Why do people non-demand reveal in hypothetical double referenda for public goods?

Hypothetical contingent valuation surveys used to elicit values for environmental and other public goods often employ variants of the referendum mechanism due to the cognitive simplicity and familiarity of respondents with this voting format. One variant, the double referendum mechanism, requires respondents to state twice how they would vote for a given policy proposal given their cost of the good. Data from these surveys often exhibit anomalies inconsistent with standard economic models of consumer preferences. There are a number of published explanations for these anomalies, mostly focusing on problems with the second vote. This article investigates which aspects of the hypothetical task affect the degree of nondemand revelation and takes an individual-based approach to identifying people most likely to non-demand reveal. A clear profile emerges from our model of a person who faces a negative surplus i.e. a net loss in the second vote and invokes non self-interested, non financial motivations during the decision process.

CoMFA and homology-based models of the glycine binding site of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor

Homology modeling was used to build 3D models of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor glycine binding site on the basis of an X-ray structure of the water-soluble AMPA-sensitive receptor. The docking of agonists and antagonists to these models was used to reveal binding modes of ligands and to explain known structure-activity relationships. Two types of quantitative models, 3D-QSAR/CoMFA and a regression model based on docking energies, were built for antagonists (derivatives of 4-hydroxy-2-quinolone, quinoxaline-2,3-dione, and related compounds). The CoMFA steric and electrostatic maps were superimposed on the homology-based model, and a close correspondence was marked. The derived computational models have permitted the evaluation of the structural features crucial for high glycine binding site affinity and are important for the design of new ligands.

Spatial and temporal ecology of Scots pine ectomycorrhizas

Spatial analysis was used to explore the distribution of individual species in an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal community to address: whether mycorrhizas of individual ECM fungal species were patchily distributed, and at what scale; and what the causes of this patchiness might be. Ectomycorrhizas were extracted from spatially explicit samples of the surface organic horizons of a pine plantation. The number of mycorrhizas of each ECM fungal species was recorded using morphotyping combined with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing. Semivariograms, kriging and cluster analyses were used to determine both the extent and scale of spatial autocorrelation in species abundances, potential interactions between species, and change over time. The mycorrhizas of some, but not all, ECM fungal species were patchily distributed and the size of patches differed between species. The relative abundance of individual ECM fungal species and the position of patches of ectomycorrhizas changed between years. Spatial and temporal analysis revealed a dynamic ECM fungal community with many interspecific interactions taking place, despite the homogeneity of the host community. The spatial pattern of mycorrhizas was influenced by the underlying distribution of fine roots, but local root density was in turn influenced by the presence of specific fungal species.

Are there species smaller than 1 mm?

The rapid advance in genetic sequencing technologies has provided an unprecedented amount of data on the biodiversity of meiofauna. It was hoped that these data would allow the identification and counting of species, distinguished as tight clusters of similar genomes. Surprisingly, this appears not to be the case. Here, we begin a theoretical discussion of this phenomenon, drawing on an individual-based ecological model to inform our arguments. The determining factor in the emergence (or not) of distinguishable genetic clusters in the model is the product of population size with mutation rate—a measure of the adaptability of the population as a whole. This result suggests that indeed one should not expect to observe clearly distinguishable species groupings in data gathered from ultrasequencing of meiofauna.

Emotional insecurity in the family and community and youth delinquency in Northern Ireland: A person-oriented analysis across five-waves

Background: Over one billion children are exposed worldwide to political violence and armed conflict. Currently, conclusions about bases for adjustment problems are qualified by limited longitudinal research from a process-oriented, social-ecological perspective. In this study, we examined a theoretically-based model for the impact of multiple levels of the social ecology (family, community) on adolescent delinquency. Specifically, this study explored the impact of children’s emotional insecurity about both the family and community on youth delinquency in Northern Ireland. Methods: In the context of a five-wave longitudinal research design, participants included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast (482 boys, 517 girls), drawn from socially-deprived, ethnically-homogenous areas that had experienced political violence. Youth ranged in age from 10 to 20 and were 12.18 (SD = 1.82) years old on average at Time 1. Findings: The longitudinal analyses were conducted in hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), allowing for the modeling of inter-individual differences in intra-individual change. Intra-individual trajectories of emotional insecurity about the family related to children’s delinquency. Greater insecurity about the community worsened the impact of family conflict on youth’s insecurity about the family, consistent with the notion that youth’s insecurity about the community sensitizes them to exposure to family conflict in the home. Conclusions: The results suggest that ameliorating children’s insecurity about family and community in contexts of political violence is an important goal toward improving adolescents’ well-being, including reduced risk for delinquency.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

