Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

Comorbidities and current smoking status amongst patients starting renal replacement therapy in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 2003 to 2008: national and centre-specific analyses

Introduction: The prevalence of comorbidities in incident renal replacement therapy (RRT) patients changes with age and varies between ethnic groups. This study describes these associations and the independent effect of comorbidities on outcomes. Methods: Adult patients starting RRT between 2003 and 2008 in centres reporting to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) with data on comorbidity (n ¼ 14,909) were included. The UKRR studied the association of comorbidity with patient demographics, treatment modality, haemoglobin, renal function at start of RRT and subsequent listing for kidney transplantation. The relationship between comorbidities and mortality at 90 days and one year after 90 days from start of RRT was explored using Cox regression. Results: Completeness of comorbidity data was 40.0% compared with 54.3% in 2003. Of patients with data, 53.8% had one or more comorbidities. Diabetes mellitus and ischaemic heart disease were the most common conditions seen in 30.1% and 22.7% of patients respectively. Current smoking was recorded for 14.5% of incident RRT patients in the 6-year period. Comorbidities became more common with increasing age in all ethnic groups although the difference between the 65–74 and 75+ age groups was not significant. Within each age group, South Asians and Blacks had lower rates of comorbidity, despite higher rates of diabetes mellitus. In multivariate survival analysis, malignancy and ischaemic/neuropathic ulcers were the strongest independent predictors of poor survival at 1 year after 90 days from the start of RRT. Conclusion: Differences in prevalence of comorbid illnesses in incident RRT patients may reflect variation in access to health care or competing risk prior to commencing treatment. At the same time, smoking rates remained high in this ‘at risk’ population. Further work on this and ways to improve comorbidity reporting should be priorities for 2010–11.

Organising for growth:Irish state administration 1958-2008

This paper analyses some key features of Irish public administration as it has developed since the foundation of the state, paying particular attention to the period from the late 1950s onward. During these decades, notwithstanding successive waves of concern expressed over the need for public sector reform, the evidence suggests an underlying lack of coherence in the evolution of the public administrationsystem that resulted in a poor capacity for effective policy coordination. Yet the drive toward economic modernisation also resulted in the creation of new state competence to support industrial development both directly and indirectly. These changes can be tracked organisationally, drawing on the database of the IRCHSS-funded Mapping the Irish State project.

Economic Vulnerability and the Severity of Debt Problems::An Analysis of the Irish EU-SILC 2008

In this article, using Ireland where debt issues are of particular salience, as a test case, we seek to locate over-indebtedness and the severity of debt problems in the context of the broader economic circumstances of households. In doing so, we first identify an economically vulnerable segment of households and then explore the debt experience of vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Our analysis reveals a striking contrast between the debt experiences of less than one in five households defined as economically vulnerable and all others. Financial exclusion, relating to access to a bank account and a credit card, was found to increase debt levels. However, such effects were modest. The impact of economic vulnerability seems to be largely a consequence of its relationship to a wide
range of socio-economic attributes and circumstances. The manner in which a potential debt crisis
unfolds will be shaped by the broader socio-economic structuring of life-chances. Any attempt to
respond to such problems by concentrating on financial exclusion or household behaviour or, indeed,
triggering factors without taking the wider social structuring of economic vulnerability is likely to be
both seriously misguided and largely ineffective.

Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.