Semantics for possibilistic answer set programs: uncertain rules versus rules with uncertain conclusions

Although Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a powerful framework for declarative problem solving, it cannot in an intuitive way handle situations in which some rules are uncertain, or in which it is more important to satisfy some constraints than others. Possibilistic ASP (PASP) is a natural extension of ASP in which certainty weights are associated with each rule. In this paper we contrast two different views on interpreting the weights attached to rules. Under the first view, weights reflect the certainty with which we can conclude the head of a rule when its body is satisfied. Under the second view, weights reflect the certainty that a given rule restricts the considered epistemic states of an agent in a valid way, i.e. it is the certainty that the rule itself is correct. The first view gives rise to a set of weighted answer sets, whereas the second view gives rise to a weighted set of classical answer sets.

A practical taxonomy of methods and literature for managing uncertain spatial data in geographic information systems

Perfect information is seldom available to man or machines due to uncertainties inherent in real world problems. Uncertainties in geographic information systems (GIS) stem from either vague/ambiguous or imprecise/inaccurate/incomplete information and it is necessary for GIS to develop tools and techniques to manage these uncertainties. There is a widespread agreement in the GIS community that although GIS has the potential to support a wide range of spatial data analysis problems, this potential is often hindered by the lack of consistency and uniformity. Uncertainties come in many shapes and forms, and processing uncertain spatial data requires a practical taxonomy to aid decision makers in choosing the most suitable data modeling and analysis method. In this paper, we: (1) review important developments in handling uncertainties when working with spatial data and GIS applications; (2) propose a taxonomy of models for dealing with uncertainties in GIS; and (3) identify current challenges and future research directions in spatial data analysis and GIS for managing uncertainties.

Practice guidelines in clinical psychology: An uncertain future for a clinical profession

Practice guidelines have long been surrounded by controversy. Despite an almost instinctive outcry against these protocols among many clinicians, current versions provide therapists with considerable freedom in their practice. This paper examines the utility and possible negative evolution of such guidelines.

The basic principles of uncertain information fusion. An organised review of merging rules in different representation frameworks.

We propose and advocate basic principles for the fusion of incomplete or uncertain information items, that should apply regardless of the formalism adopted for representing pieces of information coming from several sources. This formalism can be based on sets, logic, partial orders, possibility theory, belief functions or imprecise probabilities. We propose a general notion of information item representing incomplete or uncertain information about the values of an entity of interest. It is supposed to rank such values in terms of relative plausibility, and explicitly point out impossible values. Basic issues affecting the results of the fusion process, such as relative information content and consistency of information items, as well as their mutual consistency, are discussed. For each representation setting, we present fusion rules that obey our principles, and compare them to postulates specific to the representation proposed in the past. In the crudest (Boolean) representation setting (using a set of possible values), we show that the understanding of the set in terms of most plausible values, or in terms of non-impossible ones matters for choosing a relevant fusion rule. Especially, in the latter case our principles justify the method of maximal consistent subsets, while the former is related to the fusion of logical bases. Then we consider several formal settings for incomplete or uncertain information items, where our postulates are instantiated: plausibility orderings, qualitative and quantitative possibility distributions, belief functions and convex sets of probabilities. The aim of this paper is to provide a unified picture of fusion rules across various uncertainty representation settings.

Women of an uncertain age: quantifying human capital accumulation in rural Ireland in the nineteenth century

Geary and Stark find that Ireland’s post-Famine per capita GDP converged with British levels, and that this convergence was largely due to total factor productivity growth rather than mass emigration. In this article, new long-run measurements of human capital accumulation in Ireland are devised in order to facilitate a better assessment of sources of this productivity growth, including the relative contribution of men and women. This is done by exploiting the frequency at which age data heap at round ages, widely interpreted as an indicator of a population’s basic numeracy skills. Because Földvári, van Leeuwen, and van Leeuwen-Li find that gender-specific trends in this measure derived from census returns are biased by who is reporting and recording the age information, any computed numeracy trends are corrected using data from prison and workhouse registers, sources in which women ostensibly self-reported their age. The findings show that rural Irish women born early in the nineteenth century had substantially lower levels of human capital than uncorrected census data would otherwise suggest. These results are large in magnitude and thus economically significant. The speed at which women converged is consistent with Geary and Stark’s interpretation of Irish economic history; Ireland probably graduated to Europe’s club of advanced economies thanks in part to rapid advances in female human capital.

