Visualising Textual Knowledge about Risks to Aid Risk Communication

This paper demonstrates a potential application for latent semantic analysis and similar techniques in visualising the differences between two levels of knowledge about a risk issue. The HIV/AIDS risk issue will be examined and the semantic clusters of key words in a technical corpora derived from specific literature about HIV/AIDS will be compared with the semantic clusters of those in more general corpora. It is hoped that these comparisons will create a fast and efficient complementary approach to the articulation of mental models of risk issues that could be used to target possible inconsistencies between expert and lay mental models.

Hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children:a systematic review

Objective: To examine the evidence of an association between hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was performed using the databases PubMed, EMBASE, NHS Evidence, and Medline. Inclusion criteria were observational studies investigating hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children. Exclusion criteria were studies conducted on specialist groups (i.e. dancers) or hospital referrals. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using random effects models and heterogeneity was tested using ?(2)-tests. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for case-control studies. Results: Of the 80 studies identified, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Of these, 13 were included in the statistical analyses. Analysing the data showed that the heterogeneity was too high to allow for interpretation of the meta-analysis (I(2) = 72%). Heterogeneity was much lower when the studies were divided into European (I(2) = 8%) and Afro-Asian subgroups (I(2) = 65%). Sensitivity analysis based on data from studies reporting from European and Afro-Asian regions showed no association in the European studies [OR 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-1.26] but a marked relationship between hypermobility and joint pain in the Afro-Asian group (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.45-2.77). Meta-regression showed a highly significant difference between subgroups in both meta-analyses (p <0.001). Conclusion: There seems to be no association between hypermobility and joint pain in Europeans. There does seem to be an association in Afro-Asians; however, there was a high heterogeneity. It is unclear whether this is due to differences in ethnicity, nourishment, climate or study design.

The Value of Reducing Cancer Risks at Contaminated Sites: Are More Knowledgeable People Willing to Pay More?

We use conjoint choice questions to investigate people's tastes for cancer risk reductions and income in the context of public programs that would provide for remediation at abandoned industrial contaminated sites. Our survey was self-administered using the computer by persons living in the vicinity of an important contaminated site on the Italian National Priority List. The value of a prevented case of cancer is €2.6 million, but this figure does vary with income, perceived exposure to contaminants, and respondent opinions about priorities that should be pursued by cleanup programs. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

"New" and "Old" Social Risks: Life Cycle and Social Class Perspectives on Social Exclusion in Ireland

The life cycle concept has come to have considerable prominence in Irish social policy debate. However, this has occurred without any systematic effort to link its usage to the broader literature relating to the concept. Nor has there been any detailed consideration of how we should set about operationalising the concept. In this paper we argue the need for "macro" life cycle perspectives that have been influenced by recent challenges to the welfare state to be combined with "micro" perspectives focusing on the dynamic and multidimensional nature of social exclusion. We make use of Irish EU-SILC 2005 data in developing a life cycle schema and considering its relationship to a range of indicators of social exclusion. At the European level renewed interest in the life cycle concept is associated with the increasing emphasis on the distinction between "new" and "old" social risks and the notion that the former are more "individualised". Inequality and poverty rather than being differentially distributed between social classes are thought to vary between phases in the average work life. Our findings suggest the "death of social class" thesis is greatly overblown. A more accurate appreciation of the importance of new and old social risks requires that we systematically investigate the manner in which factors such as social class and the life cycle interact.

Arsenic in groundwater and its influence on exposure risks through traditionally cooked rice in Prey Vêng Province, Cambodia

Arsenic (As) contamination of communal tubewells in Prey Vêng, Cambodia, has been observed since 2000. Many of these wells exceed the WHO As in drinking water standard of 10 µg/L by a factor of 100. The aim of this study was to assess how cooking water source impacts dietary As intake in a rural community in Prey Vêng. This aim was fulfilled by (1) using geostatistical analysis techniques to examine the extent of As contaminated groundwater in Prey Vêng and identify a suitable study site, (2) conducting an on-site study in two villages to measure As content in cooked rice prepared with water collected from tubewells and locally harvested rainwater, and (3) determining the dietary intake of As from consuming this rice. Geostatistical analysis indicated that high risk tubewells (>50 µg As/L) are concentrated along the Mekong River's east bank. Participants using high risk tubewells are consuming up to 24 times more inorganic As daily than recommended by the previous FAO/WHO provisional tolerable daily intake value (2.1 µg/kgBW/day). However, As content in rice cooked in rainwater was significantly reduced, therefore, it is considered to be a safer and more sustainable option for this region.

