59 resultados para suicide risk prediction model


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Solid particle erosion is a major concern in the engineering industry, particularly where transport of slurry flow is involved. Such flow regimes are characteristic of those in alumina refinement plants. The entrainment of particulate matter, for example sand, in the Bayer liquor can cause severe erosion in pipe fittings, especially in those which redirect the flow. The considerable costs involved in the maintenance and replacement of these eroded components led to an interest in research into erosion prediction by numerical methods at Rusal Aughinish alumina refinery, Limerick, Ireland, and the University of Limerick. The first stage of this study focused on the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to simulate solid particle erosion in elbows. Subsequently an analysis of the factors that affect erosion of elbows was performed using design of experiments (DOE) techniques. Combining CFD with DOE harnesses the computational power of CFD in the most efficient manner for prediction of elbow erosion. An analysis of the factors that affect the erosion of elbows was undertaken with the intention of producing an erosion prediction model. © 2009 Taylor & Francis.

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The global prevalence of diabetic nephropathy is rising in parallel with the increasing incidence of diabetes in most countries. Unfortunately, up to 40 % of persons diagnosed with diabetes may develop kidney complications. Diabetic nephropathy is associated with substantially increased risks of cardiovascular disease and premature mortality. An inherited susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy exists, and progress is being made unravelling the genetic basis for nephropathy thanks to international research collaborations, shared biological resources and new analytical approaches. Multiple epidemiological studies have highlighted the clinical heterogeneity of nephropathy and the need for better phenotyping to help define important subgroups for analysis and increase the power of genetic studies. Collaborative genome-wide association studies for nephropathy have reported unique genes, highlighted novel biological pathways and suggested new disease mechanisms, but progress towards clinically relevant risk prediction models for diabetic nephropathy has been slow. This review summarises the current status, recent developments and ongoing challenges elucidating the genetics of diabetic nephropathy.

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Viscosity represents a key indicator of product quality in polymer extrusion but has traditionally been difficult to measure in-process in real-time. An innovative, yet simple, solution to this problem is proposed by a Prediction-Feedback observer mechanism. A `Prediction' model based on the operating conditions generates an open-loop estimate of the melt viscosity; this estimate is used as an input to a second, `Feedback' model to predict the pressure of the system. The pressure value is compared to the actual measured melt pressure and the error used to correct the viscosity estimate. The Prediction model captures the relationship between the operating conditions and the resulting melt viscosity and as such describes the specific material behavior. The Feedback model on the other hand describes the fundamental physical relationship between viscosity and extruder pressure and is a function of the machine geometry. The resulting system yields viscosity estimates within 1% error, shows excellent disturbance rejection properties and can be directly applied to model-based control. This is of major significance to achieving higher quality and reducing waste and set-up times in the polymer extrusion industry.

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Mycosis fungoides (MF) is the most frequent type of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, whose diagnosis and study is hampered by its morphologic similarity to inflammatory dermatoses (ID) and the low proportion of tumoral cells, which often account for only 5% to 10% of the total tissue cells. cDNA microarray studies using the CNIO OncoChip of 29 MF and 11 ID cases revealed a signature of 27 genes implicated in the tumorigenesis of MF, including tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR)-dependent apoptosis regulators, STAT4, CD40L, and other oncogenes and apoptosis inhibitors. Subsequently a 6-gene prediction model was constructed that is capable of distinguishing MF and ID cases with unprecedented accuracy. This model correctly predicted the class of 97% of cases in a blind test validation using 24 MF patients with low clinical stages. Unsupervised hierarchic clustering has revealed 2 major subclasses of MF, one of which tends to include more aggressive-type MF cases including tumoral MF forms. Furthermore, signatures associated with abnormal immunophenotype (11 genes) and tumor stage disease (5 genes) were identified.

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To independently evaluate and compare the performance of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) prediction equation for estimating the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in four cohorts of adults with ocular hypertension.

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Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

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Several studies have suggested that men with raised plasma triglycerides (TGs) in combination with adverse levels of other lipids may be at special risk of subsequent ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined the independent and combined effects of plasma lipids at 10 years of follow-up. We measured fasting TGs, total cholesterol (TC), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) in 4362 men (aged 45 to 63 years) from 2 study populations and reexamined them at intervals during a 10-year follow-up. Major IHD events (death from IHD, clinical myocardial infarction, or ECG-defined myocardial infarction) were recorded. Five hundred thirty-three major IHD events occurred. All 3 lipids were strongly and independently predictive of IHD after 10 years of follow-up. Subjects were then divided into 27 groups (ie, 33) by the tertiles of TGs, TC, and HDLC. The number of events observed in each group was compared with that predicted by a logistic regression model, which included terms for the 3 lipids (without interactions) and potential confounding variables. The incidence of IHD was 22.6% in the group with the lipid risk factor combination with the highest expected risk (high TGs, high TC, and low HDLC) and 4.7% in the group with the lowest expected risk (P

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The removal of acid dyes, Tectilon Blue 4R, Tectilon Red 2B and Tectilon Orange 3G, from single solute, bisolute and trisolute solutions by adsorption on activated carbon (GAC F400) has been investigated in isotherm experiments. Results from these experiments were modelled using the Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherm theories with the Langmuir model proving to be the more suitable. The Ideal Adsorbed Solution (IAS) model was coupled with the Langmuir isotherm to predict binary adsorption on the dyes. The application of the IAS theory accurately simulated the experimental data with an average deviation of approximately 3% between modelled and experimental data.