Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Range-edge effects promote clonal growth in peripheral populations of the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda

Existing in suboptimal conditions is a frequent occurrence for species inhabiting the cusp of their ecological range. In range-edge populations of plants, the scarcity of suitable habitat may be reflected in small population sizes which may result in increased self-pollination and/or inbreeding and an increase in the incidence of clonal reproduction. These factors may result in a decrease in levels of genetic diversity and a loss of potential adaptive variation that may compromise species' ability to cope with changes in their environment, an issue that is particularly relevant today with the current concern surrounding global climate change and its effect on species' distributional ranges. In the present study, we have compared the levels of clonal reproduction in the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda (L.) House in (1) populations from its main continuous distribution range, (2) populations occurring on the limits of the continuous range, and (3) peripheral populations outwith the species' continuous distribution range. Range-edge populations in Scotland and Sweden displayed significantly lower genotypic richness and diversity than those from the main area of the species' distribution in these countries. Populations from Ireland, which occur in the temperate zone rather than the boreal conditions that are the preferred habitat for the species, and which represent relict populations left over from cooler periods in the Earth's history, displayed no within-population genetic diversity, suggesting a complete lack of sexual reproduction. Furthermore, the genetic distinctiveness of the Irish populations, which contained alleles not found in either the Scottish or the Swedish populations, highlights the value of 'trailing edge' populations and supports the concept of 'parochial conservation', namely the conservation of species that are locally rare but globally common.

Water requirements as a bottleneck in the reintroduction of European roe deer to the southern edge of its range

Success rates of reintroduction programs are low, often owing to a lack of knowledge of site-specific ecological requirements. A reintroduction program of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus (L., 1758)) in a dry Mediterranean region in Israel provides an opportunity to study the bottleneck effect of water requirements on a mesic-adapted species. Four does were hand-reared and released in a 10 ha site consisting of an early succession scrubland and a mature oak forest. We measured daily energy expenditure (DEE) and water turnover (WTO) using the doubly labeled water technique during summer and winter. DEE was similar in the summer and winter, but there was a significant difference in WTO and in the source of gained water. In winter, WTO was 3.3 L/day, of which 67% was obtained from vegetation. In summer, WTO dropped to 2.1 L/day, of which only 20% was obtained from the diet and 76% was gained from drinking. When the water source was moved to a nonpreferred habitat, drinking frequency dropped significantly, but water consumption remained constant. In a dry Mediterranean environment, availability of free water is both a physiological contraint and a behavioral constraint for roe deer. This study demonstrates the importance of physiological and behavioral feasibility studies for reintroduction programs.

The effect of co-precipitation on cadmium(II) adsorption on hydrous aluminium(III) hydroxide in the presence of a range of chelates

The adsorption of cadmium(II) on freshly precipitated aluminium(III) hydroxide in the presence of a range of chelates has been investigated. By precipitating the metal, chelate and adsorbent together it is possible to change the pH variation of the metal-complex adsorption from anionic, ligand-like, binding to cationic binding. This is a general phenomenon and is explained by the formation of a ternary Al-O-Cd-L surface species. As a consequence of the preparation method, the pH edge is found to shift to lower pH values in the presence of the chelate which gives rise to an apparent increase in adsorption of Cd2+. This increase is, in general, most pronounced at [chelate] / [metal] > 1. Computer modelling shows that the observed trends result from the competition between Al-O-Cd-L and Al-L for the available aluminium( III) binding sites. The enhanced adsorption in the presence of phenylenediaminetetraacetate is anomalous since it is observed at a [ chelate] / [metal] approximate to 0.1 and cannot be interpreted by the simple competition model.

Evidence of Short-Range Screening in Shock-Compressed Aluminum Plasma

We have investigated the angular variation in elastic x-ray scattering from a dense, laser-shock-compressed aluminum foil. A comparison of the experiment with simulations using an embedded atom potential in a molecular dynamics simulation shows a significantly better agreement than simulations based on an unscreened one-component plasma model. These data illustrate, experimentally, the importance of screening for the dense plasma static structure factor.

