The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

This paper synthesizes and discusses the spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological sites in Ireland, spanning the Neolithic period and the Bronze Age transition (4300–1900 cal BC), in order to explore the timing and implications of the main changes that occurred in the archaeological record of that period. Large amounts of new data are sourced from unpublished developer-led excavations and combined with national archives, published excavations and online databases. Bayesian radiocarbon models and context- and sample-sensitive summed radiocarbon probabilities are used to examine the dataset. The study captures the scale and timing of the initial expansion of Early Neolithic settlement and the ensuing attenuation of all such activity—an apparent boom-and-bust cycle. The Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods are characterised by a resurgence and diversification of activity. Contextualisation and spatial analysis of radiocarbon data reveals finer-scale patterning than is usually possible with summed-probability approaches: the boom-and-bust models of prehistoric populations may, in fact, be a misinterpretation of more subtle demographic changes occurring at the same time as cultural change and attendant differences in the archaeological record.

Human behaviour recognition in data-scarce domains

This paper presents the novel theory for performing multi-agent activity recognition without requiring large training corpora. The reduced need for data means that robust probabilistic recognition can be performed within domains where annotated datasets are traditionally unavailable. Complex human activities are composed from sequences of underlying primitive activities. We do not assume that the exact temporal ordering of primitives is necessary, so can represent complex activity using an unordered bag. Our three-tier architecture comprises low-level video tracking, event analysis and high-level inference. High-level inference is performed using a new, cascading extension of the Rao–Blackwellised Particle Filter. Simulated annealing is used to identify pairs of agents involved in multi-agent activity. We validate our framework using the benchmarked PETS 2006 video surveillance dataset and our own sequences, and achieve a mean recognition F-Score of 0.82. Our approach achieves a mean improvement of 17% over a Hidden Markov Model baseline.

Prior knowledge transfer across transcriptional data sets and technologies using compositional statistics yields new mislabelled ovarian cell line

Here, we describe gene expression compositional assignment (GECA), a powerful, yet simple method based on compositional statistics that can validate the transfer of prior knowledge, such as gene lists, into independent data sets, platforms and technologies. Transcriptional profiling has been used to derive gene lists that stratify patients into prognostic molecular subgroups and assess biomarker performance in the pre-clinical setting. Archived public data sets are an invaluable resource for subsequent in silico validation, though their use can lead to data integration issues. We show that GECA can be used without the need for normalising expression levels between data sets and can outperform rank-based correlation methods. To validate GECA, we demonstrate its success in the cross-platform transfer of gene lists in different domains including: bladder cancer staging, tumour site of origin and mislabelled cell lines. We also show its effectiveness in transferring an epithelial ovarian cancer prognostic gene signature across technologies, from a microarray to a next-generation sequencing setting. In a final case study, we predict the tumour site of origin and histopathology of epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines. In particular, we identify and validate the commonly-used cell line OVCAR-5 as non-ovarian, being gastrointestinal in origin. GECA is available as an open-source R package.

Compositional data analysis of Holocene sediments from the West Bengal Sundarbans, India: Geochemical proxies for grain-size variability in a delta environment

This paper is part of a special issue of Applied Geochemistry focusing on reliable applications of compositional multivariate statistical methods. This study outlines the application of compositional data analysis (CoDa) to calibration of geochemical data and multivariate statistical modelling of geochemistry and grain-size data from a set of Holocene sedimentary cores from the Ganges-Brahmaputra (G-B) delta. Over the last two decades, understanding near-continuous records of sedimentary sequences has required the use of core-scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry, for both terrestrial and marine sedimentary sequences. Initial XRF data are generally unusable in ‘raw-format’, requiring data processing in order to remove instrument bias, as well as informed sequence interpretation. The applicability of these conventional calibration equations to core-scanning XRF data are further limited by the constraints posed by unknown measurement geometry and specimen homogeneity, as well as matrix effects. Log-ratio based calibration schemes have been developed and applied to clastic sedimentary sequences focusing mainly on energy dispersive-XRF (ED-XRF) core-scanning. This study has applied high resolution core-scanning XRF to Holocene sedimentary sequences from the tidal-dominated Indian Sundarbans, (Ganges-Brahmaputra delta plain). The Log-Ratio Calibration Equation (LRCE) was applied to a sub-set of core-scan and conventional ED-XRF data to quantify elemental composition. This provides a robust calibration scheme using reduced major axis regression of log-ratio transformed geochemical data. Through partial least squares (PLS) modelling of geochemical and grain-size data, it is possible to derive robust proxy information for the Sundarbans depositional environment. The application of these techniques to Holocene sedimentary data offers an improved methodological framework for unravelling Holocene sedimentation patterns.

