Striking a Balance:Christianity and the Challenges of Long-Term Human Security in Zimbabwe

African evangelical/Pentecostal/charismatic (EPC) Christians-previously dismissed by scholars as apolitical-are becoming increasingly active socially and politically. This chapter presents a case study of an EPC congregation in Harare. It demonstrates how the congregation provides short-term human security by responding to the needs of the poor, while at the same time creating space where people can develop the "self-expression values" necessary for long-term human security. The case study also demonstrates that even under authoritarian states, religious actors can actively choose to balance the immediate demands of short-term human security with the sometimes competing demands of long-term human security. Policymakers can benefit from a greater understanding of how religious actors strike this balance and from a greater appreciation of the variability, flexibility, and religious resources of EPC Christians in such contexts.

Exceptionally Long Distance Transport of Volcanic Ash: Implications for Stratigraphy, Hazards and the Sourcing of Distal Tephra Deposits

Cryptotephras (tephra not visible to the naked eye) form the foundation of the tephrostratigraphic frameworks used in Europe to date and correlate widely distributed geologic, paleoenvironmental and archaeological records. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012) established the potential for developing a similar crypto-tephrostratigraphy across eastern North America by identifying multiple tephra, including the White River Ash (east; WRAe), St. Helens We and East Lake, in a peat core located in Newfoundland. Following on from this work, several ongoing projects have examined additional peat cores from Michigan, New York State, Maine, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to build a tephrostratigraphic framework for this region. Using the precedent set by recent research by Jensen et al.(in press) that correlated the Alaskan WRAe to the European cryptotephra AD860B, unknown tephras identified in this work were not necessarily assumed to be from "expected" source areas (e.g. the Cascades). Here we present several examples of the preservation of tephra layers with an intercontinental distribution (i.e. WRAe and Ksudach 1), from relatively small magnitude events (i.e. St. Helens layer T, Mono Crater), and the first example of a Mexican ash in the NE (Volcan Ceboruco, Jala pumice). There are several implications of the identification of these units. These far-travelled ashes: (1) highlight the need to consider "ultra" distal source volcanoes for unknown cryptotephra deposits,. (2) present an opportunity for physical volcanologists to examine why some eruptions have an exceptional distribution of ash that is not necessarily controlled by the magnitude of the event. (3) complicate the idea of using tephrostratigraphic frameworks to understand the frequency of eruptions towards aiding hazard planning and prediction (e.g. Swindles et al., 2011). (4) show that there is a real potential to link tropical and mid to high-latitude paleoenvironmental records. Jensen et al. (in press) Transatlantic correlation of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012). High-precision ultra-distal Holocene tephrochronology in North America. Quaternary Science Reviews, 52, 6-11. Swindles et al. (2011). A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe. Geology, 39, 887-890.

Superluminous Supernovae as Standardizable Candles and High-Redshift Distance Probes

We investigate the use of type Ic superluminous supernovae (SLSN Ic) as standardizable candles and distance indicators. Their appeal as cosmological probes stems from their remarkable peak luminosities, hot blackbody temperatures, and bright rest-frame ultraviolet emission. We present a sample of 16 published SLSN, from redshifts 0.1 to 1.2, and calculate accurate K corrections to determine uniform magnitudes in 2 synthetic rest-frame filter bandpasses with central wavelengths at 400 nm and 520 nm. At 400 nm, we find an encouragingly low scatter in their uncorrected, raw mean magnitudes with M(400) = -21.86 ± 0.35 mag for the full sample of 16 objects. We investigate the correlation between their decline rates and peak magnitude and find that the brighter events appear to decline more slowly. In a manner similar to the Phillips relation for type Ia SNe (SNe Ia), we define a ΔM 20 decline relation. This correlates peak magnitude and decline over 20 days and can reduce the scatter in standardized peak magnitudes to ±0.22 mag. We further show that M(400) appears to have a strong color dependence. Redder objects are fainter and also become redder faster. Using this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation, a surprisingly low scatter of between ±0.08 mag and ±0.13 mag can be found in peak magnitudes, depending on sample selection. However, we caution that only 8 to 10 objects currently have enough data to test this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation. We conclude that SLSN Ic are promising distance indicators in the high-redshift universe in regimes beyond those possible with SNe Ia. Although the empirical relationships are encouraging, the unknown progenitor systems, how they may evolve with redshift, and the uncertain explosion physics are of some concern. The two major measurement uncertainties are the limited numbers of low-redshift, well-studied objects available to test these relationships and internal dust extinction in the host galaxies.

A supernova distance to the anchor galaxy NGC 4258

The fortuitous occurrence of a type II-Plateau (IIP) supernova, SN 2014bc, in a galaxy for which distance estimates from a number of primary distance indicators are available provides a means with which to cross-calibrate the standardised candle method (SCM) for type IIP SNe. By applying calibrations from the literature we find distance estimates in line with the most precise measurement to NGC 4258 based on the Keplerian motion of masers (7:6 ± 0:23 Mpc), albeit with significant scatter. We provide an alternative local SCM calibration by only considering type IIP SNe that have occurred in galaxies for which a Cepheid distance estimate is available. We find a considerable reduction in scatter (σ<inf>I</inf> = 0:16 mag), but note that the current sample size is limited. Applying this calibration, we estimate a distance to NGC 4258 of 7:08 ± 0:86 Mpc.

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 au heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments,particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution.
Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014.
Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately.
Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is α = −3, instead of α = −2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment.

Is Longer-Distance Migration Slowing? An Analysis of the Annual Record for England and Wales since the 1970s

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971–2011, by Distance of Move

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal migration rates. This paper reports the results of research that investigates whether England and Wales have experienced any similar change in recent decades. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS) of linked census records, it examines the evidence provided by its 10-year migration indicator, with particular attention to a comparison of the first and latest decades available, 1971-1981 and 2001-2011. This suggests that, as in the USA, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter-distance (less than 10km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer-distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, largely corroborating the results of a companion study tracking the annual trend in rates of between-area migration since the 1970s (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Comet 322P/SOHO 1: An asteroid with the smallest perihelion distance?

We observed comet 322P/SOHO 1 (P/1999 R1) from the ground and with the Spitzer Space Telescope when it was between 2.2 and 1.2 AU from the Sun. These are the first observations of any SOHO-discovered periodic comet by a non-solar observatory, and allow us to investigate its behavior under typical cometary circumstances. 322P appeared inactive in all images. Its lightcurve suggests a rotation period of 2.8+/-0.3 hr and has an amplitude greater than ~0.3 mag, implying a density of at least 1000 kg m$^{-3}$, considerably higher than that of any known comet. It has average colors of g'-r' = 0.52+/-0.04 and r'-i' = 0.04+/-0.09. We converted these to Johnson colors and found that the V-R color is consistent with average cometary colors, but R-I is somewhat bluer; these colors are most similar to V- and Q-type asteroids. Modeling of the optical and IR photometry suggests it has a diameter of 150-320 m and a geometric albedo of 0.09-0.42, with diameter and albedo inversely related. Our upper limits to any undetected coma are still consistent with a sublimation lifetime shorter than the typical dynamical lifetimes for Jupiter Family Comets. These results suggest that it may be of asteroidal origin and only active in the SOHO fields of view via processes different from the volatile-driven activity of traditional comets. If so, it has the smallest perihelion distance of any known asteroid.