Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Ground-based detection of thermal emission from the exoplanet WASP-19b

We present an occultation of the newly discovered hot Jupiter system WASP-19, observed with the High Acuity Wide-field K-band Imager instrument on the VLT, in order to measure thermal emission from the planet's dayside at ~2µm. The light curve was analysed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to find the eclipse depth and the central transit time. The transit depth was found to be 0.366 +/- 0.072 per cent, corresponding to a brightness temperature of 2540 +/- 180 K. This is significantly higher than the calculated (zero-albedo) equilibrium temperature and indicates that the planet shows poor redistribution of heat to the night side, consistent with models of highly irradiated planets. Further observations are needed to confirm the existence of a temperature inversion and possibly molecular emission lines. The central eclipse time was found to be consistent with a circular orbit.

Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Microarray-based classifiers and prognosis models identify subgroups with distinct clinical outcomes and high risk of AML transformation of myelodysplastic syndrome

The diagnosis of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) currently relies primarily on the morphologic assessment of the patient's bone marrow and peripheral blood cells. Moreover, prognostic scoring systems rely on observer-dependent assessments of blast percentage and dysplasia. Gene expression profiling could enhance current diagnostic and prognostic systems by providing a set of standardized, objective gene signatures. Within the Microarray Innovations in LEukemia study, a diagnostic classification model was investigated to distinguish the distinct subclasses of pediatric and adult leukemia, as well as MDS. Overall, the accuracy of the diagnostic classification model for subtyping leukemia was approximately 93%, but this was not reflected for the MDS samples giving only approximately 50% accuracy. Discordant samples of MDS were classified either into acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or

An understanding of chemoselective hydrogenation on crotonaldehyde over Pt(111) in the free energy landscape: The microkinetics study based on first-principles calculations

Microkinetic model is developed in the free energy landscape based on density functional theory (DFT) to quantitatively investigate the reaction mechanism of chemoselective partial hydrogenation of crotonaldehyde to crotyl alcohol over Pt(1 1 1) at the temperature of 353 K. Three different methods (mobile, immobile and collision theory models) were carried out to obtain free energy barrier of adsorption/desorption processes. The results from mobile and collision theory models are similar. The calculated TOFs from both models are close to the experiment value. However, for the immobile model, in which the free energy barrier of desorption approaches the energy barrier, the calculated TOF is 2 orders of magnitude lower than the other models. The difficulty of adsorption/ desorption may be overestimated in the immobile model. In addition, detailed analyses show that for the surface hydrogenation elementary steps, the entropy and internal energy effects are small under the reaction condition, while the zero-point-energy (ZPE) correction is significant, especially for the multi-step hydrogenation reaction. The total energy with the ZPE correction approaches to the full free energy calculation for the surface reaction under the reaction condition. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response characteristics of optical sensors for oxygen: models based on a distribution in tau(o) or kappa(q)

The features of two popular models used to describe the observed response characteristics of typical oxygen optical sensors based on luminescence quenching are examined critically. The models are the 'two-site' and 'Gaussian distribution in natural lifetime, tau(o),' models. These models are used to characterise the response features of typical optical oxygen sensors; features which include: downward curving Stern-Volmer plots and increasingly non-first order luminescence decay kinetics with increasing partial pressures of oxygen, pO(2). Neither model appears able to unite these latter features, let alone the observed disparate array of response features exhibited by the myriad optical oxygen sensors reported in the literature, and still maintain any level of physical plausibility. A model based on a Gaussian distribution in quenching rate constant, k(q), is developed and, although flawed by a limited breadth in distribution, rho, does produce Stern-Volmer plots which would cover the range in curvature seen with real optical oxygen sensors. A new 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o) or k(q)' model is introduced which has the advantage over a Gaussian distribution model of placing no limitation on the value of rho. Work on a 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o)' model reveals that the Stern-Volmer quenching plots would show little degree in curvature, even at large rho values and the luminescence decays would become increasingly first order with increasing pO(2). In fact, with real optical oxygen sensors, the opposite is observed and thus the model appears of little value. In contrast, a 'log-Gaussian distribution in k(o)' model does produce the trends observed with real optical oxygen sensors; although it is technically restricted in use to those in which the kinetics of luminescence decay are good first order in the absence of oxygen. The latter model gives a good fit to the major response features of sensors which show the latter feature, most notably the [Ru(dpp)(3)(2+)(Ph4B-)(2)] in cellulose optical oxygen sensors. The scope of a log-Gaussian model for further expansion and, therefore, application to optical oxygen sensors, by combining both a log-Gaussian distribution in k(o) with one in tau(o) is briefly discussed.

