Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Optimization and Prediction of Mechanical and Thermal Properties of Graphene/LLDPE Nanocomposites by Using Artificial Neural Networks

The focus of this work is to develop the knowledge of prediction of the physical and chemical properties of processed linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/graphene nanoplatelets composites. Composites made from LLDPE reinforced with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 wt% grade C graphene nanoplatelets (C-GNP) were processed in a twin screw extruder with three different screw speeds and feeder speeds (50, 100, and 150 rpm). These applied conditions are used to optimize the following properties: thermal conductivity, crystallization temperature, degradation temperature, and tensile strength while prediction of these properties was done through artificial neural network (ANN). The three first properties increased with increase in both screw speed and C-GNP content. The tensile strength reached a maximum value at 4 wt% C-GNP and a speed of 150 rpm as this represented the optimum condition for the stress transfer through the amorphous chains of the matrix to the C-GNP. ANN can be confidently used as a tool to predict the above material properties before investing in development programs and actual manufacturing, thus significantly saving money, time, and effort.

A Hybrid Forward Algorithm for RBF Neural Network Construction

This paper proposes a novel hybrid forward algorithm (HFA) for the construction of radial basis function (RBF) neural networks with tunable nodes. The main objective is to efficiently and effectively produce a parsimonious RBF neural network that generalizes well. In this study, it is achieved through simultaneous network structure determination and parameter optimization on the continuous parameter space. This is a mixed integer hard problem and the proposed HFA tackles this problem using an integrated analytic framework, leading to significantly improved network performance and reduced memory usage for the network construction. The computational complexity analysis confirms the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, and the simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness

A novel continuous forward algorithm for RBF neural modelling

A continuous forward algorithm (CFA) is proposed for nonlinear modelling and identification using radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. The problem considered here is simultaneous network construction and parameter optimization, well-known to be a mixed integer hard one. The proposed algorithm performs these two tasks within an integrated analytic framework, and offers two important advantages. First, the model performance can be significantly improved through continuous parameter optimization. Secondly, the neural representation can be built without generating and storing all candidate regressors, leading to significantly reduced memory usage and computational complexity. Computational complexity analysis and simulation results confirm the effectiveness.

Improving neural network training solutions using regularisation

This paper describes the application of regularisation to the training of feedforward neural networks, as a means of improving the quality of solutions obtained. The basic principles of regularisation theory are outlined for both linear and nonlinear training and then extended to cover a new hybrid training algorithm for feedforward neural networks recently proposed by the authors. The concept of functional regularisation is also introduced and discussed in relation to MLP and RBF networks. The tendency for the hybrid training algorithm and many linear optimisation strategies to generate large magnitude weight solutions when applied to ill-conditioned neural paradigms is illustrated graphically and reasoned analytically. While such weight solutions do not generally result in poor fits, it is argued that they could be subject to numerical instability and are therefore undesirable. Using an illustrative example it is shown that, as well as being beneficial from a generalisation perspective, regularisation also provides a means for controlling the magnitude of solutions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A fast method for fuzzy neural modeling and refinement

In the identification of complex dynamic systems using fuzzy neural networks, one of the main issues is the curse of dimensionality, which makes it difficult to retain a large number of system inputs or to consider a large number of fuzzy sets. Moreover, due to the correlations, not all possible network inputs or regression vectors in the network are necessary and adding them simply increases the model complexity and deteriorates the network generalisation performance. In this paper, the problem is solved by first proposing a fast algorithm for selection of network terms, and then introducing a refinement procedure to tackle the correlation issue. Simulation results show the efficacy of the method.

Neural network forecasts of input-output technology

A significant part of the literature on input-output (IO) analysis is dedicated to the development and application of methodologies forecasting and updating technology coefficients and multipliers. Prominent among such techniques is the RAS method, while more information demanding econometric methods, as well as other less promising ones, have been proposed. However, there has been little interest expressed in the use of more modern and often more innovative methods, such as neural networks in IO analysis in general. This study constructs, proposes and applies a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN) with the purpose of forecasting IO technology coefficients and subsequently multipliers. The RAS method is also applied on the same set of UK IO tables, and the discussion of results of both methods is accompanied by a comparative analysis. The results show that the BPN offers a valid alternative way of IO technology forecasting and many forecasts were more accurate using this method. Overall, however, the RAS method outperformed the BPN but the difference is rather small to be systematic and there are further ways to improve the performance of the BPN.

Incremental learning from stream data

Recent years have witnessed an incredibly increasing interest in the topic of incremental learning. Unlike conventional machine learning situations, data flow targeted by incremental learning becomes available continuously over time. Accordingly, it is desirable to be able to abandon the traditional assumption of the availability of representative training data during the training period to develop decision boundaries. Under scenarios of continuous data flow, the challenge is how to transform the vast amount of stream raw data into information and knowledge representation, and accumulate experience over time to support future decision-making process. In this paper, we propose a general adaptive incremental learning framework named ADAIN that is capable of learning from continuous raw data, accumulating experience over time, and using such knowledge to improve future learning and prediction performance. Detailed system level architecture and design strategies are presented in this paper. Simulation results over several real-world data sets are used to validate the effectiveness of this method.