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in foods: current evidence and potential consequences

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease in cattle, sheep and goats, may have a role in Crohn's disease in humans. Animals with Johne's disease shed viable MAP in their milk and faeces. The organism is also widely disseminated in the blood and tissues of infected animals. Consequently, transmission to humans via consumption of animal-derived foods is a distinct possibility. Milk, other dairy products, beef and water have been identified as possible food vehicles of transmission. To date, viable MAP has been cultured from raw cows', sheep and goats' milk, retail pasteurized cows' milk, and some retail cheeses in several countries during recent studies. MAP has not been isolated from retail beef to date, although limited testing has been carried out. The public health consequences, if any, of low numbers of viable MAP being periodically consumed by susceptible individuals are uncertain. An association between MAP and Crohn's disease is not proven, but neither can it be discounted on the basis of current evidence. A precautionary approach is therefore warranted in relation to the existence of MAP in food, and action is needed to reduce the prevalence of Johne's disease in the cattle population worldwide, in order to minimize public exposure to this potential human pathogen.

Endostatin modulates VEGF-mediated barrier dysfunction in the retinal microvascular endothelium

Recent evidence indicates that the anti-angiogenic peptide endostatin may modulate some of the vasomodulatory effects of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the retina, including reduction of blood retinal barrier function although it remains uncertain how endostatin promotes endothelial barrier properties. The current study has sought to examine how physiological levels of endostatin alters VEGF-induced inner BRB function using an in vitro model system and evaluation of occludin and ZO-1 regulatory responses. In addition, the ability of exogenous endostatin to regulate VEGF-mediated retinal vascular permeability in vivo was investigated.

Retinal microvascular endothelial cells (RMEC's) were exposed to various concentrations of endostatin. In parallel studies, RMEC monolayers were treated with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF165). Vasopermeability of RMEC monolayers and occludin expression were determined.

Blood retinal barrier integrity was quantified in mouse retina using Evans Blue assay following intravitreal delivery of VEGF165, endostatin or a VEGF/endostatin combination.

Endostatin increased the levels of expression of occludin whilst causing no significant change in FITC-dextran flux across the RMEC monolayer. Endostatin reversed the effects of VEGF165-enhanced permeability between microvascular endothelial cells and induced phosphorylation of occludin. Evans Blue leakage from retinas treated with VEGF was 2.0 fold higher than that of contra-lateral untreated eyes (P<0.05) while leakage of eyes from endostatin treated animals was unchanged. When eyes were injected with a combination of VEGF165 and endostatin there was a significant reduction in retinal vasopermeability when compared to VEGF-injected eyes (P<0.05).

We conclude that endostatin can promote integrity of the retinal endothelial barrier, possibly by preventing VEGF-mediated alteration of tight junction integrity. This suggests that endostatin may be of clinical benefit in ocular disorders where significant retinal vasopermeability changes are present.

The effect of anisotropic elasticity on the yielding characteristics of overconsolidated natural clay

Quantitative application of elastoplastic theory to the yielding behaviour of natural soils has always been uncertain. Part of the reason is that the theory was developed for reconstituted materials with isotropic structure, in contrast to natural soils that are usually anisotropic. The approach considered in this study assumes that pre-yielding behaviour is governed by the theory of linear anisotropic elasticity and that yield loci in the mean effective stress ( p') – deviator stress (q) plane are aligned approximately along the coefficient of earth pressure (K0) line. The assumption of a rotated yield locus associated with anisotropic elastic behaviour within the state boundary surface indicates that the elastic wall within the state boundary surface is inclined. The form of the state boundary surface has been determined mathematically in terms of anisotropic elastic and Cam-Clay soil parameters. Stress path tests were conducted on samples of Belfast Upper Boulder Clay removed from a depth of 28 m below ground surface. Good agreement was found between predicted and measured yield loci. The study also examined the influence of subsequent isotropic compression on the yielding characteristics of the natural clay. The indications are that the anisotropy developed during deposition disappears when the sample is loaded to a stress level at least twice the stress generated during the original deposition process. The methods developed in the paper have also been applied to test results reported previously on Winnipeg clay, and good agreement was obtained.

A peculiar metal-rich star, HD 135485

Local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) absolute and differential abundances are presented for a peculiar metal-rich B-type star, HD 135485. These suggest that HD 135485 has a general enrichment of similar to0.5 dex in all the metals observed (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, Ar, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe and Sr), except for nickel. The helium enhancement and hence hydrogen deficiency can account for less than or equal to 0.2 dex of this enhancement of metals, with the additional enhancement probably being representative of the progenitor gas. However, some of the metals appear to have greater enhancements, which may have occurred during the star's evolution. The significantly larger nitrogen abundance coupled with a modest helium enhancement observed in HD 135485 indicates that carbon- nitrogen (CN) processed material has possibly contaminated the stellar surface. Neon and carbon enhancements may indicate that helium core flashes have also occurred in HD 135485. Some of the iron-group elements (viz. Mn and Ni) appear to have similar abundance patterns to that of silicon Ap stars, but it is uncertain how these abundance patterns formed if they were not present in the progenitor gas. From a kinematical investigation it is unclear whether this star formed in a metal-rich region as implied by its chemical composition. From its position in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, HD 135485 would appear to be an evolved star lying close to or on the horizontal branch.