Parallel Programming of General-Purpose Programs Using Task-Based Programming Models

The prevalence of multicore processors is bound to drive most kinds of software development towards parallel programming. To limit the difficulty and overhead of parallel software design and maintenance, it is crucial that parallel programming models allow an easy-to-understand, concise and dense representation of parallelism. Parallel programming models such as Cilk++ and Intel TBBs attempt to offer a better, higher-level abstraction for parallel programming than threads and locking synchronization. It is not straightforward, however, to express all patterns of parallelism in these models. Pipelines are an important parallel construct, although difficult to express in Cilk and TBBs in a straightfor- ward way, not without a verbose restructuring of the code. In this paper we demonstrate that pipeline parallelism can be easily and concisely expressed in a Cilk-like language, which we extend with input, output and input/output dependency types on procedure arguments, enforced at runtime by the scheduler. We evaluate our implementation on real applications and show that our Cilk-like scheduler, extended to track and enforce these dependencies has performance comparable to Cilk++.

Low pressure carbon dioxide solubility in lithium-ion batteries based electrolytes as a function of temperature. Measurement and prediction

We present in this study the effect of nature and concentration of lithium salt, such as the lithium hexafluorophosphate, LiPF6; lithium tris(pentafluoroethane)-trifluorurophosphate LiFAP; lithium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, LiTFSI, on the CO2 solubility in four electrolytes for lithium ion batteries based on pure solvent that include ethylene carbonate (EC), dimethyl carbonate (DMC), ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), diethyl carbonate (DEC), as well as, in the EC:DMC, EC:EMC and EC:DEC (50:50) wt.% binary mixtures as a function of temperature from (283 to 353) K and atmospheric pressure. Based on experimental solubility values, the Henry’s law constant of the carbon dioxide in these solutions with the presence or absence of lithium salt was then deduced and compared with reported values from the literature, as well as with those predicted by using COSMO-RS methodology within COSMOThermX software. From this study, it appears that the addition of 1 mol · dm-3 LiPF6 salt in alkylcarbonate solvents decreases their CO2 capture capacity. By using the same experimental conditions, an opposite CO2 solubility trend was generally observed in the case of the addition of LiFAP or LiTFSI salts in these solutions. Additionally, in all solutions investigated during this work, the CO2 solubility is greater in electrolytes containing the LiFAP salt, followed by those based on the LiTFSI case. The precision and accuracy of the experimental data reported therein, which are close to (1 and 15)%, respectively. From the variation of the Henry’s law constant with temperature, the partial molar thermodynamic functions of dissolution such as the standard Gibbs energy, the enthalpy, and the entropy, as well as the mixing enthalpy of the solvent with CO2 in its hypothetical liquid state were calculated. Finally, a quantitative analysis of the CO2 solubility evolution was carried out in the EC:DMC (50:50) wt.% binary mixture as the function of the LiPF6 or LiTFSI concentration in solution to elucidate how ionic species modify the CO2 solubility in alkylcarbonates-based Li-ion electrolytes by investigating the salting effects at T = 298.15 K and atmospheric pressure.

Body shadowing mitigation using differentiated LOS/NLOS channel models for RSSI-based Monte Carlo personnel localization

Research into localization has produced a wealth of algorithms and techniques to estimate the location of wireless network nodes, however the majority of these schemes do not explicitly account for non-line of sight conditions. Disregarding this common situation reduces their accuracy and their potential for exploitation in real world applications. This is a particular problem for personnel tracking where the user's body itself will inherently cause time-varying blocking according to their movements. Using empirical data, this paper demonstrates that, by accounting for non-line of sight conditions and using received signal strength based Monte Carlo localization, meter scale accuracy can be achieved for a wrist-worn personnel tracking tag in a 120 m indoor office environment. © 2012 IEEE.