Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Obesity in People with Learning Disabilities: the impact of nurse led health screenings and health promotion activities

Background. Obesity appears to be more common among people with intellectual disabilities, with few studies focusing on achieving weight reduction. Aim. Firstly, to follow up people identified as overweight and obese following special health screening clinics and to determine the actions taken. Secondly, to evaluate the impact of health promotion classes on participants' weight loss. Methods. A clinic led by two learning disbaility nurses was held for all people aged 10 years and over (n=464) who attended special services within the area of one Health and Social Services Trust in Northern Ireland. In a second study, the nurses organised health promotion classes for 20 people over a 6 - 8 week period. Findings. The health screen identified 64% of adults and 26% of 10 - 19 year olds as being overweight or obese. Moreover, those aged 40 - 49 years who were obese had significantly higher levels of blood pressure. However, information obtained from a follow up questionnaire sent after 3 months suggested that of the 122 people identified for wiehgt reduciton, action had been taken for only 34% of them and only three were reported to have lost weight. The health promotion classes, however, led to a significant reduction in weight and body mass index scores. Conclusion. Health screening per se has limited impact on reducing obesity levels in this client group. Rather, health personnel such as general practitioners, nurses and health promotion staff need to work in partnership with service staff, carers and people with intellectual disabiltieis to create more active lifestyles.

Karyometry of the colonic mucosa

Objective: The study summarizes results of karyometric measurements in epithelial cells of the colorectal mucosa to document evidence of a field effect of preneoplastic development among patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma or adenoma.

Psychological problems in children with hemiplegia: a European multicentre survey

Objective: To describe the prevalence and determinants of psychological problems in European children with hemiplegia. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Home visits in nine European regions by research associates who administered standard questionnaires to parents. Patients: 279 children with hemiplegia aged 8–12 years were recruited from population-based case registers. Outcome measure: Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire comprising emotion, conduct, hyperactivity, peer problems and prosocial domains. An “impact score” (IS) measures the social and psychological impact of the child’s difficulties. Results: Children with hemiplegia had higher mean scores on the total difficulties score (TDS) compared with a normative sample (p<0.001). 48% and 57% of children, respectively, had borderline–abnormal TDS and IS. Significant, independent associations were observed between intellectual impairment and an increased risk for hyperactivity (odds ratio; OR 8.4, 95% CI 3.4 to 20.8), peer problems (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.7 to 5.5), psychological and social impact (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.6) when children with an intellectual quotient (IQ) <50 were compared with those with an IQ >70. Boys had an increased risk for conduct (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.7) and hyperactivity disorders (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.6). Poor self-esteem was associated with an increased risk for peer problems (OR 5.8, 95% CI 2.5 to 13.4) and poor prosocial skills (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.4 to 23.2) compared with those with high self-esteem. Other determinants of psychological adjustment were impaired communication, severe pain and living with a single parent. Conclusions: Many of the psychological problems identified are amenable to treatment. Special attention should be given to those at highest risk of developing psychological difficulties.

Rarity, pseudodiagnosticity and Bayesian reasoning

Three experiments investigated the effect of rarity on people's selection and interpretation of data in a variant of the pseudodiagnosticity task. For familiar (Experiment 1) but not for arbitrary (Experiment 3) materials, participants were more likely to select evidence so as to complete a likelihood ratio when the initial evidence they received was a single likelihood concerning a rare feature. This rarity effect with familiar materials was replicated in Experiment 2 where it was shown that participants were relatively insensitive to explicit manipulations of the likely diagnosticity of rare evidence. In contrast to the effects for data selection, there was an effect of rarity on confidence ratings after receipt of a single likelihood for arbitrary but not for familiar materials. It is suggested that selecting diagnostic evidence necessitates explicit consideration of the alternative hypothesis and that consideration of the possible consequences of the evidence for the alternative weakens the rarity effect in confidence ratings. Paradoxically, although rarity effects in evidence selection and confidence ratings are in the spirit of Bayesian reasoning, the effect on confidence ratings appears to rely on participants thinking less about the alternative hypothesis.

