The role of private care in the interval between diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in Northern Ireland: an analysis of Registry data

Objective: To examine the differences in the interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among women with breast cancer in Northern Ireland.

Design: A cross-sectional observational study.
Setting: All breast cancer care patients in the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry in 2006.
Participants: All women diagnosed and treated for breast cancer in Northern Ireland in 2006.
Main outcome measure: The number of days between diagnosis and initiation of treatment for breast cancer.

Results: The mean (median) interval between diagnosis and initiation of treatment among public patients was 19 (15) compared with 14 (12) among those whose care involved private providers. The differences between individual public providers were as marked as those between the public and private sector - the mean (median) ranging between 14 (12) and 25 (22) days. Multivariate models revealed that the differences were evident when a range of patient characteristics were controlled for including cancer stage.

Conclusions: A relatively small number of women received care privately in Northern Ireland but experienced shorter intervals between diagnosis and initiation of treatment than those who received care wholly in the public system. The variation among public providers was as great as that between the public and private providers. The impact of such differences on survival and in light of waiting time targets introduced in Northern Ireland warrants investigation.

The influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and body mass index:A cross-national time series analysis

Objective
To investigate the effect of fast food consumption on mean population body mass index (BMI) and explore the possible influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and BMI.

Methods
The within-country association between fast food consumption and BMI in 25 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1999 and 2008 was explored through multivariate panel regression models, after adjustment for per capita gross domestic product, urbanization, trade openness, lifestyle indicators and other covariates. The possible mediating effect of annual per capita intake of soft drinks, animal fats and total calories on the association between fast food consumption and BMI was also analysed. Two-stage least squares regression models were conducted, using economic freedom as an instrumental variable, to study the causal effect of fast food consumption on BMI.

Findings
After adjustment for covariates, each 1-unit increase in annual fast food transactions per capita was associated with an increase of 0.033 kg/m2 in age-standardized BMI (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.013–0.052). Only the intake of soft drinks – not animal fat or total calories – mediated the observed association (β: 0.030; 95% CI: 0.010–0.050). Economic freedom was an independent predictor of fast food consumption (β: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.16–0.37). When economic freedom was used as an instrumental variable, the association between fast food and BMI weakened but remained significant (β: 0.023; 95% CI: 0.001–0.045).

Conclusion
Fast food consumption is an independent predictor of mean BMI in high-income countries. Market deregulation policies may contribute to the obesity epidemic by facilitating the spread of fast food.

Preliminary analysis of organic Rankine cycles to improve vehicle efficiency

This paper presents the background rationale and key findings for a model-based study of supercritical waste heat recovery organic Rankine cycles. The paper’s objective is to cover the necessary groundwork to facilitate the future operation of a thermodynamic organic Rankine cycle model under realistic thermodynamic boundary conditions for performance optimisation of organic Rankine cycles. This involves determining the type of power cycle for organic Rankine cycles, the circuit configuration and suitable boundary conditions. The study focuses on multiple heat sources from vehicles but the findings are generally applicable, with careful consideration, to any waste heat recovery system. This paper introduces waste heat recovery and discusses the general merits of organic fluids versus water and supercritical operation versus subcritical operation from a theoretical perspective and, where possible, from a practical perspective. The benefits of regeneration are investigated from an efficiency perspective for selected subcritical and supercritical conditions. A simulation model is described with an introduction to some general Rankine cycle boundary conditions. The paper describes the analysis of real hybrid vehicle data from several driving cycles and its manipulation to represent the thermal inertia for model heat input boundary conditions. Basic theory suggests that selecting the operating pressures and temperatures to maximise the Rankine cycle performance is relatively straightforward. However, it was found that this may not be the case for an organic Rankine cycle operating in a vehicle. When operating in a driving cycle, the available heat and its quality can vary with the power output and between heat sources. For example, the available coolant heat does not vary much with the load, whereas the quantity and quality of the exhaust heat varies considerably. The key objective for operation in the vehicle is optimum utilisation of the available heat by delivering the maximum work out. The fluid selection process and the presentation and analysis of the final results of the simulation work on organic Rankine cycles are the subjects of two future publications.