Neural adaptations to resistance training - Implications for movement control

It has long been believed that resistance training is accompanied by changes within the nervous system that play an important role in the development of strength. Many elements of the nervous system exhibit the potential for adaptation in response to resistance training, including supraspinal centres, descending neural tracts, spinal circuitry and the motor end plate connections between motoneurons and muscle fibres. Yet the specific sites of adaptation along the neuraxis have seldom been identified experimentally, and much of the evidence for neural adaptations following resistance training remains indirect. As a consequence of this current lack of knowledge, there exists uncertainty regarding the manner in which resistance training impacts upon the control and execution of functional movements. We aim to demonstrate that resistance training is likely to cause adaptations to many neural elements that are involved in the control of movement, and is therefore likely to affect movement execution during a wide range of tasks.

Measurement of Short-Range Correlations in Shock-Compressed Plastic by Short-Pulse X-Ray Scattering

We have performed short-pulse x-ray scattering measurements on laser-driven shock-compressed plastic samples in the warm dense matter regime, providing instantaneous snapshots of the system evolution. Time-resolved and angularly resolved scattered spectra sensitive to the correlation effects in the plasma show the appearance of short-range order within a few interionic separations. Comparison with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations indicates that the shocked plastic is compressed with a temperature of a few electron volts. These results are important for the understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of strongly correlated matter for conditions relevant to both laboratory astrophysics and inertial confinement fusion research.

Investigating the Mechanism and Electrode Kinetics of the Oxygen vertical bar Superoxide (O-2 vertical bar O-2(center dot-)) Couple in Various Room-Temperature Ionic Liquids at Gold and Platinum Electrodes in the Temperature Range 298-318 K

The reduction of oxygen was studied over a range of temperatures (298-318 K) in n-hexyltriethylammonium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [N-6,N-2,N-2,N-2][NTf2], and 1-butyl-2,3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [C(4)dmim][NTf2] on both gold and platinum microdisk electrodes, and the mechanism and electrode kinetics of the reaction investigated. Three different models were used to simulate the CVs, based on a simple electron transfer ('E'), an electron transfer coupled with a reversible homogeneous chemical step ('ECrev') and an electron transfer followed by adsorption of the reduction product ('EC(ads)'), and where appropriate, best fit parameters deduced, including the heterogeneous rate constant, formal electrode potential, transfer coefficient, and homogeneous rate constants for the ECrev mechanism, and adsorption/desorption rate constants for the EC(ads) mechanism. It was concluded from the good simulation fits on gold that a simple E process operates for the reduction of oxygen in [N-6,N-2,N-2,N-2][NTf2], and an ECrev process for [C(4)dmim][NTf2], with the chemical step involving the reversible formation of the O-2(center dot-)center dot center dot center dot [C(4)dmim](+) ion-pair. The E mechanism was found to loosely describe the reduction of oxygen in [N-6,N-2,N-2,N-2][NTf2] on platinum as the simulation fits were reasonable although not perfect, especially for the reverse wave. The electrochemical kinetics are slower on Pt, and observed broadening of the oxidation peak is likely due to the adsorption of superoxide on the electrode surface in a process more complex than simple Langmuirian. In [C(4)dmim][NTf2] the O-2(center dot-) predominantly ion-pairs with the solvent rather than adsorbs on the surface, and an ECrev quantitatively describes the reduction of oxygen on Pt also.

The Reduction of Oxygen in Various Room Temperature Ionic Liquids in the Temperature Range 293-318 K: Exploring the Applicability of the Stokes-Einstein Relationship in Room Temperature Ionic Liquids

The voltammetry for the reduction of oxygen at a microdisk electrode is reported in six commonly used RTILs: [C(4)mim][NTf2], [C(4)mpyrr][NTf2], [C(4)dmim][NTf2], [C(4)mim][BF4], [C(4)mim][PF6], and [N-6.2.2.2][NTf2], where [C(4)mim](+) is 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium, [NTf2](-) is bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide, [C(4)mpyrr](+) is N-butyl-N-methylpyrrolidinium, [C(4)dmim](+) is 1-butyl-2,3-methylimidazolium, [BF4](-) is tetrafluoroborate, [PF6](-) is hexafluorophosphate, and [N-6.2.2.2](+) is n-hexyltriethylammonium at varying scan rates (50-4000 mV s(-1)) and temperatures (293-318 K). Diffusion coefficients, D, of oxygen are deduced at each temperature from potential-step chronoamperometry, and diffusional activation energies are calculated. Oxygen solubilities are also reported as a function of temperature. In the six ionic liquids, the Stokes-Einstein relationship (D proportional to eta(-1)) was found to apply only very approximately for oxygen. This is considered in relationship to the behavior of other diverse solutes in RTILs.