Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.

The relationship between adipokines and the onset of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men: The PRIME study

Aims: Epidemiological evidence suggests that adipokines may be associated with the onset of type 2 diabetes, but the evidence to date is limited and inconclusive. This study examined the association between adiponectin and leptin and the subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in a UK population based cohort of non-diabetic middle-aged men.
Methods: Baseline serum levels of leptin and adiponectin were measured in 1839 nondiabetic men aged 50–60 years who were participating in the prospective populationbased PRIME study. Over a mean follow-up of 14.7 years, new cases of type 2 diabetes were determined from self-reported clinical information with subsequent validation by general practitioners.
Results: 151 Participants developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. In Cox regression models adjusted for age, men in the top third of the leptin distribution were at increased risk (hazard ratio (HR) 4.27, 95% CI 2.67–6.83) and men in the top third of the adiponectin
distribution at reduced risk (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.14–0.42) relative to men in the bottom third. However, significance was lost for leptin after additional adjustment for BMI, waist to hip ratio, lifestyle factors and biological risk factors, including C-reactive protein (CRP). Further adjustment for HOMA-IR also resulted in loss of significance for adiponectin.
Conclusions: This study provides evidence that adipokines are associated with men’s future type 2 diabetes risk but not independently of other risk factors.

The association between spastic Cerebral Palsy, intellectual impairment, and gestational age: results from the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register

Background
Studies suggest a complex relationship between Cerebral Palsy sub-types, severity of impairment, and risk factors such as gestational age. To investigate these relationships, we conducted analyses on over 1,100 children included in the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register (NICPR) whose clinical CP subtype was Bilateral Spastic or Spastic Hemiplegia, and for whom information was available on the relevant variables.
Methods
We tested for the association between Bilateral and Hemiplegia subtypes, severe intellectual impairment, and gestational age (term; moderately preterm; very or extremely preterm) while controlling for gender, socio-economic deprivation, year of birth, and birth weight (using a standardized birth-weight score based on deviance from the birth weight average within each gestational age band). Severity of intellectual impairment was dichotomised (severe intellectual delay vs. moderate or no delay).
Results
Logistic regressions indicated a good fit of the model, and the predictors included explained approximately 19% of variability in the outcome. The results indicated a strong association between the Bilateral subtype and severe intellectual impairment: compared to children with the Hemiplegia subtype, those with Bilateral Spastic CP displayed a 10-fold increase in the odds of severe intellectual impairment. The results revealed a significant interaction between CP subtype and gestational age: for the Bilateral CP subtype, being born at term was associated with increased probability of severe intellectual impairment.
Discussion
Results are consistent with other studies (Hemming et al., 2008) in indicating that the likelihood of cognitive impairments increases with increasing gestational age at delivery of Bilateral Spastic CP children. The results are discussed in light of hypotheses that suggest the brain might be able to reorganise and compensate the effects of lesions and injuries when it is still less developed.