Validation of a passive stereophotogrammetry system for imaging of the breast: A geometric analysis

The overall aim of this study was to assess the accuracy, reproducibility and stability of a high resolution passive stereophotogrammetry system to image a female mannequin torso, to validate measurements made on the textured virtual surface compared with those obtained using manual techniques and to develop an approach to make objective measurements of the female breast. 3D surface imaging was carried out on a textured female torso and measurements made in accordance with the system of mammometrics. Linear errors in measurements were less than 0.5 mm, system calibration produced errors of less than 1.0 mm over 94% over the surface and intra-rater reliability measured by ICC = 0.999. The mean difference between manual and digital curved surface distances was 1.36 mm with maximum and minimum differences of 3.15 mm and 0.02 mm, respectively. The stereophotogrammetry system has been demonstrated to perform accurately and reliably with specific reference to breast assessment. (C) 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of community based, specialist palliative care teams on hospitalisations and emergency department visits late in life and hospital deaths: a pooled analysis

Objective: To determine the pooled effect of exposure to one of 11 specialist palliative care teams providing services in patients’ homes.Design: Pooled analysis of a retrospective cohort study.Setting: Ontario, Canada.Participants: 3109 patients who received care from specialist palliative care teams in 2009-11 (exposed) matched by propensity score to 3109 patients who received usual care (unexposed).Intervention: The palliative care teams studied served different geographies and varied in team composition and size but had the same core team members and role: a core group of palliative care physicians, nurses, and family physicians who provide integrated palliative care to patients in their homes. The teams’ role was to manage symptoms, provide education and care, coordinate services, and be available without interruption regardless of time or day.Main outcome measures: Patients (a) being in hospital in the last two weeks of life; (b) having an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life; or (c) dying in hospital.Results: In both exposed and unexposed groups, about 80% had cancer and 78% received end of life homecare services for the same average duration. Across all palliative care teams, 970 (31.2%) of the exposed group were in hospital and 896 (28.9%) had an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life respectively, compared with 1219 (39.3%) and 1070 (34.5%) of the unexposed group (P<0.001). The pooled relative risks of being in hospital and having an emergency department visit in late life comparing exposed versus unexposed were 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.76) and 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) respectively. Fewer exposed than unexposed patients died in hospital (503 (16.2%) v 887 (28.6%), P<0.001), and the pooled relative risk of dying in hospital was 0.46 (0.40 to 0.52).Conclusions: Community based specialist palliative care teams, despite variation in team composition and geographies, were effective at reducing acute care use and hospital deaths at the end of life.

Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries

Objective: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies.

Methods: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed.

Results: In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m2 for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol.

Conclusions: CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.

Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective: To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences.

Design: Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US.

Setting: General population.

Participants: 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years

Main outcome measures: All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality.

Results: 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses.

Conclusions: Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.

Drug treatment of macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion: a network meta-analysis

Objective
To indirectly compare aflibercept, bevacizumab, dexamethasone, ranibizumab and triamcinolone for treatment of macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion using a network meta-analysis (NMA).

Design
NMA.

Data sources
The following databases were searched from January 2005 to March 2013: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-process, EMBASE; CDSR, DARE, HTA, NHSEED, CENTRAL; Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies
Only randomised controlled trials assessing patients with macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion were included. Studies had to report either proportions of patients gaining ≥3 lines, losing ≥3 lines, or the mean change in best corrected visual acuity. Two authors screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and undertook risk of bias assessment. Bayesian NMA was used to compare the different interventions.