How many processes underline category-based induction? Effect of conclusion specificity and cognitive ability

Two studies investigated participants' sensitivity to the amount and diversity of the evidence when reasoning inductively about categories. Both showed that participants are more sensitive to characteristics of the evidence for arguments with general rather than specific conclusions. Both showed an association between cognitive ability and sensitivity to these evidence characteristics, particularly when the conclusion category was general. These results suggest that a simple associative process may not be sufficient to capture some key phenomena of category-based induction. They also support the claim that the need to generate a superordinate category is a complicating factor in category-based reasoning and that adults' tendency to generate such categories while reasoning has been overestimated.

Implicit and explicit processes in a hypothesis testing task

We present the results of two experiments investigating the factors that determine responding on the pseudo-diagnosticity task. In Expt I we manipulated people's beliefs about the degree to which an initial piece of evidence supported a focal hypothesis and found decreased pseudo-diagnostic (PD) responding when the evidence offered low support for the focal hypothesis. In Expt 2 we manipulated the instructions given to participants. We found that instructions to select evidence to help decide between the focal and the complementary hypotheses produced fewer PD responses than both instructions to decide whether the focal hypothesis was the case and instructions to decide whether its complement was the case. The results are interpreted within the framework of recent dual process theories of reasoning.

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.

Signal residuals and hermit crab displays: flaunt it if you have it!

In animal contests selection should favour information gathering regarding the likely costs and benefits of continued conflict, and displays may provide a means for contestants to gain information about the fighting ability or aggressive intent of competitors. However, there is debate over the reliability of such displays and low levels of deception may occur within otherwise honest signalling systems. Hermit crabs use displays involving the chelipeds during agonistic encounters. We examined how variation in chelae size in relation to body size, a determinant of fighting ability, affects their use in displays and the process and outcome of contests over gastropod shells. In accordance with deceptive use of an otherwise honest signal, we found that contestants with large chelipeds for their body size spent more time performing the cheliped presentation display. Moreover, cheliped residuals and displays influenced the escalation level of encounters. There was a positive association between cheliped displays and the occurrence of 'grappling', but a negative association between displays and the occurrence of shell fights, suggesting that displays may signal aggressive intent and a reluctance to back off or accept the more passive defender role in a fight. Furthermore, the smaller of the two contestants in shell fights had larger cheliped residuals compared to those smaller contestants not involved in shell fights, which is consistent with disrupted opponent assessment. This study adds to mounting evidence that when acting as a signaller, individuals for whom the display exaggerates competitive ability attempt to manipulate opponents, using the display more often. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marketing secondhand goods in late medieval England

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the main practitioners, goods, customers and locations of secondhand marketing activities in late medieval England. It questions how important was the economic role played by such markets and what was the interaction with more formal market structures?

Design/methodology/approach – A broad range of evidence was examined, covering the period from 1200 to 1500: regulations, court rolls, wills, manorial accounts, literature, and even archaeology. Such material often provided mere scraps of information about marginal marketing activity and it was important to recognise the severe limitations of the evidence. Nevertheless, a wide survey of the available sources can give us an insight into medieval attitudes towards such trade, as well as reminding us that much marketing activity occurred beyond the reach of the surviving documentation.

Findings – Late medieval England had numerous outlets for secondhand items, from sellers of used clothes and furs who wandered the marketplaces to craftsmen who recycled and mended old materials. Secondhand marketing was an important part of the medieval makeshift economy, serving not only the needs of the lower sectors of society but also those aspiring to a higher status. However, it is unlikely that such trade generated much profit and the traders were often viewed as marginal, suspicious and even fraudulent.

Originality/value – There is a distinct lack of research into the extent of and significance of medieval secondhand marketing, which existed in the shadowy margins of formal markets and is thus poorly represented in the primary sources. A broad-based approach to the evidence can highlight a variety of important issues, which impact upon the understanding of the medieval English economy.

