyses identify locations where blooms occur in apparently geographically isolated populations, locations where blooms may be the source or result of migrants, and a location where blooms do not occur consistently and jellyfish are mostly immigrant. Our interdisciplinary approach thus provides a means to ascertain the geographical origins of jellyfish in outbreaks, which may have wide utility as increased international efforts investigate jellyfish blooms. © 2013 The Authors.

Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

Extensive local-scale gene flow and long-term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine-scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15-150 km in south-west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation-with-migration analysis indicated extensive local-scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long-term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long-term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. (C) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106, 589597.

Compositional Divergence and Convergence in Local Communities and Spatially Structured Landscapes

Community structure depends on both deterministic and stochastic processes. However, patterns of community dissimilarity (e.g. difference in species composition) are difficult to interpret in terms of the relative roles of these processes. Local communities can be more dissimilar (divergence) than, less dissimilar (convergence) than, or as dissimilar as a hypothetical control based on either null or neutral models. However, several mechanisms may result in the same pattern, or act concurrently to generate a pattern, and much research has recently been focusing on unravelling these mechanisms and their relative contributions. Using a simulation approach, we addressed the effect of a complex but realistic spatial structure in the distribution of the niche axis and we analysed patterns of species co-occurrence and beta diversity as measured by dissimilarity indices (e.g. Jaccard index) using either expectations under a null model or neutral dynamics (i.e., based on switching off the niche effect). The strength of niche processes, dispersal, and environmental noise strongly interacted so that niche-driven dynamics may result in local communities that either diverge or converge depending on the combination of these factors. Thus, a fundamental result is that, in real systems, interacting processes of community assembly can be disentangled only by measuring traits such as niche breadth and dispersal. The ability to detect the signal of the niche was also dependent on the spatial resolution of the sampling strategy, which must account for the multiple scale spatial patterns in the niche axis. Notably, some of the patterns we observed correspond to patterns of community dissimilarities previously observed in the field and suggest mechanistic explanations for them or the data required to solve them. Our framework offers a synthesis of the patterns of community dissimilarity produced by the interaction of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community assembly in a spatially explicit and complex context.

Relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of soil animal community: a spatially explicit analysis of oribatid mites

1. Ecologists are debating the relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community structure. Although the high diversity and strong spatial structure of soil animal assemblages could provide ecologists with an ideal ecological scenario, surprisingly little information is available on these assemblages.
2. We studied species-rich soil oribatid mite assemblages from a Mediterranean beech forest and a grassland. We applied multivariate regression approaches and analysed spatial autocorrelation at multiple spatial scales using Moran's eigenvectors. Results were used to partition community variance in terms of the amount of variation uniquely accounted for by environmental correlates (e.g. organic matter) and geographical position. Estimated neutral diversity and immigration parameters were also applied to a soil animal group for the first time to simulate patterns of community dissimilarity expected under neutrality, thereby testing neutral predictions.
3. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the correlation between community structure and key environmental parameters disappeared: about 40% of community variation consisted of spatial patterns independent of measured environmental variables such as organic matter. Environmentally independent spatial patterns encompassed the entire range of scales accounted for by the sampling design (from tens of cm to 100 m). This spatial variation could be due to either unmeasured but spatially structured variables or stochastic drift mediated by dispersal. Observed levels of community dissimilarity were significantly different from those predicted by neutral models.
4. Oribatid mite assemblages are dominated by processes involving both deterministic and stochastic components and operating at multiple scales. Spatial patterns independent of the measured environmental variables are a prominent feature of the targeted assemblages, but patterns of community dissimilarity do not match neutral predictions. This suggests that either niche-mediated competition or environmental filtering or both are contributing to the core structure of the community. This study indicates new lines of investigation for understanding the mechanisms that determine the signature of the deterministic component of animal community assembly.

Identifying appropriate sampling and modelling approaches for analysing distributional patterns of Antarctic terrestrial arthropods along the Victoria Land latitudinal gradient

Biotic communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are relatively simple and often lack higher trophic levels (e. g. predators); thus, it is often assumed that species' distributions are mainly affected by abiotic factors such as climatic conditions, which change with increasing latitude, altitude and/or distance from the coast. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that factors other than geographical gradients affect the distribution of organisms with low dispersal capability such as the terrestrial arthropods. In Victoria Land (East Antarctica) the distribution of springtail (Collembola) and mite (Acari) species vary at scales that range from a few square centimetres to regional and continental. Different species show different scales of variation that relate to factors such as local geological and glaciological history, and biotic interactions, but only weakly with latitudinal/altitudinal gradients. Here, we review the relevant literature and outline more appropriate sampling designs as well as suitable modelling techniques (e. g. linear mixed models and eigenvector mapping), that will more adequately address and identify the range of factors responsible for the distribution of terrestrial arthropods in Antarctica.

