100 resultados para out-of-sample forecast
Resumo:
Tuning is a widespread technique to combine, date and interpret multiple fossil proxy archives through aligning supposedly synchronous events between the archives. The approach will be reviewed by discussing a number of literature examples, ranging from peat and tephra layers to orbital tuning and d18O series from marine and ice deposits. Potential problems will be highlighted such as the dangers of circular reasoning and unrecognised chronological uncertainties, and some solutions suggested. Fossil proxy research could become enhanced if tuning were approached in a more quantitative, reliable and objective way, and especially if individual proxy archives were non-tuned and kept on independent time-scales.
Resumo:
The recent emergence of high-throughput arrays for methylation analysis has made the influence of tumor content on the interpretation of methylation levels increasingly pertinent. However, to what degree does tumor content have an influence, and what degree of tumor content makes a specimen acceptable for accurate analysis remains unclear. Taking a systematic approach, we analyzed 98 unselected formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded gastric tumors and matched normal tissue samples using the Illumina GoldenGate methylation assay. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering showed 2 separate clusters with a significant difference in average tumor content levels. The probes identified to be significantly differentially methylated between the tumors and normals also differed according to the tumor content of the samples included, with the sensitivity of identifying the
Resumo:
PURPOSE:
To determine the in-field and out-of-field cell survival of cells irradiated with either primary field or scattered radiation in the presence and absence of intercellular communication.
METHODS AND MATERIALS:
Cell survival was determined by clonogenic assay in human prostate cancer (DU145) and primary fibroblast (AGO1552) cells following exposure to different field configurations delivered using a 6-MV photon beam produced with a Varian linear accelerator.
RESULTS:
Nonuniform dose distributions were delivered using a multileaf collimator (MLC) in which half of the cell population was shielded. Clonogenic survival in the shielded region was significantly lower than that predicted from the linear quadratic model. In both cell lines, the out-of-field responses appeared to saturate at 40%-50% survival at a scattered dose of 0.70 Gy in DU-145 cells and 0.24 Gy in AGO1522 cells. There was an approximately eightfold difference in the initial slopes of the out-of-field response compared with the a-component of the uniform field response. In contrast, cells in the exposed part of the field showed increased survival. These observations were abrogated by direct physical inhibition of cellular communication and by the addition of the inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibitor aminoguanidine known to inhibit intercellular bystander effects. Additional studies showed the proportion of cells irradiated and dose delivered to the shielded and exposed regions of the field to impact on response.
CONCLUSIONS:
These data demonstrate out-of-field effects as important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated irradiation fields with cellular communication between differentially irradiated cell populations playing an important role. Validation of these observations in additional cell models may facilitate the refinement of existing radiobiological models and the observations considered important determinants of cell survival.
Resumo:
ARK (‘Access Research Knowledge’) was set up with a single goal: to make social science information on Northern Ireland available to the widest possible audience. The most well-known and widely used part of the ARK resource is CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet), which is one of the largest on-line collections of source material and information and about the Northern Ireland conflict. The compilation of CAIN's new Remembering: Victims, Survivors and Commemoration section raised issues related to the sensitivity of the material, as it feeds into the fundamental debate on the legacy of the Northern Ireland conflict. It also fundamentally raises the question to what extent archiving is a neutral or political activity and necessitates a discourse on responsibility and ethics among social researchers. Experiences from the establishment of the Northern Ireland Qualitative Archive (NIQA) shed light on future possibilities with regard to qualitative archives on the Northern Ireland conflict.
Resumo:
This paper looks at inheritance through minimally-structured interviews with several generations of Kenyan families, seeking to explain that the how and why of poverty can be understood in the wider family context. Five main routes for ascending out of poverty were identified: (1) the gradual accumulation of resources due to income deriving from cash crops; (2) the gradual accumulation of resources due to income from non-farm work, including remittances from family member who have moved away for work; (3) the role of education, particularly skills training opposed to academic qualification, in helping provide employment; (4) accessing financial assets through support both from extended family members and from informal support mechanisms; (5) stability and benefits accruing from long-term strategic planning, including entrepreneurial activity. Both the ascent out of and the descent into poverty can be better conceived as processes, rather than due to chains of discrete events or specific ‘shocks’.
Resumo:
AIM: To understand the uniqueness of the experience of testing HIV positive from the perspective of pregnant women.
BACKGROUND: As more people learn of their HIV diagnosis through routine screening processes, it is timely to reflect on the impact of receiving an unexpected positive result.
DESIGN: A prospective qualitative study.
METHODS: This paper draws on the case studies of four women who were participating in a larger prospective qualitative study of reproductive decision-making, pregnancy and childbirth following HIV diagnosis. Multiple interviews were conducted following diagnosis during pregnancy, and, after the birth of their babies. Thematic data analysis was undertaken.
RESULTS: Drawing on Becker's theory of disruption, we document the 'sudden disjuncture' of their antenatal diagnosis and the embodied emotional struggle the women engaged in to create continuity in their lives. A diagnosis of HIV disrupted the women's biographies in terms of their health, relationships and social identity. As pregnant women, the threat of HIV was experienced most significantly in relation to their unborn child. However, their narratives also revealed how a diagnosis of HIV in the context of pregnancy, whilst traumatic, provided a focus for regaining continuity in their lives, as the baby became a metaphor for hope and orientation toward the future.
CONCLUSIONS: As HIV testing becomes more 'routine', the findings of this study serve to remind health professionals that a positive diagnosis continues to constitute a major trauma to individuals and families.
RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: We propose that appropriately educated nursing and midwifery staff could facilitate the 'meaning making' process that is required for newly diagnosed HIV positive persons to find a subjective sense of well-being in their lives.
Resumo:
We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.