Ca II K observations of QSOs in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge

We describe medium-resolution spectroscopic observations taken with the ESO Multi-Mode Instrument (EMMI) in the CaII K line (lambda air = 3933.661 angstrom) towards 7 QSOs located in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge. At a spectral resolution R =lambda/Delta lambda = 6000, five of the sightlines have a signal-to-noise ( S/N) ratio of similar to 20 or higher. Definite Ca absorption due to Bridge material is detected towards 3 objects, with probable detection towards two other sightlines. Gas-phase CaII K Bridge and Milky Way abundances or lower limits for the all sightlines are estimated by the use of Parkes 21-cm H. emission line data. These data only have a spatial resolution of 14 arcmin compared with the optical observations which have milli-arcsecond resolution. With this caveat, for the three objects with sound CaII K detections, we find that the ionic abundance of CaII K relative to HI, A = log( N( CaK)/ N( HI)) for low- velocity Galactic gas ranges from - 8.3 to - 8.8 dex, with HI column densities varying from 3- 6 x 10(20) cm(-2). For Magellanic Bridge gas, the values of A are similar to 0.5 dex higher, ranging from similar to- 7.8 to - 8.2 dex, with N( HI) = 1- 5 x 1020 cm(-2). Higher values of A correspond to lower values of N( HI), although numbers are small. For the sightline towards B 0251 - 675, the Bridge gas has two different velocities, and in only one of these is CaII tentatively detected, perhaps indicating gas of a different origin or present-day characteristics ( such as dust content), although this conclusion is uncertain and there is the possibility that one of the components could be related to the Magellanic Stream. Higher signal-to-noise CaII K data and higher resolution H. data are required to determine whether A changes with N( HI) over the Bridge and if the implied difference in the metalicity of the two Bridge components towards B 0251-675 is real.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

'Superluminal' tunnelling as a weak measurement effect

We exploit the analogy between the transfer of a pulse across a scattering medium and Aharonov's weak measurements to resolve the long standing paradox between the impossibility to exceed the speed of light and the seemingly "superluminal" behavior of a tunneling particle in the barrier or a photon in a "fast-light" medium. We demonstrate that superluminality occurs when the value of the duration tau spent in the barrier is uncertain, whereas when tau is known accurately, no superluminal behavior is observed. In all cases only subluminal durations contribute to the transmission which precludes faster-than-light information transfer, as observed in a recent experiment.

Mutations affecting the Rossman fold of isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase are correlated with low-level mupirocin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus.

The isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase (ileS) gene was sequenced in toto from 9 and in part from 31 Staphylococcus aureus strains with various degrees of susceptibility to mupirocin. All strains for which the mupirocin MIC was greater than 8 µg/ml contained point mutations affecting the Rossman fold via Val-to-Phe changes at either residue 588 (V588F) or residue 631 (V631F). The importance of the V588F mutation was confirmed by an allele-specific PCR survey of 32 additional strains. Additional mutations of uncertain significance were found in residues clustered on the surface of the IleS protein.

Problems with identifying the '8200-year cold event' in terrestrial records of the Atlantic seaboard: a case study from Dooagh, Achill Island, Ireland.

The Northern Hemisphere cooling event 8200 years ago is believed to represent the last known major freshwater pulse into the North Atlantic as a result of the final collapse of the North American Laurentide ice sheet. This pulse of water is generally believed to have occurred independently of orbital variations and provides an analogue for predicted increases in high-latitude precipitation and ice melt as a result of anthropogenically driven future climate change. The precise timing, duration and magnitude of this event, however, are uncertain, with suggestions that the 100-yr meltwater cooling formed part of a longer-term cold period in the early Holocene. Here we undertook a multiproxy, high-resolution investigation of a peat sequence at Dooagh, Achill Island, on the west coast of Ireland, to determine whether the 8200-year cold event impacted upon the terrestrial vegetation immediately downwind of the proposed changes in the North Atlantic. We find clear evidence for an oscillation in the early Holocene using various measures of pollen, indicating a disruption in the vegetation leading to a grassland-dominated landscape, most probably driven by changes in precipitation rather than temperature. Radiocarbon dating was extremely problematic, however, with bulk peat samples systematically too young for the North Atlantic event, suggesting significant contamination from downward root penetration. The sustained disruption to vegetation over hundreds of years at Dooagh indicates the landscape was impacted by a long-term cooling event in the early Holocene, and not the single century length 8200-year meltwater event proposed in many other records in the North Atlantic region.