Compositional divergence and convergence in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

In spite of the controversy that they have generated, neutral models provide ecologists with powerful tools for creating dynamic predictions about beta-diversity in ecological communities. Ecologists can achieve an understanding of the assembly rules operating in nature by noting when and how these predictions are met or not met. This is particularly valuable for those groups of organisms that are challenging to study under natural conditions (e.g., bacteria and fungi). Here, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities and performed an extensive literature search that allowed us to synthesize the information in 19 data sets with the minimal requisites for creating a null hypothesis in terms of community dissimilarity expected under neutral dynamics. In order to achieve this task, we calculated the first estimates of neutral parameters for several AMF communities from different ecosystems. Communities were shown either to be consistent with neutrality or to diverge or converge with respect to the levels of compositional dissimilarity expected under neutrality. These data support the hypothesis that divergence occurs in systems where the effect of limited dispersal is overwhelmed by anthropogenic disturbance or extreme biological and environmental heterogeneity, whereas communities converge when systems have the potential for niche divergence within a relatively homogeneous set of environmental conditions. Regarding the study cases that were consistent with neutrality, the sampling designs employed may have covered relatively homogeneous environments in which the effects of dispersal limitation overwhelmed minor differences among AMF taxa that would lead to environmental filtering. Using neutral models we showed for the first time for a soil microbial group the conditions under which different assembly processes may determine different patterns of beta-diversity. Our synthesis is an important step showing how the application of general ecological theories to a model microbial taxon has the potential to shed light on the assembly and ecological dynamics of communities.

Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: The radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle

The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are
central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic in?uences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insuf?cient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultra?ltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy byw45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed signi?cantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for ?gurative art, music and mythical imagery. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of shoulder joint and subacromial injections in cadavers.

OBJECTIVE:

"Blind" shoulder injections are often inaccurate and infiltrate untargeted structures. We tested a hypothesis that optimizing certain anatomical and positional factors would improve accuracy and reduce dispersal.

METHODS:

We evaluated one subacromial and one glenohumeral injection technique on cadavers.

RESULTS:

Mean accuracy was 91% for subacromial-targeted and 74 and 91% (worst- and best-case scenarios) for joint-targeted injections. Mean dispersal was 19% for subacromial-targeted and 16% for joint-targeted injections. All results bettered those reported previously.

CONCLUSION:

These "optimized" techniques might improve accuracy and limit dispersal of blind shoulder injections in clinical situations, benefiting efficacy and safety. However, evaluation is required in a clinical setting.

Queering the Family: Attitudes towards Lesbian and Gay Relationships and Families in Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland Life andTimes (NILT) Survey has asked questions on lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) issues since 1998. To date survey data have focused primarily on issues relating to prejudice, discrimination and tolerance. In 2012 a range of questions focussing more specifically on LGBT1 issues was included. This collected information on knowledge and perceptions of the LGBT population; personal prejudice; attitudes on equality issues; the visibility of LGBT people and family-related issues.

This update provides an overview of some of the information emerging from this data. It discusses attitudes towards same-sex relations and notable changes over time. Given recent political debate the primary focus of this paper is on attitudes relating to ‘queer’ marriage, family and parenting. We use the term ‘queer’ here to refer to ‘the diverse family structures formed by those with non-normative gender behaviours or sexual orientations’ (Bernstein and Reimann, 2001: 3). As previous updates have noted, there have been significant legislative and policy changes in this area (Jarman, 2010) and this continues with ongoing discussions regarding the development of a Sexual Orientation Strategy for Northern Ireland (Gray et al, 2013).

Directional modulation transmitter radiation pattern considerations

A pattern synthesis approach is applied to a directional modulation (DM) system. A systematic synthesis procedure is suggested which ensures optimal constellation patterns production along pre-specified communication directions, whereas simultaneously conserving energy dispersal in other directions. In this study, the properties of DM systems synthesised from Gaussian magnitude far-field radiation pattern templates are used to illustrate performance benefits with regards to DM bit error rate response compared with those achieved by a conventional steered array.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Phylogeographical analysis of two cold-tolerant plants with disjunct Lusitanian distributions does not support in situ survival during the last glaciation

Aim: We used a combination of modelling and genetic approaches to investigate whether Pinguicula grandiflora and Saxifraga spathularis, two species that exhibit disjunct Lusitanian distributions, may have persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 21 ka) in separate northern and southern refugia.

Location: Northern and eastern Spain and south-western Ireland.

Methods: Palaeodistribution modelling using maxent was used to identify putative refugial areas for both species at the LGM, as well as to estimate their distributions during the Last Interglacial (LIG, c. 120 ka). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from across both species' ranges was carried out using one chloroplast and three nuclear loci for each species.

Results: The palaeodistribution models identified very limited suitable habitat for either species during the LIG, followed by expansion during the LGM. A single, large refugium across northern Spain and southern France was postulated for P. grandiflora. Two suitable regions were identified for S. spathularis: one in northern Spain, corresponding to the eastern part of the species' present-day distribution in Iberia, and the other on the continental shelf off the west coast of Brittany, south of the limit of the British–Irish ice sheet. Phylogeographical analyses indicated extremely reduced levels of genetic diversity in Irish populations of P. grandiflora relative to those in mainland Europe, but comparable levels of diversity between Irish and mainland European populations of S. spathularis, including the occurrence of private hapotypes in both regions.

Main conclusions: Modelling and phylogeographical analyses indicate that P. grandiflora persisted through the LGM in a southern refugium, and achieved its current Irish distribution via northward dispersal after the retreat of the ice sheets. Although the results for S. spathularis are more equivocal, a similar recolonization scenario also seems the most likely explanation for the species' current distribution.