The £ for lb challenge – a lose – win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme

Title: The £ for lb. Challenge – A lose - win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme in 2016.

Names: Damien Bennett, Declan Bradley, Angela McComb, Amy Kiernan, Tracey Owen

Background: Tackling obesity is a public health priority. The £ for lb. Challenge is the first country wide, workplace-based peer-led weight management programme in the UK or Ireland with participants from a range of private and public businesses in Northern Ireland (NI).
Intervention: The intervention was workplace-based, led by workplace Champions and based on the NHS Choices 12 week weight loss guide. It operated from January to April 2016. Overweight and obese adult workers were eligible. Training of Peer Champions (staff volunteers) involved two half day workshops delivered by dieticians and physical activity professionals.
Outcome measurement: Weight was measured at enrolment and 12 weekly intervals. Changes in weight, % weight, BMI and % BMI were determined for the whole cohort and sex and deprivation subgroups.
Results: There were 1513 eligible participants from 35 companies. Engagement rate was 98%. 75% of participants completed the programme. Mean weight loss was 2.4 kg or 2.7%. Almost a quarter (24%) lost at least 5% initial bodyweight. Male participants were over twice as likely to complete the programme and three times more likely to lose 5% body weight or more. Over £17,000 was raised for NI charities.
Discussion: The £ for lb. Challenge is a successful health improvement programme with important weight loss for many participants, particularly male workers. With high levels of user engagement and ownership and successful multidisciplinary collaboration between public health, voluntary bodies, private and public companies it is a novel workplace based model with potential to expand.

The pressure distribution along the stone column in soft clay when subjected to consolidation and foundation loading

The mechanism whereby the foundation loading is transmitted through stone the column (included in soft clay) has received less attention from researchers. This paper reports on some interesting findings obtained from a laboratory-based model study in respect of this issue. The stone column, included in the soft clay bed was subjected to foundation loading under drained conditions. The results show, probably for the first time, how the foundation loadings are transmitted through the column and indeed the existence of “negative skin friction” (a widely accepted phenomena in solid piles) in granular columns in soft clays.

The pressure distribution along stone columns in soft clay under consolidation and foundation loading

The mechanism whereby foundation loading is transmitted through the column has received little attention from researchers. This paper reports on some interesting findings obtained from a laboratory-based model study in respect of this issue. The model tests were carried out on samples of soft clay, 300 mm in diameter and 400 mm high. The samples were reinforced with fully penetrating stone columns, of three different diameters, made of crushed basalt. Four pressure cells were located along each stone column. The 60 mm diameter footing used in the model was supported on a clay bed reinforced with a stone column and subjected to foundation loading under drained conditions. The results show that the dissipation of excess pore water pressure developed during the initial application of total stresses, when the foundation was subjected to no loading, generated considerable stresses within the column, and that this was directly attributable to the development of negative skin friction. The pressure distributions in the column during foundation loading showed some complex behaviour.

Using simulation to assess cardiac first-responder schemes exhibiting stochastic and spatial complexities

A Monte-Carlo simulation-based model has been constructed to assess a public health scheme involving mobile-volunteer cardiac First-Responders. The scheme being assessed aims to improve survival of Sudden-Cardiac-Arrest (SCA) patients, through reducing the time until administration of life-saving defibrillation treatment, with volunteers being paged to respond to possible SCA incidents alongside the Emergency Medical Services. The need for a model, for example, to assess the impact of the scheme in different geographical regions, was apparent upon collection of observational trial data (given it exhibited stochastic and spatial complexities). The simulation-based model developed has been validated and then used to assess the scheme's benefits in an alternative rural region (not a part of the original trial). These illustrative results conclude that the scheme may not be the most efficient use of National Health Service resources in this geographical region, thus demonstrating the importance and usefulness of simulation modelling in aiding decision making.

