Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

Self-generated expressions of residual complaints following brain injury

Following brain injury there is often a prolonged period of deteriorating psychological condition, despite neurological stability or improvement. This is presumably consequent to the remission of anosognosia and the realisation of permanently worsened status. This change is hypothesised to be directed partially by the socially mediated processes which play a role in generating self-awareness and which here direct the reconstruction of the self as a permanently injured person. However, before we can understand this process of redevelopment, we need an unbiassed technique to monitor self-awareness. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 individuals with long-standing brain injuries to capture their spontaneous complaints and their level of insight into the implications of their difficulties. The focus was on what the participants said in their own words, and the extent to which self-knowledge of difficulties was spontaneously salient to the participants. Their responses were subjected to content analysis. Most participants were able to say that they had brain injuries and physical difficulties, many mentioned memory and attentional problems and a few made references to a variety of emotional disturbances. Content analysis of data from unbiassed interviews can reveal the extent to which people with brain injuries know about their difficulties. Social constructionist accounts of self-awareness and recovery are supported.

Current brood size and residual reproductive value predict offspring desertion in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides

Life-history theory suggests that offspring desertion can be an adaptive reproductive strategy, in which parents forgo the costly care of an unprofitable current brood to save resources for future reproduction. In the burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides, parents commonly abandon their offspring to the care of others, resulting in female-only care, male-only care, brood parasitism, and the care of offspring sired by satellite males. Furthermore, when there is biparental care, males routinely desert the brood before larval development is complete, leaving females behind to tend their young. We attempted to understand these patterns of offspring desertion by using laboratory experiments to compare the fitness costs associated with parental care for each sex and the residual reproductive value of the 2 sexes. We also tested whether current brood size and residual reproductive value together predicted the incidence of brood desertion. We found that males and females each sustained fecundity costs as a consequence of caring for larvae and that these costs were of comparable magnitude. Nevertheless, males had greater residual reproductive value than females and were more likely than females to desert experimental broods. Our results can explain why males desert the brood earlier than females in nature and why female-only care is more common than male-only care. They also suggest that the tipping point from brood parasitism or satellite male behavior to communal breeding (and vice versa) depends on the value of the current brood relative to residual reproductive value.

Testing the stability of the benefit transfer function for discrete choice contingent valuation data

This paper examines the stability of the benefit transfer function across 42 recreational forests in the British Isles. A working definition of reliable function transfer is Put forward, and a suitable statistical test is provided. A novel split sample method is used to test the sensitivity of the models' log-likelihood values to the removal of contingent valuation (CV) responses collected at individual forest sites, We find that a stable function improves Our measure of transfer reliability, but not by much. We conclude that, in empirical Studies on transferability, considerations of function stability are secondary to the availability and quality of site attribute data. Modellers' can study the advantages of transfer function stability vis-a-vis the value of additional information on recreation site attributes. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Learning design contingent valuation (LDCV): NOAA guidelines, preference learning and coherent arbitrariness

We extend the contingent valuation (CV) method to test three differing conceptions of individuals' preferences as either (i) a-priori well-formed or readily divined and revealed through a single dichotomous choice question (as per the NOAA CV guidelines [K. Arrow, R. Solow, P.R. Portney, E.E. Learner, R. Radner, H. Schuman, Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation, Fed. Reg. 58 (1993) 4601-4614]); (ii) learned or 'discovered' through a process of repetition and experience [J.A. List, Does market experience eliminate market anomalies? Q. J. Econ. (2003) 41-72; C.R. Plott, Rational individual behaviour in markets and social choice processes: the discovered preference hypothesis, in: K. Arrow, E. Colombatto, M. Perleman, C. Schmidt (Eds.), Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour, Macmillan, London, St. Martin's, New York, 1996, pp. 225-250]; (iii) internally coherent but strongly influenced by some initial arbitrary anchor [D. Ariely, G. Loewenstein, D. Prelec, 'Coherent arbitrariness': stable demand curves without stable preferences, Q. J. Econ. 118(l) (2003) 73-105]. Findings reject both the first and last of these conceptions in favour of a model in which preferences converge towards standard expectations through a process of repetition and learning. In doing so, we show that such a 'learning design CV method overturns the 'stylised facts' of bias and anchoring within the double bound dichotomous choice elicitation format. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring the value to the public of pig welfare improvements: a contingent valuation approach

The welfare of farm animals is a policy area that has increased greatly in importance in recent years. When deciding whether a proposed policy should be implemented, it can be useful for policymakers to compare the costs of the proposed improvement with the perceived benefits. The costs are relatively straightforward to calculate but little is known about the benefits. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), a direct survey-based method, can be used to shed some light on this. This approach elicits the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the provision of some public good or service. This paper reports the results of a contingent valuation study of the value of welfare improvements for growing pigs. Attitudes and opinions with regard to form animal welfare are explored and WTP elicited for various pig welfare improvements including increases in space allowance, environmental enrichment and research into improved pig housing design. The results reveal a positive WTP for these improvements. However, it is also noteworthy that a significant proportion of the general public is willing to pay nothing for these improvements. Overall, the study illustrates the usefulness of the CVM approach as a tool for policymakers in assessing the merits of possible policy initiatives affecting the welfare of animals.