Results
Seven studies, assessing five drugs, were judged to be sufficiently comparable for inclusion in the NMA. For the proportions of patients gaining ≥3 lines, triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg, bevacizumab 1.25 mg and aflibercept 2 mg had a higher probability of being more effective than sham and dexamethasone. A smaller proportion of patients treated with triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg or aflibercept 2 mg lost ≥3 lines of vision compared to those treated with sham. Patients treated with triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg, bevacizumab 1.25 mg and aflibercept 2 mg had a higher probability of improvement in the mean best corrected visual acuity compared to those treated with sham injections.

Conclusions
We found no evidence of differences between ranibizumab, aflibercept, bevacizumab and triamcinolone for improving vision. The antivascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs) are likely to be favoured because they are not associated with steroid-induced cataract formation. Aflibercept may be preferred by clinicians because it might require fewer injections.

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults and children: a cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroductionAutomated weaning systems may improve adaptation of mechanical support for a patient’s ventilatory needs and facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of ventilation. Our objective was to compare mechanical ventilator weaning duration for critically ill adults and children when managed with automated systems versus non-automated strategies. Secondary objectives were to determine differences in duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events.MethodsElectronic databases were searched to 30 September 2013 without language restrictions. We also searched conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and article reference lists. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data using random-effects modelling.ResultsWe identified 21 eligible trials totalling 1,676 participants. Pooled data from 16 trials indicated that automated systems reduced the geometric mean weaning duration by 30% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13% to 45%), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 87%, P <0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or medical ICU populations (42%, 95% CI 10% to 63%) and Smartcare/PS™ (28%, 95% CI 7% to 49%) but not with surgical populations or using other systems. Automated systems reduced ventilation duration with no heterogeneity (10%, 95% CI 3% to 16%) and ICU LOS (8%, 95% CI 0% to 15%). There was no strong evidence of effect on mortality, hospital LOS, reintubation, self-extubation and non-invasive ventilation following extubation. Automated systems reduced prolonged mechanical ventilation and tracheostomy. Overall quality of evidence was high.ConclusionsAutomated systems may reduce weaning and ventilation duration and ICU stay. Due to substantial trial heterogeneity an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized controlled trial is needed.

Walking Exercise for Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective: To systematically review the evidence examining effects of walking interventions on pain and self-reported function in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain.
Data Sources: Six electronic databases (Medline, CINAHL, PsychINFO, PEDro, Sport Discus and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched from January 1980 up to March 2014.
Study Selection: Randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials in adults with chronic low back pain, osteoarthritis or fibromyalgia comparing walking interventions to a non-exercise or non-walking exercise control group.
Data Extraction: Data were independently extracted using a standardized form. Methodological quality was assessed using the United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) system.
Data Synthesis: Twenty-six studies (2384 participants) were included and suitable data from 17 were pooled for meta-analysis with a random effects model used to calculate between group mean differences and 95% confidence intervals. Data were analyzed according to length of follow-up (short-term: ≤8 weeks post randomization; medium-term: >2 months - 12 months; long-term: > 12 months). Interventions were associated with small to moderate improvements in pain at short (mean difference (MD) -5.31, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) -8.06 to -2.56) and medium-term follow-up (MD -7.92, 95% CI -12.37 to -3.48). Improvements in function were observed at short (MD -6.47, 95% CI -12.00 to -0.95), medium (MD -9.31, 95% CI -14.00 to -4.61) and long-term follow-up (MD -5.22, 95% CI 7.21 to -3.23).
Conclusions: Evidence of fair methodological quality suggests that walking is associated with significant improvements in outcome compared to control interventions but longer-term effectiveness is uncertain. Using the USPSTF system, walking can be recommended as an effective form of exercise or activity for individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain but should be supplemented with strategies aimed at maintaining participation. Further work is also required examining effects on important health related outcomes in this population in robustly designed studies.

Multi-centre research in Australia:analysis of a recent National Health and Medical Research Council-funded project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Human research ethics committees provide essential review of research projects to ensure the ethical conduct of human research. Several recent reports have highlighted a complex process for successful application for human research ethics committee approval, particularly for multi-centre studies. Limited resources are available for the execution of human clinical research in Australia and around the world.