The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.

Application of a mechanobiological simulation technique to stents used clinically

Many cardiovascular diseases are characterised by the restriction of blood flow through arteries. Stents can be expanded within arteries to remove such restrictions; however, tissue in-growth into the stent can lead to restenosis. In order to predict the long-term efficacy of stenting, a mechanobiological model of the arterial tissue reaction to stress is required. In this study, a computational model of arterial tissue response to stenting is applied to three clinically relevant stent designs. We ask the question whether such a mechanobiological model can differentiate between stents used clinically, and we compare these predictions to a purely mechanical analysis. In doing so, we are testing the hypothesis that a mechanobiological model of arterial tissue response to injury could predict the long-term outcomes of stent design. Finite element analysis of the expansion of three different stent types was performed in an idealised, 3D artery. Injury was calculated in the arterial tissue using a remaining-life damage mechanics approach. The inflammatory response to this initial injury was modelled using equations governing variables which represented tissue-degrading species and growth factors. Three levels of inflammation response were modelled to account for inter-patient variability. A lattice-based model of smooth muscle cell behaviour was implemented, treating cells as discrete agents governed by local rules. The simulations predicted differences between stent designs similar to those found in vivo. It showed that the volume of neointima produced could be quantified, providing a quantitative comparison of stents. In contrast, the differences between stents based on stress alone were highly dependent on the choice of comparison criteria. These results show that the choice of stress criteria for stent comparisons is critical. This study shows that mechanobiological modelling may provide a valuable tool in stent design, allowing predictions of their long-term efficacy. The level of inflammation was shown to affect the sensitivity of the model to stent design. If this finding was verified in patients, this could suggest that high-inflammation patients may require alternative treatments to stenting.

Discriminating Taxonomic Categories and Domains in Mental Simulations of Concepts of Varying Concreteness

Most studies of conceptual knowledge in the brain focus on a narrow range of concrete conceptual categories, rely on the researchers' intuitions about which object belongs to these categories, and assume a broadly taxonomic organization of knowledge. In this fMRI study, we focus on concepts with a variety of concreteness levels; we use a state of the art lexical resource (WordNet 3.1) as the source for a relatively large number of category distinctions and compare a taxonomic style of organization with a domain-based model (associating concepts with scenarios). Participants mentally simulated situations associated with concepts when cued by text stimuli. Using multivariate pattern analysis, we find evidence that all Taxonomic categories and Domains can be distinguished from fMRI data and also observe a clear concreteness effect: Tools and Locations can be reliably predicted for unseen participants, but less concrete categories (e.g., Attributes, Communications, Events, Social Roles) can only be reliably discriminated within participants. A second concreteness effect relates to the interaction of Domain and Taxonomic category membership: Domain (e.g., relation to Law vs. Music) can be better predicted for less concrete categories. We repeated the analysis within anatomical regions, observing discrimination between all/most categories in the left middle occipital and temporal gyri, and more specialized discrimination for concrete categories Tool and Location in the left precentral and fusiform gyri, respectively. Highly concrete/abstract Taxonomic categories and Domain were segregated in frontal regions. We conclude that both Taxonomic and Domain class distinctions are relevant for interpreting neural structuring of concrete and abstract concepts.

Finite element analysis of drilling of titanium alloy

Drilling is a highly demanding machining process due to complex tool geometry and the progressive material failure on the work piece. In this study, a 3D model is developed using commercial finite element software ABAQUS/Explicit. The proposed model simulates the drilling process by taking into account of the damage initiation and evolution of the work piece material, a contact model at the interface between drill bit and work piece and the process parameters. The results of the simulations demonstrate the effects of machining parameters on drilling. The results also confirm the capability and advantage of FE simulation of the drilling process. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.