Parametric and non-parametric estimates of willingness to pay for forest recreation in Northern Ireland: A discrete choice contingent valuation study with follow-ups

In this study we show that forest areas contribute significantly to the estimated benefits from om outdoor recreation in Northern Ireland. Secondly we provide empirical evidence of the gains in the statistical efficiency of both benefit and parameter estimates obtained by analysing follow-up responses with Double Bounded interval data analysis. As these gains are considerable, it is clearly worth considering this method in CVM survey design even when moderately large sample sizes are used. Finally we demonstrate that estimates of means and medians of WTP distributions for access to forest recreation show plausible magnitude, are consistent with previous UK studies, and converge across parametric and non-parametic methods of estimation.

A note on the warm glow of giving and scope sensitivity in contingent valuation studies

This note develops a behavioral framework to classify individual contingent valuation (CV) respondents in terms of the warm glow and altruistic motives in their WTP responses. We suggest that at least five possible behavioral categories for CV responses may exist, depending on the type of underlying preferences and whether respondents are satiated or non-satiated with respect to the good. An empirical example suggests that the warm glow motive may be present in the majority of bids, although its presence does not necessarily preclude scope sensitivity to the quantity/quality of an environmental good. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Residual stress due to curing can initiate damage in porous bone cement: experimental and theoretical evidence

Residual stress due to shrinkage of polymethylmethacrylate bone cement after polymerisation is possibly one factor capable of initiating cracks in the mantle of cemented hip replacements. No relationship between residual stress and observed cracking of cement has yet been demonstrated. To investigate if any relationship exists, a physical model has been developed which allows direct observation of damage in the cement layer on the femoral side of total hip replacement. The model contains medial and lateral cement layers between a bony surface and a metal stem; the tubular nature of the cement mantle is ignored. Five specimens were prepared and examined for cracking using manual tracing of stained cracks, observed by transmission microscopy: cracks were located and measured using image analysis. A mathematical approach for the prediction of residual stress due to shrinkage was developed which uses the thermal history of the material to predict when stress-locking occurs, and estimates subsequent thermal stress. The residual stress distribution of the cement layer in the physical model was then calculated using finite element analysis. Results show maximum tensile stresses normal to the observed crack directions, suggesting a link between residual stress and preload cracking. The residual stress predicted depends strongly on the definition of the reference temperature for stress-locking. The highest residual stresses (4-7 MPa) are predicted for shrinkage from maximum temperature, in this case, magnitudes are sufficiently high to initiate cracks when the influence of stress raisers such as pores or interdigitation at the bone/cement interface are taken into account (up to 24 MPa when calculating stress around a pore according to the method of Harrigan and Harris (J. Biomech. 24(11) (1991) 1047-1058)). We conclude that the damage accumulation failure scenario begins before weight-bearing due to cracking induced by residual stress around pores or stress raisers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Holistic vs. an Attribute-based Approach to Agri-Environmental Policy Valuation: Do Welfare Estimates Differ?

Different economic valuation methodologies can be used to value the non-market benefits of an agri-environmental scheme. In particular, the non-market value can be examined by assessing the public's willingness to pay for the policy outputs as a whole or by modelling the preferences of society for the component attributes of the rural landscape that result from the implementation of the policy. In this article we examine whether the welfare values estimated for an agri-environmental policy are significantly different between an holistic valuation methodology (using contingent valuation) and an attribute-based valuation methodology (choice experiment). It is argued that the valuation methodology chosen should be based on whether or not the overall objective is the valuation of the agri-environment policy package in its entirety or the valuation of each of the policy's distinct environmental outputs.

Average household income, crime, and smoking behaviour in a local area: The Finnish 10-Town study

Social environments, like neighbourhoods, are increasingly recognised as determinants of health. While several studies have reported an association of low neighbourhood socio-economic status with morbidity, mortality and health risk behaviour, little is known of the health effects of neighbourhood crime rates. Using the ongoing 10-Town study in Finland, we examined the relations of average household income and crime rate measured at the local area level, with smoking status and intensity by linking census data of local area characteristics from 181 postal zip codes to survey responses to smoking behaviour in a cohort of 23,008 municipal employees. Gender-stratified multilevel analyses adjusted for age and individual occupational status revealed an association between low local area income rate and current smoking. High local area crime rate was also associated with current smoking. Both local area characteristics were strongly associated with smoking intensity. Among ever-smokers, being an ex-smoker was less likely among residents in areas with low average household income and a high crime rate. In the fully adjusted model, the association between local area income and smoking behaviour among women was substantially explained by the area-level crime rate. This study extends our knowledge of potential pathways through which social environmental factors may affect health. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income

We study the residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997-2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the -0.860 to -0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is -0.693 to -0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Friction Stir Welding Process Idealization on Residual Stress and Distortion Predictions for Future Airframe Assembly Simulations

The ability to accurately predict residual stresses and resultant distortions is a key product from process assembly simulations. Assembly processes necessarily consider large structural components potentially making simulations computationally expensive. The objective herein is to develop greater understanding of the influence of friction stir welding process idealization on the prediction of residual stress and distortion and thus determine the minimum required modeling fidelity for future airframe assembly simulations. The combined computational and experimental results highlight the importance of accurately representing the welding forging force and process speed. In addition, the results emphasize that increased CPU simulation times are associated with representing the tool torque, while there is potentially only local increase in prediction fidelity.