UK Food Standards Agency Workshop Report: carbohydrate and cardiovascular risk

This report summarises a workshop convened by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) on 14 October 2008 to discuss current FSA-funded research on carbohydrates and cardiovascular health. The objective of this workshop was to discuss the results of recent research and to identify any areas which could inform future FSA research calls. This workshop highlighted that the FSA is currently funding some of the largest, well-powered intervention trials investigating the type of fat and carbohydrate, whole grains and fruit and vegetables, on various CVD risk factors. Results of these trials will make a substantive contribution to the evidence on diet and cardiovascular risk.

The genetics of coronary heart disease: The contribution of twin studies

Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

Age and sex-related differences in automaticity for mental addition

With age, children process information more rapidly, thus increasing access to and retrieval of information from memory. This speed of information processing is often explained in terms of automaticity. The present study explores this suggestion with respect to primary schoolchildren; 173 pupils aged between 7 and 11 years were tested using a chronometric paradigm. Analysis indicated a highly significant maturational trend towards greater automaticity across all age-groups. However, the results failed to provide evidence for sex differences in automaticity, nor was there evidence of an interaction between age and sex.

Distance between home and work: A multilevel analysis of individual workers, neighbourhoods, and employment sites in Northern Ireland

Abstract. We explore the distances between home and work for employees at twenty-eight different employment sites across Northern Ireland. Substantively, this is important for better understanding the geography of labour catchments. Methodologically, with data on the distances between place of residence (566 wards) and place of work for some 15 000 workers, and the use of multilevel modelling (MLM), the analysis adds to the evidence derived from other census-based and survey-based studies. Descriptive analysis is supplemented with MLM that simultaneously explores individual, neighbourhood, and site variations in travel-to-work patterns using hierarchical and cross-classified model specifications, including individual and ecological predictor variables (and their cross-level interactions). In doing so we apportion variability to different levels and spatial contexts, and also outline the factors that shape spatial mobility. We find, as expected, that factors such as gender and occupation influence the distance between home and work, and also confirm the importance of neighbourhood characteristics (such as population density observed in ecological analyses at ward level) in shaping individual outcomes, with major differences found between urban and rural locations. Beyond this, the analysis of variability also points to the relative significance of residential location, with less individual variability in travel-to-work distance between workers within wards than within employment sites. We conclude by suggesting that, whilst some general ‘rules’ about the factors that shape labour catchments are possible (eg workers in rural areas and in higher occupations travel further than others), the complex variability between places highlighted by the MLM analysis illustrates the salience of place-specific uniqueness.

Micro-environmental change as a trigger for granite decay in offshore Irish lighthouses: implications for the long-term preservation of operational historic buildings.

Following automation of lighthouses around the coastline of Ireland, reports of accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework have increased significantly with an associated deterioration in the historic structure and rise in related maintenance costs. Decay of granite stone- work primarily occurs through granular disintegration with the effective grusification of granite surfaces. A decay gradient exists within the towers whereby the condition of granite in the lower levels is much worse than elsewhere. The lower tower levels are also regions with highest rela- tive humidity values and greatest salt concentrations. Data indicate that post-automation decay may have been trig- gered by a change in micro-environmental conditions within the towers associated with increased episodes of condensation on stone surfaces. This in turn appears to have facilitated deposition and accumulation of hygro- scopic salts (e.g. NaCl) giving rise to widespread evidence of deliquescence in the lower tower levels. Evidence indicates that the main factors contributing to accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework are changes in micro-environmental conditions, salt weathering, chemical weathering through the corrosive effect of strongly alkaline conditions on alumino-silicate minerals within the granite and finally, the mica-rich characteristics of the granite itself which increases its structural and chemical susceptibility to subaerial weathering processes by creating points of weakness within the granite. This case study demonstrates how seemingly minor changes in micro-environmental conditions can unintentionally trigger the rapid and extensive deterioration of a previously stable rock type and threaten the long-term future of nationally iconic opera- tional historic structures.