Maintaining legacy data: saving Belfast Harbour (UK) tide-gauge data (1902-2010)

Tide gauge data are identified as legacy data given the radical transition between observation method and required output format associated with tide gauges over the 20th-century. Observed water level variation through tide-gauge records is regarded as the only significant basis for determining recent historical variation (decade to century) in mean sea-level and storm surge. There are limited tide gauge records that cover the 20th century, such that the Belfast (UK) Harbour tide gauge would be a strategic long-term (110 years) record, if the full paper-based records (marigrams) were digitally restructured to allow for consistent data analysis. This paper presents the methodology of extracting a consistent time series of observed water levels from the 5 different Belfast Harbour tide gauges’ positions/machine types, starting late 1901. Tide-gauge data was digitally retrieved from the original analogue (daily) records by scanning the marigrams and then extracting the sequential tidal elevations with graph-line seeking software (Ungraph™). This automation of signal extraction allowed the full Belfast series to be retrieved quickly, relative to any manual x–y digitisation of the signal. Restructuring variably lengthed tidal data sets to a consistent daily, monthly and annual file format was undertaken by project-developed software: Merge&Convert and MergeHYD allow consistent water level sampling both at 60 min (past standard) and 10 min intervals, the latter enhancing surge measurement. Belfast tide-gauge data have been rectified, validated and quality controlled (IOC 2006 standards). The result is a consistent annual-based legacy data series for Belfast Harbour that includes over 2 million tidal-level data observations.

Tracing the Chromospheric and Coronal Magnetic Field with AIA, IRIS, IBIS, and ROSA Data

The aim of this study is to explore the suitability of chromospheric images for magnetic modeling of active regions. We use high-resolutionimages (≈0.2"-0.3"), from the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer in the Ca II 8542 Å line, the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere instrument in the Hα 6563Å line, the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph in the 2796Å line, and compare non-potential magnetic field models obtainedfrom those chromospheric images with those obtained from images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in coronal (171 Å, etc.) and inchromospheric (304 Å) wavelengths. Curvi-linear structures are automatically traced in those images with the OCCULT-2 code, to which we forward-fitted magnetic field lines computed with the Vertical-current Approximation Nonlinear Force Free Field code. We find that the chromospheric images: (1) reveal crisp curvi-linear structures (fibrils, loop segments, spicules) that are extremely well-suited for constraining magnetic modeling; (2) that these curvi-linear structures arefield-aligned with the best-fit solution by a median misalignment angle of μ2 ≈ 4°–7° (3) the free energy computed from coronal data may underestimate that obtained from chromospheric data by a factor of ≈2–4, (4) the height range of chromospheric features is confined to h≲4000 km, while coronal features are detected up to h = 35,000 km; and (5) the plasma-β parameter is β ≈ 10^-5 - 10^-1 for all traced features. We conclude that chromospheric images reveal important magnetic structures that are complementary to coronal images and need to be included in comprehensive magnetic field models, something that is currently not accomodated in standard NLFFF codes.

Data for the co-expression and purification of human recombinant CaMKK2 in complex with calmodulin in Escherichia coli

Calcium/calmodulin-dependent kinase kinase 2 (CaMKK2) has been implicated in a range of conditions and pathologies from prostate to hepatic cancer. Here, we describe the expression in Escherichia coli and the purification protocol for the following constructs: full-length CaMKK2 in complex with CaM, CaMKK2 'apo', CaMKK2 (165-501) in complex with CaM, and the CaMKK2 F267G mutant. The protocols described have been optimized for maximum yield and purity with minimal purification steps required and the proteins subsequently used to develop a fluorescence-based assay for drug binding to the kinase, "Using the fluorescent properties of STO-609 as a tool to assist structure-function analyses of recombinant CaMKK2"

Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

A Data Driven Tool supported CLD Creation Approach

The creation of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) is a major phase in the System Dynamics (SD) life-cycle, since the created CLDs express dependencies and feedback in the system under study, as well as, guide modellers in building meaningful simulation models. The cre-ation of CLDs is still subject to the modeller's domain expertise (mental model) and her ability to abstract the system, because of the strong de-pendency on semantic knowledge. Since the beginning of SD, available system data sources (written and numerical models) have always been sparsely available, very limited and imperfect and thus of little benefit to the whole modelling process. However, in recent years, we have seen an explosion in generated data, especially in all business related domains that are analysed via Business Dynamics (BD). In this paper, we intro-duce a systematic tool supported CLD creation approach, which analyses and utilises available disparate data sources within the business domain. We demonstrate the application of our methodology on a given business use-case and evaluate the resulting CLD. Finally, we propose directions for future research to further push the automation in the CLD creation and increase confidence in the generated CLDs.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.