METHODS: This report overviews the process of ethics approval for a National Health and Medical Research Council-funded multi-centre study in Australia, focussing on the time and resource implications of such applications in 2007 and 2008.

RESULTS: Applications were submitted to 16 hospital and two university human research ethics committees. The total time to gain final approval from each committee ranged between 13 and 77 days (median = 46 days); the entire process took 16 months to complete and the research officer's time was estimated to cost $A34 143.

CONCLUSIONS: Obstacles to timely human research ethics committee approval are reviewed, including recent, planned and potential initiatives that could improve the ethics approval of multi-centre research.

Automated tumour annotation and analysis for molecular pathology using TissueMark (R)

Objective: Molecular pathology relies on identifying anomalies using PCR or analysis of DNA/RNA. This is important in solid tumours where molecular stratification of patients define targeted treatment. These molecular biomarkers rely on examination of tumour, annotation for possible macro dissection/tumour cell enrichment and the estimation of % tumour. Manually marking up tumour is error prone. Method: We have developed a method for automated tumour mark-up and % cell calculations using image analysis called TissueMark® based on texture analysis for lung, colorectal and breast (cases=245, 100, 100 respectively). Pathologists marked slides for tumour and reviewed the automated analysis. A subset of slides was manually counted for tumour cells to provide a benchmark for automated image analysis. Results: There was a strong concordance between pathological and automated mark-up (100 % acceptance rate for macro-dissection). We also showed a strong concordance between manually/automatic drawn boundaries (median exclusion/inclusion error of 91.70 %/89 %). EGFR mutation analysis was precisely the same for manual and automated annotation-based macrodissection. The annotation accuracy rates in breast and colorectal cancer were 83 and 80 % respectively. Finally, region-based estimations of tumour percentage using image analysis showed significant correlation with actual cell counts. Conclusion: Image analysis can be used for macro-dissection to (i) annotate tissue for tumour and (ii) estimate the % tumour cells and represents an approach to standardising/improving molecular diagnostics.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Surrogate-based analysis and optimization for the design of heat sinks with jet impingement

Heat sinks are widely used for cooling electronic devices and systems. Their thermal performance is usually determined by the material, shape, and size of the heat sink. With the assistance of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and surrogate-based optimization, heat sinks can be designed and optimized to achieve a high level of performance. In this paper, the design and optimization of a plate-fin-type heat sink cooled by impingement jet is presented. The flow and thermal fields are simulated using the CFD simulation; the thermal resistance of the heat sink is then estimated. A Kriging surrogate model is developed to approximate the objective function (thermal resistance) as a function of design variables. Surrogate-based optimization is implemented by adaptively adding infill points based on an integrated strategy of the minimum value, the maximum mean square error approach, and the expected improvement approaches. The results show the influence of design variables on the thermal resistance and give the optimal heat sink with lowest thermal resistance for given jet impingement conditions. 

Dietary fat and breast cancer mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The influence of dietary fat upon breast cancer mortality remains largely understudied despite extensive investigation into its influence upon breast cancer risk 

Objective: To conduct meta-analyses of studies to clarify the association between dietary fat and breast cancer mortality Design: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles published up to March 2012. Risk of all-cause or breast cancer specific death was evaluated by combining multivariable adjusted estimates comparing highest versus lowest categories of intake; and per 20 gram increase in intake of total and/or saturated fat (g/day) using random-effects meta-analyses. 

Results: Fifteen prospective cohort studies investigating total fat and/or saturated fat intake (g/day) and breast cancer mortality were included. There was no difference in risk of breast cancer specific death (n = 6; HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.52; P = 0.34) or all cause death (n = 4; HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 0.82, 3.6; P = 0.15) for women in the highest versus lowest category of total fat intake. Breast cancer specific death (n = 5; HR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.24; p <0.01) was higher for women in the highest versus lowest category of saturated fat intake. 

Conclusions: These meta-analyses have shown that saturated fat intake negatively impacts upon breast cancer survival.