Freshwater pearl mussels show plasticity of responses to different predation risks but also show consistent individual differences in responsiveness

Animals often show behavioural plasticity with respect to predation risk but also show behavioural syndromes in terms of consistency of responses to different stimuli. We examine these features in the freshwater pearl mussel. These bivalves often aggregate presumably to reduce predation risk to each individual. Predation risk, however, will be higher in the presence of predator cues. Here we use dimming light, vibration and touch as novel stimuli to examine the trade-off between motivation to feed and motivation to avoid predation. We present two experiments that each use three sequential novel stimuli to cause the mussels to close their valves and hence cease feeding. We find that mussels within a group showed shorter closure times than solitary mussels, consistent with decreased vulnerability to predation in group-living individuals. Mussels exposed to the odour of a predatory crayfish showed longer closures than control mussels, highlighting the predator assessment abilities of this species. However, individuals showed significant consistency in their closure responses across the trial series, in line with behavioural syndrome theory. Our results show that bivalves trade-off feeding and predator avoidance according to predation risk but the degree to which this is achieved is constrained by behavioural consistency. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Adolescents' educational outcomes in a social ecology of parenting, family, and community risks in Northern Ireland

This study examines the influence of social ecological risks within the domains of parenting, family environment, and community in the prediction of educational outcomes for 770 adolescents (49% boys, 51% girls, M = 13.6 years, SD = 2.0) living in a setting of protracted political conflict, specifically working class areas of Belfast, Northern Ireland. Controlling for religious community, age, and gender, youths' lower academic achievement was associated with family environments characterized by high conflict and low cohesion. School behaviour problems were related to greater exposure to community violence, or sectarian and nonsectarian antisocial behaviour. Youths' expectations about educational attainment were undermined by conflict in the family environment and antisocial behaviour in the community, as well as parenting low in warmth and behavioural control. Findings underscore the importance of considering family and community contributions to youths' educational outcomes. Suggestions regarding targeted interventions toward promoting resilience are discussed, such as assessing both child and family functioning, developing multidimensional interventions for parents, and building community partnerships, among others.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Genetic and genomic analyses of musculoskeletal differences between BEH and BEL strains

Berlin high (BEH) and Berlin low (BEL) strains selected for divergent growth differ 3-fold in body weight. We aimed at examining muscle mass, which is a major contributor to body weight, by exploring anatomical characteristics of the soleus muscle, its fiber numbers and their cross sectional area (CSA), by analysing transcriptome of the gastrocnemius and by initiating quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping. BEH muscles were 4-to-8 times larger compared to BEL strain. In sub-strain BEH+/+, mutant myostatin was replaced with a wild type allele, however, BEH+/+muscles still were 2-to-4 times larger compared to the BEL strain. BEH soleus contained 2-times more (P<0.0001) and 2-times larger in CSA (P<0.0001) fibers compared to BEL strain. In addition, soleus femoral attachment anomaly (SFAA) was observed in all BEL mice. One significant (chromosome 1) and four suggestive (chromosomes 3, 4, 6 and 9) muscle weight QTLs were mapped in 21-day old F2 intercross (n=296) between BEH and BEL strains. The frequency of SFAA incidence in the F2 and in the backcross to BEL strain (BCL) suggested the presence of more than one causative gene. Two suggestive SFAA QTLs were mapped in BCL, however, their peak markers were not associated with the phenotype in F2. RNA-Seq analysis revealed 2,148 differentially expressed (P<0.1) genes and 45,673 SNPs and >2,000 indels between BEH+/+ and BEL males. In conclusion, contrasting muscle traits, genomic and gene expression differences between BEH and BEL strains provide a promising model for the search of genes involved in muscle growth and musculoskeletal morphogenesis.

Development and single laboratory validation of an optical biosensor assay for tetrodotoxin detection as a tool to combat emerging risks in European seafood

Tetrodotoxin (TTX) is a potent neurotoxin emerging in European waters due to increasing ocean temperatures. Its detection in seafood is currently performed as a consequence of using the Association of Analytical Communities (AOAC) mouse bioassay (MBA) for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins, but TTX is not monitored routinely in Europe. Due to ethical and performance-related issues associated with this bioassay, the European Commission has recently published directives extending procedures that may be used for official PSP control. An AOAC-accredited high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method has now been accepted by the European Union as a first action screening method for PSP toxins to replace the MBA. However, this AOAC HPLC method is not capable of detecting TTX, so this potent toxin would be undetected; thereby, a separate method of analysis is required. Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) optical biosensor technology has been proven as a potential alternative screening method to detect PSP toxins in seafood. The addition of a similar SPR inhibition assay for TTX would complement the PSP assay in removing the MBA. The present report describes the development and single laboratory validation in accordance with AOAC and IUPAC guidelines of an SPR method to be used as a rapid screening tool to detect TTX in the sea snail Charonia lampas lampas, a species which has been implicated in 2008 in the first case of human TTX poisoning in Europe. As no current regulatory limits are set for TTX in Europe, single laboratory validation was undertaken using those for PSP toxins at 800 µg/kg. The decision limit (CCa) was 100 µg/kg, with the detection capability (CCß) found to be =200 µg/kg. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed at 200, 400, and 800 µg/kg and showed relative standard deviations of 8.3, 3.8, and 5.4 % and 7.8, 8.3, and 3.7 % for both parameters at each level, respectively. At these three respective levels, the recovery of the assay was 112, 98, and 99 %.

Overestimated crash risks of young and elderly drivers

Young and elderly drivers are reported to have markedly greater crash rates than drivers of other ages, but they travel less frequently and represent a minority of road users. Consequently, many crashes involving young or elderly drivers also involve drivers of middle age ranges who travel more frequently.